The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Dexter

Kivver's gone to sleep but that may be no bad thing. Thanks for enquiry re Mary. I think she took a battering with the pancreatitis and we have been a pair of zombies arriving back with colds and jetlag. But Whistler was great with super snow from Christmas Eve. Mary even did some skiing but I think she finds it easier than walking just gliding down the piste with the greatest of ease!

Must admit to selling up my loss makers: EPO and PET; PET at 50p today. My reading of Kahn over the holiday said you should be able to see a 3:1 risk ratio between up and downsides. Have decided to run ASC hard as I believe Christmas trading has been phenomenal based on Hitwise figures - trading statement due on 21st; worth a few spankers. Have promised johngtudor that I will observe the charts in buying/selling. No doubt I'll be back in but you can't be everywhere at once. Good luck to all, whether or not I share the dosh!

Eric

Good Morning Pet Lovers!

Hamrin and S&L contracts will definitely be awarded before the elections my take by 15 January. The Iraqi government have already awarded the first contract to Everasia. The Iraqi government would want to send the message to the Iraqi population that they are creating business, jobs and starting the rebuilding of the country, to encourage them to vote. They would also want to send the message that the insurgents are not winning the war, otherwise the insurgency will gain more credibility, momentum, increase in size and impact.

Note with the 3 tenders so far, all involve tendering companies from mainly neutral countries, notwithstanding the fact that DSP is a British co, it is part of a consortium of 2 other companies, a Turkish and an Iraqi one, led by the Turkish one, Everasia. The inclusion of DSP may have been a deliberate a test case to see how the Iraqis would react to a British company winning a contract or/and whether companies from hostile countries are prepared to take the risk and work in Iraq and therefore set an example for others to follow.

On the whole the message the government is actually sending now is that small cos from neutral countries are being offered contract not big US/British companies. Note the failure of Shell losing on one of the biggest oil field contract in Kirkuk only this week. Now think about it: a month before the election the government offers a contract to a small Turkish company Everasia whilst at the same time refuses a contract to Shell, a big British(/Dutch)multinational. Can anyone really believe a company like Shell wasnt capable of tendering properly to end up losing one of the most lucrative oil contracts?

This certainly smacks of politics: the government want to reassure the people that big US/British multinational will not be in control of Iraqi oil. What better way of doing this than by offering contract to small companies from neutral countries, especially before the election. That is why the 2 contracts left will definitely be awarded before the election.

Even after the election, no matter who governs Iraq (a US puppet definitely the case) the small cos from neutral countries will always be offered contracts if only as a cover for other big US/British multinational to get theirs, all to make it look like every one is getting oil contracts not just big US/British multinational.

Especially so after the election, because that is when the rebellion will either increase 10 folds or die down, depending on the conduct of the newly elected government and its perceived relationship with the US. I have no doubt the US is aware of this and will therefore try to remain in the background and not push it by having contracts mainly going to US/British companies.

Remember the US is really bogged down in Iraq and has no control over the security situation now - read the article quoting Iraq security chief. They wouldnt risk more by being seen to have control over Iraq oil after the election. Think about it: it is the US that is in control of Iraq not Allawi and his government. For these 3 contracts that are going to small non US cos, doesnt the Iraqi government have the tacit agreement of the US? Further why no oil contract has gone to US companies so far? Because the US is aware of the political and the next security risks that a perceived control of Iraq oil will engender. Therefore even after the election and with their puppet in place the US just cannot afford to ride rough shot over Iraq oil even if that was the reason for going into Iraq in the first place. They just didnt expect such a resistance and now they know this will increase dramatically if they dont remain in the background after the elections.

Ironically, it is the chaos in Iraq that is the protector of the small cos like Pet; and contrary to some posters views, chaos will ensure that the likes of Pet get their slice of the cake. For the militants will protect the likes of pet and concentrate their attack on US/British multinationals.

One has to add, that unlike the pipelines which runs into 1000s kilometres, oil wells are well protected with 25,000 specially trained armed force set up by the ministry of oil. Another irony is that many of the members of this force would most likely be working for the insurgency. Remember last week suicide bomber, a member of the Iraqi forces working in A US military base, who blew himself up and killed about 25 US soldiers in their refectory.

This, I think, is not a threat to the likes of Pet but to the big multinationals. For again the insurgents would not want to attack all the companies and have Iraq on its knees and risk losing support of the population, which has only oil to survive. The resistance is not made up of few dozens mad Islamic fundamentalists as Bush and Blair want us to believe but a mainly Iraqi one who perceives the US, their tormentor for a long time, has engineered this war for oil. I have said this many times before and now the Iraqi security chief and western media confirm that the resistance is an Iraqi one. I will post the article quoting Iraq security chief following this one.

