will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

I guess of today's basically sound results, this is the damning paragraph

Prospects

Sales have not developed as fast as we hoped despite the reputation the AeroBox
has gained in the aviation industry as a robust product with low experience of
structural damage. The aviation industry continues to experience severe
financial challenges exacerbated by escalating fuel prices. This, coupled with
the lengthy decision making process amongst many airlines and the effect of raw
material price increases means that ACS will not achieve break even before 2006.

Being 33% down on my recent buy in at average of 19.85p, is this a good opportunity to average down or good money after bad?

Anyone else with a view on this company which fits my parameters perfectly - new technology applied to existing essential market with ancillary applications outside main market. Maybe it's another DEMG - substitute airlines for NHS!

SD

was tempted when tipped in Sunday Business a while ago - but I believe even they seemed to think results were very speculative/uncertain re timing of new business wins and time they had before competition caught up with them - for now still not tempted given paragraph you quote - sounds like break even is a distant prospect and further cash call on market is not impossible before it is achieved - only my views but near term catalyst are not obvious.

Hi Oxman

On reflection, I have taken the plunge, averaging down from 19.85p to 17.00p. I had some cash to invest and was contemplating splitting it across two recent fallers with strong prospects. In the end I have put it all in ARX who have the best opportunity/fundamentals combined IMHO currently in my portfolio.

My previous comparison with DEMG was not accurate entirely - DEMG have no applications in other industries than the strict medical arena; ARX could have many outside the air freight business.

The product is proven and in service - 500 units with Saudi Arabian, Virgin and others. The plant is up to scale for full production. They have cash in the bank. They have 3 other strategic directions to pursue - refrigerated units (very exciting IMHO), other industrial applications (there must be many, including the military), and setting up a manufacturing base in China (a JV with Chinese capital and ARX know-how to service the massive growth in Chinese import/export could be a winning formula at no extra cost of capital to shareholders - see DOO in another context). The price has fallen to the price of the last placing at 14p - surely some support there. This is also the same as the December low - another support indicator. Since the oversold price below 14p first thing today, the price has bounced back to 14.25p and, in spite of a constant stream of sells, the price remains there - so the MMs are happy to take stock on at that price which puts me in good company.

So they won't break even until 2006. Well, I'm not going anywhere before then, so I can wait. It's going to become the industry standard by then, I think.

BUY - IMHO, DYOR

SD

good luck

Nah! Good judgement! lol :D

Christ what a nice Easter present I was hoing they might have had one contract whatever the size.
Britishbulls had this as a sell at 20p next time I will take note.

Good judgement obviously outweighed by bad luck today! What a downer! Still gonna hang in there till the inevitable happens. Although it would be good to get news of a few more sales this year so far.

SD

I have to confess that I had not appreciated that last Thursday was going to be results day and it was not until this evening that I have had a chance to see/analyse the information and digest what has been, to put it mildly, a rather sharp fall in sp.

For me ARX is only a small part of my total portfolio. I prefer to invest in the more well known companies as I only have the time and inclination for a 'hands off' approach to share ownership. Nevertheless I do occasionally dabble in the more speculative end of the market if the products on offer are of particular interest to me (not necessarily the best reason!) and then I tend to hold for some time.

I have held ARX for close on 18 months having bought when the sp was in the mid 20s. I was attracted to them primarily because I saw the potential of the composite material across a number of applications, and more specifically, saw the development of ARX's ULDs as addressing a real problem, that of maintenance and repair, associated with the aluminium boxes.

Do not underestimate what the Company has achieved over the past 18 months...development and trials of a basic ULD; development of further models; some orders (albeit probably at a heavy discount); development of a temp controlled ULD (in collaboration with Kelvin) which again addresses a real problem of transportation by air of temperature sensitive items such as vaccines; start-up of a factory in New Mexico and installation of some automatic production techniques; some manufacture of non ULD items (not fully detailed); work with the Chinese on possible collaborations. All this had to be done whilst demonstrating that their products and manufacturing processes are in compliance with the demands of the FAA/CAA. At the same time as all this was going on a dispute with Watermark had to be resolved with the consequence that a new approach to marketing ULDs needed to be developed. A pretty good job all round in my humble opinion.

Where there has been disappointment is in the failure of the Company to secure large volume ULD orders from the airline industry. I do not believe there is anything wrong with the products as such. They have been shown to be a significant improvement over those they replace and I am confident, as further real operational data come through, that that optimism will be further reinforced.

Although the Company has cited a number of factors for the lack of orders, it is my view that the high cost of fuel and the impact on airlines' management decision making has been paramount. I've seen it all before...management when confronted with what seems like one overwhelming cost issue begin to impose blanket freezes on all other expenditure. This is where ARX is suffering...at this stage in the fuel cost cycle, airline management just don't want to know about ARX and its ULDs (or anything elese non fuel) even if the business case is compelling. The good news, in my opinion, is that airline management will quickly begin to get used to these higher fuel prices and will in time revert to a more 'business as normal' approach and will again look more favourably at what the likes of ARX have on offer. Anyway there will come a point when older style ULDs will become irreparable and will need replacing thus forcing the issue.

