ANYONE KNOW WHY THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND IS SHOWING A SHARE PRICE AROUND THE 6.59 MARK WHEN IT WAS 18.00 OR SO THE OTHER WEEK OR AM I GOING STRANGE?????????????

gordon the gorilla has a minus iq unfortunately

Brokers don't seem to know which way to turn, the only Broker that has been consistantly correct with it's Bank forecasts is Sandy Chen at Panmure Gordon. He gave a very downbeat assessment of the banking sector in August 2007 and was pretty much spot on.

The last update for RBS was on 23rd April, which was a sell and price target of 195p, again he has been proved correct. When Sandy Chen changes his stance, then I will take notice and increase my exposure further.

Now that the sp is close to his target it will be interesting to see if we have another update.

Yes Sandy Chen is a regular guy/girl 190p today and falling.

how much further does anyone think they could go before they are in serious trouble ?

As I have already said, RBS won't go bankrupt because if they do it will be the end of Capitalism ie all banks go bust, all builders go bust therefore estate agents (already happening), all support companies such as recruiters etc etc.

After saying that, if things get worse will they need to raise even more capital?

I've got loads of RBS (inherited) and therefore have loads of rights!
When the sp goes back over 200p, I'll probably sell the rights and then wait.

I'd then prepared to miss the first 10% of recovery just to make sure when I do buy back in, the sp will be travelling in the right direction.

Shorting distorts the markets.

If you agree, cut and paste this to your favorite threads and don't forget to sign.
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/shortsellsecy/

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to MAKE IT ILLEGAL TO SHORT SELL STOCK EXCHANGE SECURITIES

When prices go down and all is doom and gloom, it is very easy to look for scapegoats. To have the facility to short is a very useful tool, as is a facility to go long. The only reason that bank shares are falling is the poor past action by management. If you need to direct your anger at someone, then the management of these banks would be a good place to start, it is disgusting how they are paid a golden handshake of millions, when shareholders are left carrying the can.

I am a holder of lloy and rbs, and haven't shorted either.

shorting makes it worse though

in that case, everyone in uk should be shorting most shares as vast majority are going down

hopefully uk will collapse as thats what most people want in uk as they kept on voting labour....people want to live in abject poverty

It may make the price worse short term, but there will be a point at which these people will reverse there short, and then prices could increase very sharply.

As for the people who voted for this Labour Government, maybe they could be forgiven for one term, but as we should have all knowed from the 70s Labour will always revert to Tax and Spend, and surprise surprise now we have a financial crisis and recession, we have a huge budget deficit at the worst possible time.

Now I know that this Government wasn't responsible for this recession, like the conservative government wasn't responsible in the early 90s, but at least we had reserves to re-inflate the economy then.

I haven't heard much comment from people who keep voting them in again and again, our economy has been so damaged by this government, as you can tell you shouldn't have got me started on this scotinvester, now I have had my rant I will go and have a stiff drink.

I will cut and paste this to Gordon Brown thread, rather than clutter this one up with this subject.

Whats with the we love Sandy chen?

He is the same as Paul Kavanagh in the dot com bubble.

Panmure Gordon were saying buy RBS at 600p pre crash and now say sell at 200p. Great advice to follow. Maybe if you did the opposite you will be better off.

Have a look at article from the Share mag on 16th August 2007, and you will see he wasn't far off the mark. See below............

UK banks have been slow to confess how exposed they are to the current bad debt crisis but an apocalyptic note from stockbroker Panmure Gordon suggests they could have around 80 billion of loans at risk.

Banking analyst Sandy Chen says these debts are wrapped up with many others in exotic packages ranging from Credit Derivative Products (CDPs) to Asset Backed Commercial Paper Obligations (ABCPOs)

Too much cheap money has resulted in over-lending to high-risk borrowers. Worst of all, the banks dont know what is in the various packages and the extent of their liabilities. The Bank of England last month instructed the clearing banks to clean up their act. They were given the quarter day as a deadline (September 31) to identify and write-down bad debts. Some of these loans will have to be taken on board by the banks.

Chen says the European bank with the largest exposure is Dutch giant ABN Amro with 27 billion. So buying the bank for around

40 billion could prove a poisoned chalice for bidders Barclays (BARC) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

Barclays is already up to its ears in dodgy debt, says Chen. He estimates it could be owed 25 billion substantially more than its capital reserves of 19 billion which would make it the most exposed UK bank.

RBS is relatively safe with only 6 billion at risk, representing a sixth of its capital. Lloyds TSB (LLOY) has 11 billion poor quality loans only a fraction under its 11.5 billion capital. HBOS (HBOS) has

20 billion and 22 billion capital, while giant HSBC (HSBA) is not too exposed at 15 billion against 55 billion capital, according to Chen.

The good news is that probably just a fifth of these low-quality loans will never be repaid, totalling some 15 billion and spread over several years. But banks will need to raise extra capital from rights issues and/or selling stakes to better capitalised competitors in the Far East.

Chen has had to field some irate phone calls from the banks after his estimations. The problem is there is no disclosure. There is a lack of clarity about their ABCPOs and likely asset impairment charges. The over-arching risk is the drying up of liquidity. The banks will probably have to use their cash to top up their own products, which means less to lend to companies, he said.

Shares says: A fully blown financial crisis is still unlikely but the banks will come under more pressure.

good artcile.......typical of shares mag to give wrong prediction in last line though.....it is a financial crisis in uk and in government and with people debts and negative equity

Speculative Buy.

spectacular buy now! in 3 to 5 years plus dividends this will be great to have

this bank is a joke..worth 50p on fundamentals

god maestro shorting it...must be time to buy

scottish twats have fucked up the economy...brown and his scottish rites should fuck off back to haggis land

i agree that Brown has made an arse of some things however he can hardly be blamed for the credit crunch or the global cost of oil...

and who prey tell is "the scottish twat that has fucked up" the rest of the global economy ie the US? or is that all gordon brown's fault too....still dont see what Brown's link to RBS is apart from them being Scottish and if this is your reason for shorting then you are even more mental than we all thought (and that takes some doing )

another great and well informed post from you.....away and lie yourself down for a while so they can give you the medication

If mitzy says speculative buy then it must be very nearly time to do that if so inclined.

hilarious comments treblewide.

yes, brown took credit as iron chancellor but he was a buffoon.....as u say treblewide we have global things like food and oil rocketing.....but he did screw the economy and using and abusing our money....selling of gold, screwing our pensions.

maestro.....your comments are wild and dare i say it...racist.

also, if u think rbs is crap.....then rest of british banks r doomed.....in fact most of WORLD BANKS r doomed in that case.....just look at usa, its in total financial crisis.....and who runs that.....bush.......have u heard of him maestro.........he's he guy that got tony the terrorist to join him in his game in a wee country called iraq.