I may be accused of being anti-western by those who are unable to separate emotion from rational & objective assessment of the political realities on the ground.

Note the Iraqi security chief calling the insurgency resistance. He doesn't mention the word terrorists at all.

Note too his last quote at the end the article, which to me maens the US will be unable to fully control Iraq oil and therefore the likes of Pet have more chance to get work in Iraq.

AFX 03/01/05

Iraq battling more than 200,000 insurgents: intelligence chief

BAGHDAD, (AFX) - Iraq's insurgency counts more than 200,000 active fighters and sympathisers, the country's national intelligence chief told Agence-France Presse, in the bleakest assessment to date of the armed revolt waged by Sunni Muslims.

'I think the resistance is bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people,' Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani said in an interview ahead of the January 30 elections.

Shahwani said the number includes at least 40,000 hardcore fighters but rises to more than 200,000 members counting part-time fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence and logistics to shelter.

A senior US military officer declined to endorse or dismiss the spy chief's numbers.

'As for the size of the insurgency, we don't have good resolution on the size,' the officer said on condition of anonymity.

Past US military assessments on the insurgency's size have been revised upwards from 5,000 to 20,000 full and part-time members, in the last half year, most recently in October.

Insurgents have gained strength through Iraq's tight-knit tribal bonds and links to the old 400,000-strong Iraqi army, dissolved by the US occupation in May 2003 two months after the US-led invasion, he said. Asked if the insurgents were winning, Shahwani answered: 'I would say they aren't losing.'

Just found a headline on oiland gasinternational website, but i ca`t access it as i`m not a subscriber.

1/5/2005 Sudan grants E&P block to PetroSA.

Could this mean it`s imminent for PET getting one granted?

Dexter

By Peter Fabricius, The Business Report

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 5, 2005 -- PetroSA, South Africa's national oil company, is to send technicians to the Sudan to establish whether there are commercially exploitable quantities of oil in an exploration block that it has been allocated.

Last week, President Thabo Mbeki paid a visit to Khartoum where he met his Sudanese counterpart, President Omar al-Beshir. The two leaders agreed to encourage co-operation in the field of oil exploration.

The department of foreign affairs said in a statement before Mbeki's visit that several South African companies had interests in the Sudan including the Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA and PetroSA.

PetroSA had signed an agreement with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for exclusive oil concession rights for oil Block 14 in the Sudan.

"PetroSA has also concluded a capacity building agreement for the development of technical staff in Sudan."

Yesterday, PetroSA said in a statement that Sudan had awarded it a "study agreement" under which it would send technical personnel "to conduct the necessary tests to ascertain the availability of oil in the block allocated".

It added: "Sudan will also send personnel to PetroSA for training to enhance their technical know-how.

"The Sudan will benefit commercially from the venture, while obtaining the critical skills they need to develop their oil industry further.

"The significance of this agreement is that it is an African country-to country partnership, where a win-win solution is pursued in line with the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development."

The Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA concluded a $21 million (R119 million) contract with the Sudanese Railway Corporation for the rehabilitation of railways and rolling stock on December 9 2004.

During his visit, Mbeki travelled to Kenya to witness the signing of a major peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement of southern Sudan.

The movement would join Khartoum in a transitional government of national unity.

South Africa agreed that, with Unisa, it would train the movement's leadership in the skills needed to participate in the transitional government.

South Africa is the chair of the African Union (AU) committee on post-conflict reconstruction of war-affected areas in Sudan, and in that capacity, Mbeki visited Sudan's western Darfur region where warfare continues between the government in Khartoum and its militias and rebels, despite a ceasefire agreement.

Mbeki met government and other officials, including the SA National Defence Force members participating in the AU ceasefire commission.

He also met Sudanese displaced by the war.






Post an article on this thread:

Your nickname: dexter01




By Peter Fabricius, The Business Report

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 5, 2005 -- PetroSA, South Africa's national oil company, is to send technicians to the Sudan to establish whether there are commercially exploitable quantities of oil in an exploration block that it has been allocated.

Last week, President Thabo Mbeki paid a visit to Khartoum where he met his Sudanese counterpart, President Omar al-Beshir. The two leaders agreed to encourage co-operation in the field of oil exploration.