One further point I would like to add is that Airlines can be remarkably conservative in their approach to change. When I started out as a young aeronautical engineer nearly half a century ago we could'nt develop new techniques quick enough...if it was new it must be better. No sooner had we thought about it than it seemed to be in service...great days! Today the tendency is for a slow initial build up and once everything is thoroughly tested and a certain penetration threshold is attained then the rest follow very quickly. I think that well could be the case with ARX and its ULDs. Sorry to drone on ...good luck everybody.

Javelin,

Very good post.

Javelin - music to my ears.

In exasperation at the treatmment of ARX's SP over the last couple of days, I have spent this evening re-reading the accounts from last week. Like you, my conclusion is identical to that which I posted last week when I bought more at 14.1p (see post number 219 ). It is a sound company that has achieved its entire immediate objective (and dealt with the court case) within a 12 month period. Its future prospects with basic ULD's, refrigerated units (look at the waste on transported pharmaceuticals - 25% or thereabouts), non-airline applications and a potential chinese JV are terrific. What a platform to look forward from.

Sales must come when airlines have bitten the fuel bullet and upped the ticket prices (air travel in real terms is about the cost of dinner for two at the Ritz(y) these days - we can all afford to pay for the additional fuel bills, if correctly and honestly marketed to us) and can get back to other strategic capital expenditure planning. Anyway freight is driven by India and China's exanding GDP, not passengers.

I'm sitting on a 33% loss since buying in on RHPSG's recommendation a couple of weeks ago, averaging down (dangerous, I know) as the price falls. I have no intention of selling and am happy to wait a year or so for the result. Any sign of a concerted upward momentum in the SP will have me reaching for my debit card again.

Let's hope the directors are able to give us a regular stream of postive news to counteract the recent knee-jerk reaction to one paragraph in the annual report.

Aerobox's technology is as innovative and as widely applicable as SEO's RF sealing technology which I am also heavily into.

If my employers don't find out how much time I spend on these BB's and give me a bonus this year, I shall be buying more at some stage.

Now's the time to buy in for those new to this stock - IMHO DYOR, but trust me! - no, seriously, wait for some good news and a positive upward indicator and then pounce hard.

Javelin, you have my permission to carry on droning on.

SD

I wonder what most of the membership of RHPSG are thinking probably wanting a refund.
I have to say prior to the news I really did not think it was going to be so unpalatable and was hoping there might be a little something that might lift the SP and thats why I held.
I am still holding licking my wounds at the moment.

RHPSG's recommendation was fair enough and nothing has changed - just lack of sales volume reported. We need patience, although I admit it is always deeply dispiriting t see the SP fall so far so soon after purchsase.

If you had watched and waited until now, would you buy at today's price, or have been put off by the recent fall?

SD

not really a street issue..i have held off because i wanted to see order flow come in...and am still waiting. i would rather miss the first 15% rise (or more) to see revenue and acceptance than just wait.

i really like this stock and the quality of this thread is really great and informative.

this will remain on the old watch page and i will pile in on news...

proptrade - already in (too high as usual!) I am sorely tempted by today's prices, but like you will sit and wait for a positive move up before committing more funds.

SD

it is just because orders=acceptance and like SEO, once you have landed the big one u can buy with confidence

Has anyone noticed that the SP now trades at par with the net asset value per share of 12.18p, as per accounts published last Thursday?

This is almost startgin to approach a value share - buy on asset value and hold long-term until something happens to revalue it.

Any takers? Go on - profit in a box for the taking, you know you want to!

SD

and the cash burn issue!

Well, I am assuming that they are attempting to generate orders that will cover the cash burn which I am well aware of. Meanwhile, I estimate that cash on the BS at 31st December is about a year and a third's operating cash with no gross profit - so it's sh*t, bust or fund-raise this year, no doubt about it. If they don't make any sales, this will also severely limit their development in other areas and good bye to acquisitions.

Let's see the trading statement at the half year, if not some news (like a nice fat juicy order to BA and Singapore Airlines) before then.

SD

Declared as oversold by the Daily Mail today, think I will go along with that.

Definitely oversold - agreeing with the DM, whatever next!

Just kicking myself I was away for Friday/Monday when the offer price dipped below 12p when I would have topped up big time. Have followed the price down from 20p to 14p so am well out of the money, but more than happy to sit tight, well over weight, and wait for reality to dawn over the next few months.

The paradigm remains intact and RHPS's Tom Bulford has talked to their finance director who says deals from the 3 US airlines that are not in Chapter 11 are on the way, whilst their CEO is at this very moment (or was last week) in China discussing JV possibilities with the Chinese Airline.

BUY - IMHO DYOR

SD