This thread is designed for punters to tip any share or shares they like from Blue Chips to Penny Stocks.
YOU CAN RAMP AS MUCH AS YOU LIKE or you can be a constructive market analyst, please yourself.
Drivers Tip, Buy Low Sell High

Pension Calculator
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United States Patent And Trademark Office.
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The UK Patent Office.
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Market Makers Methods of Stock Manipulation
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No idea m8 ..... All I now know is that CHNS stands for China Soto who seemingly make batteries or somesuch.

As for trading in general, I haven't a clue what to do..... Does one take cash out and hope to buy cheaper on the morrow or stay put and watch it all crumble further? ..... or do you really think there will be at least a significant DCB tomorrow?

Have we just witnessed the start of a crash or a healthy correction? As the worlds stock markets, commodity prices and property continued to climb higher last month, Warren Buffett, the legendary US investor, said at Berkshire Hathaways annual meeting that "like most trends, at the beginning its driven by fundamentals [but] at some point speculation takes over."

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A prime example of speculators getting onto the bandwagon was the rally in the gold price from $600/oz to over $700/oz in just over three weeks. The background fundamentals became more supportive over the period: US foreign policy was unravelling, the spectre of inflation was raising its ugly head, oil prices were firm and the dollar was falling. But the speed and scale of bullions rise suggests a prominent helping hand from speculators.
The problem about speculative excess is that you do not have a clue when precisely the music will stop. The important matter for investors, looking for longer-term rewards with more certainty, is where do we go from here?

In the last few weeks we have seen a shake-out in financial assets generally. Commodities, where recent speculative excess has been greatest, have been hit hardest. This has a knock-on effect on mining and energy stocks, which in turn have driven stock indices down.
But there is something bigger going on.

When market participants see other investors liquidating their positions, they panic, do the same and ask questions later. This is why markets tend to fall faster than they rise. Theres no such thing as an upward crash. The best explanation for the recent market upheavals is that investors have, en masse, switched to becoming more risk averse.

Is this change in mood justified? The proximate catalyst for the slump in share prices starting Wednesday last week was the disappointing US inflation numbers. Investors have been on a knife-edge in recent weeks, worrying that the Fed may overreact to economic data. Mr Bernanke makes less opaque utterances than his predecessor, and that transparency hasnt helped. So worse-than-expected inflation numbers provoked a sell- off in growth assets like commodities and equities, based on the view that the Fed will tighten US rates too much in the face of these figures.

But Mr Market has in effect overreacted on behalf of the Fed, and done Bernankes work for him. Lower stock prices and lower commodity prices give the Fed less reason to tighten! Meanwhile, it follows that any benign economic data could spark a relief rally. In other words equity and commodity markets have just endured a healthy correction.

Indeed, there is little proof that the recent rally in commodity prices is finished. The current commodity bull run dates back to late 1999 when gold and oil bounced off their 25-year lows. Its origins lie in a slow and inadequate supply response to a surge in Asian demand. In recent months the commodity markets have overreacted to this powerful idea, and the ensuing falls have acted as a reality check for commodity investors.

Markets do not go up in a straight line, however persuasive the fundamentals. But as long as demand continues to outstrip supply, the recent falls in commodity prices do not signal the end of the bull run.
Commodity cycles are inherently much longer than most participants imagine. It takes seven to 10 years to bring on a new oilfield, and five to seven years to get a copper mine up and running. Higher commodity prices now are the price we must pay for not investing in production infrastructure 20 years ago.

The supply response is also hampered by declining oil reserves in the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico, plus the current rage for nationalising energy resources amongst Latin American politicians. Moreover, tighter environmental regulations and tougher obligations on mining companies to provide social programmes for the local populations have added to the planning time for new resource projects.

There are also shortages of equipment in the mining sector. Chip Goodyear, Chief Executive of BHP Billiton, told analysts earlier this year that miners had to wait up to 18 months for the giant tyres used on earth moving equipment. Skilled manpower is also in short supply. Workers are mindful of their improved bargaining power and there has been an increase in strikes among mine workers.

All these factors continue to hamper the supply response in commodity markets. They will help underpin firmer prices in the long-term. Nor are we on the threshold of a severe shake-out, as was experienced in 1987. Some pundits cite eerie similarities between now and then.

The run-up to "Black Monday" was characterised by concerns about the widening US trade deficit, a falling dollar, fears of rising inflation and uncertainties surrounding the new Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan. But as Mark Twain put it "History does not repeat itself, it rhymes."

The capitalist world now is very different from that in 1987. There has been a 25% jump in the global labour force since 1990, as ex-communist states have become part of the market economy. It follows that the balance of power is shifting decisively in favour of the corporate sector and away from labour. Meanwhile, the emergence of low cost centres has slashed the prices of manufactured goods, while the spread of technology has enabled companies to run their enterprises more effectively.

Accordingly profits as a proportion of GDP are historically high. But there is no reason why it shouldnt be higher. Our world of brisk growth, lower manufacturing costs and low real rates is a more benign environment for equities than in 1987.

The FTSE 100 index and the FT-All Share are now more or less back where they started the year. Yet the P/E ratio of the blue chip index has fallen from 14 to 12 since then. This undemanding rating, together with low borrowing costs and the return of fear amongst investors, presents a buying opportunity for the shrewd rather than foolhardy investor.

driver: hoping for an opinion from you re ALY. Have you heard that there might be a deal at RGT or is this just company hype to keep the company afloat and the directors in a job? What chance of a deal at HML soon? VOG has recently taken a battering so could be a buying opportunity but PET has hardly moved so everybody must think that there is a deal there soon.