The department of foreign affairs said in a statement before Mbeki's visit that several South African companies had interests in the Sudan including the Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA and PetroSA.

PetroSA had signed an agreement with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for exclusive oil concession rights for oil Block 14 in the Sudan.

"PetroSA has also concluded a capacity building agreement for the development of technical staff in Sudan."

Yesterday, PetroSA said in a statement that Sudan had awarded it a "study agreement" under which it would send technical personnel "to conduct the necessary tests to ascertain the availability of oil in the block allocated".

It added: "Sudan will also send personnel to PetroSA for training to enhance their technical know-how.

"The Sudan will benefit commercially from the venture, while obtaining the critical skills they need to develop their oil industry further.

"The significance of this agreement is that it is an African country-to country partnership, where a win-win solution is pursued in line with the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development."

The Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA concluded a $21 million (R119 million) contract with the Sudanese Railway Corporation for the rehabilitation of railways and rolling stock on December 9 2004.

During his visit, Mbeki travelled to Kenya to witness the signing of a major peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement of southern Sudan.

The movement would join Khartoum in a transitional government of national unity.

South Africa agreed that, with Unisa, it would train the movement's leadership in the skills needed to participate in the transitional government.

South Africa is the chair of the African Union (AU) committee on post-conflict reconstruction of war-affected areas in Sudan, and in that capacity, Mbeki visited Sudan's western Darfur region where warfare continues between the government in Khartoum and its militias and rebels, despite a ceasefire agreement.

Mbeki met government and other officials, including the SA National Defence Force members participating in the AU ceasefire commission.

He also met Sudanese displaced by the war.

This is from the Sudan Tribune today;

By Edmund Blair

CAIRO, Jan 6 (Reuters) - An imminent peace deal to end war in southern Sudan will encourage expansion in an oil industry that has managed surprising growth despite two decades of war.

Although Western majors are likely to remain cautious on Sudan, the peace deal is likely to facilitate the operations of the Asian firms that have led developments in recent years.

The peace deal, to be signed on Sunday in Kenya, will end a war that erupted in 1983 in the south. After intense bargaining between the government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), southerners secured half the oil revenues.

The deal will not cover the separate conflict that flared up in western Darfur last year and which has made some 1.6 million people homeless.

Sudan's oil production, currently around 320,000 barrels per day (bpd), comes mainly from fields in the south, with Chinese, Malaysian and Indian firms the big investors.

"Sudan is attractive. There is large exploration upside. It is the kind of place majors would be interested in, but the risks will remain quite high until Sudan is able to resolve its internal problems," said Teju Akande, analyst at Edinburgh-based energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

"The country has been getting investment, not from the Western world, but it has been getting investment from the East."

Analysts say state firms working to secure supply for Asia's energy-hungry economies face less shareholder pressure over issues such as human rights than Western firms, many of whom have quit or reduced their presence in recent years.

With one new field ramping up production this year and another, giant, development set for first oil, and total output expected to reach 500,000 bpd in 2005, the country's petroleum industry has flourished under Asian influence.

UNTAPPED EXPLORATION POTENTIAL

Estimates of reserves range from more than 560 million barrels to over one billion, but analysts say swathes of the country are unexplored so actual reserves could be much higher.

That investment has encouraged an optimistic outlook from Sudan's government.

In December, oil minister Awad Ahmed al-Jaz said Sudan had signed a new prospecting agreement with an unnamed firm for one of its exploration blocks, and that at least one further deal on untapped acreage was expected in 2005.

As well as pushing its oil production, Sudan has struck a deal with China to refurbish and expand its Khartoum refinery.

The government is also negotiating with Indian, Malaysian and European oil firms to build a new 100,000 barrel per day refinery in Port Sudan that would expand export opportunities.

Asian dominance of prime sites has reduced openings for Western firms, if they do seek to build up their presence.

For the time being, they are likely to sit and wait for a resolution to the conflict in Darfur, analysts say.

DARFUR FAR FROM PRODUCTION AREAS

The main areas of fighting in Darfur are hundreds of km (miles) from Sudan's key Muglad Basin production area.

Consequently the threat to the oil industry from the Darfur conflict comes more in the form of international pressure over the government's behaviour in the crisis, including threats of sanctions, although a rebel group did attack a small South Darfur oil pumping station in December.

"Even if the conflict in Darfur is not related to the oil issue, the fact that the country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis due to conflict cannot be overlooked by anyone," said Christine Batruch, vice-president of corporate responsibility at Sweden's Lundin Petroleum AB.

