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Traders Thread - Thursday 12th February (BARC)     

Crocodile - 11 Feb 2004 21:46

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE +18 DAX +10 DOW -15 S&P -1 Nasdaq +1

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News
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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei  +95  Hang Seng +108   Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
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Dow closes at highest level in more than 2.5 years as investors cheer Greenspan's views

Unilever said its 2003 net profit had come in at 4.277 billion euros at the higher end of analysts' expectations, who had predicted a 2003 profit ranging between 3.531 billion and 4.288 billion euros. Niall FitzGerald will retire as chairman 

Barclays bank said on Thursday that full-year profit rose 20 percent to 3.845 billion pounds, matching analysts' expectations, boosted by growth at its investment banking business.

Rolls-Royce posted an 11.8 percent rise in profit to 285 million pounds beating forecasts of 271.75 million pounds. It said it expected to increase earnings in 2004 despite some challenging markets.

BT reported a 7% rise in Q3 earnings near the top end of forecasts, on a 2.6 percent decline in revenues. Underlying earnings per share rose to 4.4 pence for the three months with analysts forecasts at 4.3p.

lastminute.com posted a narrowing first-quarter loss, and said the second quarter had started well.

Centrica reported a 10.5% rise in annual earnings that met market forecasts, helped by strong growth at its North American operations. EPS rose to 16.8 pence from 15.2 pence, analysts had forecast of 16.9 pence.

Marconi said its Q3 loss widened slightly but that sales were still recovering. Its operating loss rose to 66 million pounds from 62 million and sales fell 11 percent to 408 million pounds

Glaxo, later.
ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

Alumasc (I), BT (Q3),  McBride Scottish & Newcastle (8 mths & 12 mths)

Barclays (F), Centrica (F), GlaxoSmithKline (F) London Bridge Software (F), Marconi Corp (F) Pendragon (F), Rolls-Royce (F), Unilever (Q4) , LastMinute.comBrewin Dolphin (AGM), Mitchells & Butlers (AGM)Q4 housebuilding data (09:00) Q4 ODPM housebuilding stats (09:00)

Analog Devices (Q1) Dell Computer (Q4) Safeway (Q4) NVIDIA (Q4)

13:30 Business Inventories 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Retail Sales 13:30 Retail Sales ex-auto

7.00pm Treasury Budget

 

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Data

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit
Currency Calc

ThePlayboy - 12 Feb 2004 13:33 - 22 of 44

345/50k jobless exp



363k act fig

retail sales worse down .3

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 14:00 - 23 of 44

Taken ages to get back into traders room for some reason,
loading slow - no doubt my machine...

LW No I'm none the wiser (not unusual - all ears no brain! lol)
not familiar with S1 etc...

Wonder what the DOW will do on opening...any ideas?

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:11 - 24 of 44

Stockbunny S stands for the support level which a share will normally get supported. (Its to do with Pivot Points - PP ) R are the Resistance levels.

If a share drops to S1 it will normally get support to stop it dropping any further. If it passes S1 it will get support again when it reaches S2. Very few shares pass S2, but those that make it pass S3 tend to keep falling, as all support has gone......... It works the opposite way for R1, R2 & R3, which why many people will purchase shares which have passed R3 on the grounds it will continue up.

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 14:18 - 25 of 44

Ah with you - I'm used to the support and resistance levels
but have never taken any notice of it being abbrev. Thanks!

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:29 - 26 of 44

I know what you mean about abbrev terminolgy # - I keep asking Playboy to spell out a lot of the abbrev. comments he makes - so I'm trying to use it so I can remeber it so I know what the traders are posting (especially over in the Traders room!)

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:54 - 27 of 44

I just closed my D4F account. They closed all my positions without telling me, and then informed me that because it was because I left less than $200 margin equivilent on the account. (So it's my fault for keeping my balance low) It wouldn't have been so bad, if they had closed one position (or part) to bring it in line - or even asked me to fund the account. But they closed everything. Of course its somewhere in the small print that they can do it. Well that me going back to old fashioned trading shares instead of CFD's.