Realistic RE: ALY
I was looking for a retail stock LAURA seemed a good bet, low sp management that want a company recovery an announcement of a divi and now the persistent buying of their own shares, I have done well in retail in the past Arcada, Iceland , Sommerfied, Matalan. But dont let that be a guide some of it was luck Im sure.

Realistic, ReGen are a company worth researching, they have some very good stuff in their pipeline and I am confident that eventually they will become a heavyweight, that is assuming they are not taken over, though that might not be a bad thing: they are close to a deal of some sort, how much value it will have I do not know. I would advise you to check them out on their website - http://www.regentherapeutics.com/regen/. Profitability may be close......or not! I am holding the shares long term, have done for some time and am not fazed by the price fluctuations.
HML should have news regarding their potential licensing deal with an "un-named dermatological pharmaceutical company based in the USA" by 16th or 19th of June; mI hope it is good news!
kim

driver and kim. Thanks for the replies. It is always difficult to find out what is really going on. It seems that there are umpteen million RGT shares looking for a home with few buyers. HML must be a buy if they really are that close to a deal.

I have heard whispers that erx is very close to news and next week for hml. hope this is all good as I'm hanging on to mine. latest find for you to check out is IOV again awaiting news for that one but I bought in because the company looks a potential bagger last interims were v. good. what do you think driver??

Any views on The Carphone Wharehouse? I know they aquired Telequip which in turn has aquired Norcom....... Seams this company has a few sidelines and maybe a play at the bigger companies is coming...

Realistic ... I concur HML looks a pretty good bet at the current price though apparently they have had a couple of other deals collapse at the last hurdle. I suspect that is why the price is not already higher.

Moneyplus, I've got a soft spot for IOV as I had a nice little profit on it a little while back. Products look good IMO, although I haven't looked at the fundamentals recently so PDYOR.

Tell you what, I'm going to post a quick comment on the thread. Join me if you wish.

niceonecyril
Well done tipping BLVN it's up about a pound since your tip in April to 244p today.

EPY is going up again after a pull back-half year results due end of September. It's hard to buy many online-I'm expecting good rewards from this one!!

mp
I did spot that could be heading back to 22 leael,

See RIFT news today and also COH trading Update

Watch BRY (contracts flowing, no debt) and HYC (just keeps going up).
Alan

Alan - Noted & thanks

SIlvermede, I second that thought on Rift - just got in at 6.1p and feeling good about it :o)

EPY-half year results out on the 28th interest is definitely rising!!

Silvermede,
Did you notice? HYC +6.38% today as a result of the AGM.
Can't see anything specific eminating from it, but someone must have been impressed.
Alan

From another board interesting post.

Thought I might share my thoughts on market makers while I have a quiet moment, if anyone is interested. There's a lot of misinformation floating around on these boards, it might help people understand a bit more.

I think the key to understanding the market makers is to consider that they are only traders, just like us, buying and selling shares to make a profit. They want to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

The difference between them and us is that they take a very short term view - they like to keep a 'flat' book overall (holding no shares) to minimise risk. They also have influence over the price movements, as they set the prices.

They have two ways of making money - the first is through the spread, the second is through price movements. They can make money from the spread even with a flat price, by moving from the bid to the offer and back, buying and selling and profiting from the difference between the two. This doesn't really affect us, unless the spread is very wide in which case it's hard to profit.

It's when they make money from the share price movements that we should be interested, because the market maker's interests are the opposite of ours. For them to profit by buying cheap and sell expensive, we have to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. This is achieved in a few ways:

- If a share has been low for a period of time, people have sold out and moved on and the MMs have a holding, they will want to get rid of it. The SP will start rising for no apparent reason, causing people to speculate and buy into the rise. The price may then stabilise when the MMs have cleared their stock, or they may continue the game by dropping the price to encourage selling, and repeat.

- The MMs may go short on the stock. To do this they may raise or lower the price to encourage buying (on some stocks, people will buy in when it looks 'cheap', on others people will see a rise as precluding 'good news and will buy). The price will then fall, leaving you with a choice of holding for an unknown length of time to get your money back, or selling at a loss.

If the SP suddenly rises on good news, with a lot of people buying in, you can assume that the MMs will have previously held a flat book and unless they had prior warning of news and accumulated a decent number of shares through a 'treeshake' (suddenly dropping the price, then raising it again to frighten investors into selling) they will have gone short on the stock. They then have a large paper loss - they have sold shares they do not have and must buy back at some point to balance their books, and have sold them at an average price lower than the current price. Many investors will try to sell at the top, helping to balance the MMs books, but leaving them with a large loss. This is the main reason that stocks 'retrace' after a rise - the MMs will drive down the price as far and for as long as possible, to sap the moral of investors, and hopefully to encourage them to sell at the bottom. It's worth noting that when they do this, sometimes the buying still outweighs the selling. I believe they allow this in the hope that given enough time, the buying will dry up and people will lose confidence and start selling.

If the share price suddenly falls on bad news, the MMs will try to limit selling as much as they can, and will drop the price as fast as they can. This is so that when they do absorb all the sells they will accumulate shares at the lowest price possible, and hopefully sell them back into the market on any bounce or future rises.

Well, I hope that helps somebody.