She said Lundin, which has reduced its activities in Sudan but retains an interest in one block, would plan its activities for 2005 after the signing of the north-south deal.

But she added: "Most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies and as such there are limited opportunities."

Total said in December it had reached a deal with the government to update terms on a block it operated until security issues forced it to suspend activities in 1985, but added that operations could only resume once peace was restored.

"The conflict in Darfur could potentially impact security in the south, in which case we would have to assess the situation," a spokesman said from Paris.

Talk of imposing sanctions on Sudan over the Darfur conflict has added to uncertainty. But analysts said China, with its interests in Sudanese oil output and its veto power at the United Nations, would likely oppose any U.N. sanctions move.

go to www.vitrade.com/map_of_oil_concessions.htm this shows all the blocks in Sudan

Dexter

This will go up to a million pound tomorrow.

Come back for a look see...........

Nothing new then except Eric has sold his shares.

Good luck Eric and Mrs Eric.

Kivver
Have you got that Iraqi pigeon flying by your window again?

Kivver, can you be more precise, is this a million pounds or a million pounds per share?
Chris

oh dear me! 60p would be nice on a Sudan rns, a further 40% rise on S & L and lift off with Block 6! millions not!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Has anyone investigated the source of the Reuters article that seems to have lost many investors money on PET???

someone on the other side has reported, i believe, but cant remember who and when? sorry

Sandrew - lol, i cant believe some people are still coming on here ramping this share to death. I and a lot others lost a lot of money, im not bitter. You know what they say 'if you cant beat em join em'. Yes i do think a million pound per share tomorrow. 'Get up early, set them alarm clocks'

By Peter Fabricius, The Business Report

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 5, 2005 -- PetroSA, South Africa's national oil company, is to send technicians to the Sudan to establish whether there are commercially exploitable quantities of oil in an exploration block that it has been allocated.

Last week, President Thabo Mbeki paid a visit to Khartoum where he met his Sudanese counterpart, President Omar al-Beshir. The two leaders agreed to encourage co-operation in the field of oil exploration.

The department of foreign affairs said in a statement before Mbeki's visit that several South African companies had interests in the Sudan including the Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA and PetroSA.

PetroSA had signed an agreement with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for exclusive oil concession rights for oil Block 14 in the Sudan.

"PetroSA has also concluded a capacity building agreement for the development of technical staff in Sudan."

Yesterday, PetroSA said in a statement that Sudan had awarded it a "study agreement" under which it would send technical personnel "to conduct the necessary tests to ascertain the availability of oil in the block allocated".

It added: "Sudan will also send personnel to PetroSA for training to enhance their technical know-how.

"The Sudan will benefit commercially from the venture, while obtaining the critical skills they need to develop their oil industry further.

"The significance of this agreement is that it is an African country-to country partnership, where a win-win solution is pursued in line with the objectives of the New Partnership for Africa's Development."

The Global Railway Engineering Consortium of SA concluded a $21 million (R119 million) contract with the Sudanese Railway Corporation for the rehabilitation of railways and rolling stock on December 9 2004.

During his visit, Mbeki travelled to Kenya to witness the signing of a major peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement of southern Sudan.

The movement would join Khartoum in a transitional government of national unity.

South Africa agreed that, with Unisa, it would train the movement's leadership in the skills needed to participate in the transitional government.

South Africa is the chair of the African Union (AU) committee on post-conflict reconstruction of war-affected areas in Sudan, and in that capacity, Mbeki visited Sudan's western Darfur region where warfare continues between the government in Khartoum and its militias and rebels, despite a ceasefire agreement.

Mbeki met government and other officials, including the SA National Defence Force members participating in the AU ceasefire commission.

He also met Sudanese displaced by the war.

Good Morning Pet Lovers

By Peter Fabricius, The Business Report

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 5, 2005

PetroSA had signed an agreement with the Sudanese state oil company, Sudapet, for exclusive oil concession rights for oil Block 14 in the Sudan.

"PetroSA has also concluded a capacity building agreement for the development of technical staff in Sudan."
....................................................

Pet has a joint venture with the Sudapet (=Sudan/Pet, hey Bingo!)the Sudanese state oil company on Block 15. Surely Pet has a more than 50% chance of getting a contract as the Sudanese government would want to keep as much control as possible over its oil and thus award the contract to its own company joint venture with Pet.