ThePlayboy - 12 Feb 2004 15:01 - 28 of 44

Sorry to read that LW, your not the first and won,t be the last no doubt, try etrade Da imho, 3k to open!

Fundamentalist - 12 Feb 2004 15:18 - 29 of 44

tx melnibone - opened a long at 1103 GSK. You commented on SKP earlier - do you hold/trade them?

Also, anyone here trade GFRD (Galliford Try) - i say trade i have them as a long term investment. They've had a nice rise today and are starting to climb back to the levels they were at when ROK were trying to buy them - wonder if ROK are back or if there is another potential suitor?

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:36 - 30 of 44

Hi Fundamentalist,

I traded SKP up from their lows last year but left
them alone when they got to the 66/70p levels.

Too much jam priced in at that level for me with the
way they keep failing to meet profit estimates.

What they need to do is lower their estimates, along with
the share price, so then we can buy it again and profit
as they beat the lowered estimates. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:46 - 31 of 44

Sorry to hear you got closed out little woman.

I thought they were meant to phone you with a margin call?

I always keep a good margin spare so that I'm
in control. So if they ever manage to close me down it will
be due to a false spike.

Still checking out spreadbetting firms as a back up/alternative,
but spreadbetting margins seem to be variable, even on open
positions, so I'm being rather thorough in my research at the
moment.
I can see why a lot of spreadbetters, rather than CFD traders,
get wiped out.
It seems to need very careful position size management to avoid
stops being moved closer and activating on spikes.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:51 - 32 of 44

All the Indices seem to be comatose at the moment.

Waiting for Greenspan Part 2 ? :-)

Melnibone.

Fundamentalist - 12 Feb 2004 16:08 - 33 of 44

Do you know what time he speaks?

ThePlayboy - 12 Feb 2004 16:10 - 34 of 44

i thought 4

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 16:21 - 35 of 44

OK that's me out of here for the day now - still holding ULVR!
Will check it tomorrow, but for now I've seen enough red and blue
blocks of colour to last me a week (lol)
Be lucky people!!!

optomistic - 12 Feb 2004 19:44 - 36 of 44

LW
How do you calculate S3/R3? the other R & S's I use 'Crocs pivot point calc'

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 19:59 - 37 of 44

Hope you don't mind if I butt in little woman.

optomistic, use this and just extrapolate to S3.

The calculation for the new day are calculated from the High (H), low (L) and close (C) of the previous day.


Pivot point = P = (H + L + C)/3

First area of resistance = R1 = 2P - L
First area of support = S1 = 2P - H
Second area of resistance = R2 = (P -S1) + R1
Second area of support = S2 = P - (R2 - S1

May I suggest that if you are doing this for longer term positions
that you use the weekly High/ Low/ Close for the purpose of
performing your calculations.

Daily data contains far too much noise for longer position trades, imho.

Melnibone.

optomistic - 12 Feb 2004 20:27 - 38 of 44

Thanks Melnibone
All understood except this 'extrapolate to S3'
As said I use the PP calc for the rest- no problem, its just this S3/R3 I can't get.
optomistic

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 20:57 - 39 of 44

OK, P = High+Low+Close divided by 3.
So you are basically getting an average of the range.
R1 = 2P - L
R2 = (P - S1) + R1
R3 = (P - S2) + R2

S1 = 2P - H
S2 = P - (R2 - S1)
S3 = P - (R3 - S2)

I think I've got this right, I'm sure that Croc will leap in
and correct anything that is wrong.

Please double check before making any trading decisions, we
just give views here, not necessarily facts. ;-)

Melnibone.

seawatcher - 12 Feb 2004 21:13 - 40 of 44

Optomistic,

Can I suggest this link http://www.stelaronline.com/resource/pivot.htm

cheers,

sw

optomistic - 12 Feb 2004 21:15 - 41 of 44

Thanks Melnibone
After reading earlier post by LW consider 'S3' would be a usefull guide to setting stop losses. Appreciate trading decisions are always down to No 1.
Thanks again
optomistic
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