Pet Website:

Petrel was invited three years ago to apply for a licence. Having reviewed the terms and the potential we applied for Block 15 in the shallow waters offshore Port Sudan. This block was surveyed and drilled in the 1970s by one of the majors but the discoveries were not large enough. We negotiated a joint venture with Sudapet the Sudanese State Oil Company and submitted a proposal. Negotiations have taken a great deal of time but we believe that a decision is imminent.

We also know the decision is imminent: December 12 Sudan's oil minister said block 15 was expected to be awarded by the start of January 2005. Elric Lloyd-Langton, Lemmings, December 19 2004

More from Pet website:

While the focus of our efforts is Iraq our application to obtain a concession in Sudan is on the cabinet table in Khartoum. In recent years Sudan has had a terrible press due to an ongoing civil war in the South. What has been largely ignored is the emergence of Sudan as a significant oil producer with production at 450,000 barrels a day and rising. The potential has attracted many of the world's most powerful oil companies, but none of the Seven Sisters.

IRAQ SEEKS BIDDERS FOR KORMOR GAS FIELD.

jan 06 2005

iraq's state co,for oil projects (scop) has invited companies to submit bids by mar 1 for the development of the kormor gas field in northern iraq.
The tender announcement ,published by scop late last month ,called on intrested bidders to purchase the tender document by jan 31 against the payment of a $5,000 fee.
The work at kormor,located 50 miles east of kirkuk, includes the construction of processing facilities,including dehydration and condensate separation at tha kormor plant and new sweetening facilities near the north gas plant in kirkuk.
The target production rate,as stated by scop, is 220 million cubic feet per day.
Scop said bidders should submit offers based on carrying out complete basic and detailed design works;as well as the supply of equipment and material,with an option of implementing construction work separately.
Kormor, which was previously called the anfal gas field, is the third largest non-associated gas field in iraq with an estimated 1.7 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves,after mansuria (3.2 tcf)and chemchemal (2.2 tcf). Iraq's total non-associated gas reserves are put at 15.6 tcf, or 14% of its total proven gas reserves, and are concentrated in five fields in northern iraq.Iraq,s north oil co ,started production at kormor in 1990 to supply petrochemical industries and the jambur power station near kirkuk.
Iraq's oil ministry envisaged developing the kormor gas fields further in the mid 1990s for the purpose of supplying turkey with natural gas by pipeline, accordindg to an old plan that never saw the light of day.
The development of the kormor gas field figures among priority development projects for 2005, for which the oil ministry has a total budget of $3 billion.
The 2005 budget will essentially be spent developing certain oil and gas fields and rehabilitating others, as well as on drilling and working over wells. A large chunk will also be allocated to several projects in the refining sector, including debottlenecking,expansions and unit additions at existing refineries. Some funds will go toward the expansions of storage and domestic pipeline capacity.
The iraqi oil ministry intends to tender all these projects as engineering,procurement and construction (epc) contracts,where the ministry finances the work and no foriegn investment is involved.

.

I think the above put into context JT claim of 66 more projects to tender for and DH's one of 6 projects, all in addition to the 2 contracts which are imminent!

Sudan's oil minister stated on Sunday December 12th in the Sudan Tribune

"We are going on with exploration in new blocks, like block 9, 8 and C ... and we just signed an agreement on block 11," he said, adding that an award for block 15 was expected by the start of January.

Also, this is from an interview with Sudan's oil minister(in the same paper);

Sudanese Energy Minister Awad Ahmad al-Jaz has said the country hopes to raise its oil production to 500,000 barrels per day in 2005. Al-Jaz disclosed this in an interview with Muhammad Abu-Hasbu of Al-Hayat.

[Abu-Hasbu] What is the quantity of reserves or discovered stocks?

[Al-Jaz] It is early to answer this question because you cannot determine the stocks in a particular field until all the explorations have been completed. Our current production in Sudan is a small part of the first licensed field. The surveys and explorations are continuing and it is therefore difficult for us to determine the overall oil reserves in the country. But according to the preliminary indications, Sudan is likely to be one of the countries with large oil and gas reserves. The type of Sudanese oil is regarded as of high quality because it does not have other elements, such as sulphur. This is a gift from God and not our work. Because of its high quality, we usually sell our oil at a higher price than that of the British Brent crude, which is known as the benchmark.

[Abu-Hasbu] What is the reason for your belief that Sudan is likely to have abundant oil?

[Al-Jaz] The reason is the high rate of success in the drilling operations. What usually happens is that you make the preliminary geological surveys so as to determine the sites where you wish to explore. You then start to dig wells to determine the size of the oil lake underground. The rate of success is determined by the number of wells from which oil gushes compared to the overall number of wells that are dug. In Sudan's recent diggings in all the concession areas I have referred to, this rate is between "80 and 85 per cent", which is a high rate. The oil companies operating with us even consider it a very high rate compared to what happens in the oil industry in general. All these are scientific indications that Sudan has very large oil reserves.

[Abu-Hasbu] In which areas are you expecting major discoveries other than the present production areas?

[Al-Jaz] From the oil signs in the areas that have not been licensed yet, there are three fields in the Red Sea area in the east of the country, where the French Total and US Chevron Companies operated before they left the country.

It is difficult to say which of the areas will be most productive because the oil reserves of any field can be determined only after completion of the exploration and digging operations in that field. But the preliminary diggings in "Square 8" around the city of Sannar and the White Nile where the Malaysian Petronas Company is operating indicate that there are major oil discoveries.

Following on guys!


Sudan Peace to Spur Oil Growth, But West Still Wary

Edmund Blair

Reuters, Arab News

CAIRO, 7 January 2005 — An imminent peace deal to end war in southern Sudan will encourage expansion in an oil industry that has managed surprising growth despite two decades of war.

Although Western majors are likely to remain cautious on Sudan, the peace deal is likely to facilitate the operations of the Asian firms that have led developments in recent years.

The peace deal, to be signed on Sunday in Kenya, will end a war that erupted in 1983 in the south. After intense bargaining between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), southerners secured half the oil revenues. The deal will not cover the separate conflict that flared up in western Darfur last year and which has made some 1.6 million people homeless.

Sudan’s oil production, currently around 320,000 barrels per day (bpd), comes mainly from fields in the south, with Chinese, Malaysian and Indian firms the big investors. “Sudan is attractive. There is large exploration upside. It is the kind of place majors would be interested in, but the risks will remain quite high until Sudan is able to resolve its internal problems,” said Teju Akande, analyst at Edinburgh-based energy consultants Wood Mackenzie.

“The country has been getting investment, not from the Western world, but it has been getting investment from the East.”

Analysts say state firms working to secure supply for Asia’s energy-hungry economies face less shareholder pressure over issues such as human rights than Western firms, many of whom have quit or reduced their presence in recent years. With one new field ramping up production this year and another, giant, development set for first oil, and total output expected to reach 500,000 bpd in 2005, the country’s petroleum industry has flourished under Asian influence. Estimates of reserves range from more than 560 million barrels to over one billion, but analysts say swathes of the country are unexplored so actual reserves could be much higher. That investment has encouraged an optimistic outlook from Sudan’s government.

In December, Oil Minister Awad Ahmed Al-Jaz said Sudan had signed a new prospecting agreement with an unnamed firm for one of its exploration blocks, and that at least one further deal on untapped acreage was expected in 2005.

As well as pushing its oil production, Sudan has struck a deal with China to refurbish and expand its Khartoum refinery. The government is also negotiating with Indian, Malaysian and European oil firms to build a new 100,000 barrel per day refinery in Port Sudan that would expand export opportunities. Asian dominance of prime sites has reduced openings for Western firms, if they do seek to build up their presence.

For the time being, they are likely to sit and wait for a resolution to the conflict in Darfur, analysts say.

The main areas of fighting in Darfur are hundreds of km (miles) from Sudan’s key Muglad Basin production area.

Consequently the threat to the oil industry from the Darfur conflict comes more in the form of international pressure over the government’s behavior in the crisis, including threats of sanctions, although a rebel group did attack a small South Darfur oil pumping station in December.

“Even if the conflict in Darfur is not related to the oil issue, the fact that the country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis due to conflict cannot be overlooked by anyone,” said Christine Batruch, vice president of corporate responsibility at Sweden’s Lundin Petroleum AB. She said Lundin, which has reduced its activities in Sudan but retains an interest in one block, would plan its activities for 2005 after the signing of the north-south deal. But she added: “Most of the prospective acreage has been taken by non-Western companies and as such there are limited opportunities.”

Total said in December it had reached a deal with the government to update terms on a block it operated until security issues forced it to suspend activities in 1985, but added that operations could only resume once peace was restored. “The conflict in Darfur could potentially impact security in the south, in which case we would have to assess the situation,” a spokesman said from Paris. Talk of imposing sanctions on Sudan over the Darfur conflict has added to uncertainty. But analysts said China, with its interests in Sudanese oil output and its veto power at the United Nations, would likely oppose any UN sanctions move.












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