Shares mag. recommending this stock this week. Is this going to be our killer this christmas!!!! any comments anyone?????

I hope so Ludlow Castle as the SP performance since the announcement has been truly disappointing.

queen1, consider the following:

1) M6G just passed pivotal PIII European trial. Should be on the market in 2008.
2) IND to go directly into USA PIII M6G expected to be filed in next few weeks.
3) Deal for M6G anticipated or take-over of CEN possible.
4) CNS 5161 already in PII and a potential blockbuster.
5) CNS 7056 and COMT inhibitor to enter PI's during 2007. Potential blockbusters.
6) Objective Capital valued CEN at 27p, even before the good M6G PIII results.

A disappointing fall today on relatively small volumes. Still very early days for M6G so I think there is a way to go yet before we see any sp movement.

johnny, the small sellers this week have just been shaken out by the fall in the share price caused by the recent big seller.

Furthermore, M6G has just passed European PIII and is not therefore in "early days" as you say.

4 market makers now blue. The share price could bounce high and fast once the big seller ends imo.

Ludlow, I meant 'early days' in as much as there is yet to be any cash generated. I have been accumulating for twelve months & would hate to see cen swallowed by a t/over just as the products are coming to fruition.

The potential market is huge.

Good luck

The Times (Online)
21st February 2007
Robin Pagnamenta

Synthetic Morphine Trials Give Booster to CeNeS

Shares in CeNeS Pharmaceuticals rose sharply yesterday after the Cambridge biopharmaceutical company announced encouraging final-stage trial results for its synthetic morphine drug, M6G.

Preliminary results of a European trial of 500 patients using the drug for postoperative pain showed it worked as effectively as morphine but with less severe side-effects.

The opiate morphine is one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for relief from postoperative and cancer pain as well as pain associated with trauma but it frequently causes vomiting, respiratory problems and constipation as well as being highly addictive.

The study showed that patients receiving the synthetic version of the drug experienced a 28 per cent reduction in the severity of postoperative nausea and vomiting in the six to 24 hours after treatment.

The global market for a less harmful synthetic version of morphine could be worth as much as $500 million (255 million).

Its a decent late-stage trial result, said Navid Malik, pharmaceuticals analyst at Collins Stewart.
Neil Clark, CeNeS chief executive, said: With the completion of this large European study CeNeS is confident that it has a substantial data package that differentiates M6G from morphine, which will be attractive to a larger pharma partner to licence. The company, which is planning to seek approval from US regulators for the drug in the next few weeks, is currently seeking a licensing partner to market the drug in Europe.

CeNeS was founded in 1997 and is listed on the Alternative Investment Market.The shares rose nearly 3 per cent to 8.625p.

As well as its synthetic morphine drug, the company is developing additional pharmaceuticals for Parkinsons disease and schizophrenia.

Ludlow Castle, my comment was on the market reaction rather than CEN Thanks for the pointers though.

Look at the latest news --- Goldmans sold all their stock on Tuesday -- 7.8% of the co!!--- they were selling before announcement, and took advantage of the good news which bought in volume to rid themselves of a meaningless position for them --- this is a big positive for this stock --- stop losses remain ridiculous in this sort of stock while institutions do not care what price they get once they have decided to rid themselves of it.

See my comment higher up that this is what we could have expected

Confident, yes, good to see the RNS this afternoon confirming that as of 4.30 pm two days ago, our big seller (Goldman Sachs) that was forcing the market makers down, no longer had a notifiable interest in CEN, i.e. their shareholding fell to below 3%. Presumably their holding is now just somewhere between 3% and zero, and they will either have cleared any remaining stock in the last two days, or be on the verge of clearing. Following this and with the recent announcement of successful European PIII M6G results, the share price should climb to its rightful fair value of four or five times the current level.

good that's goldman out the way

Tempting to add again, Goldman might just have provided another buying opportunity on CEN by selling thier large stake. We have EU phase III results now that confirm performnace, next stage is USA. Surely a licencing partner will follow soon to progress this, not to mention the other products in the pipeline. sp is too low IMO.

Agreed Andy and topped up today as a result although its reported as a sell. Imo there's value in this one, that seems to have excaped the market. We can all debate pricing theories, but improved performance must carry weight in the eyes of the ultimate purchasing decision makers.

Eventually this value must out - just a matter of time I would suggest.

andysmith
andy you never got back in on ASM then, CEN should at least be heading in asm's direction having a drug in phase III and also the pipe line as you say.

Driver, didn't get back into ASM, much to my annoyance.
Got bored with sp moving between 18p-23p so took my dosh out which seemed good when they nose-dived to 12.5p last year after Roche pulled out but the strong pipeline of products and continued excellent results has pulled sp higher. Same could be true for CEN although I see that brokers have gone neutral from strong buy? Maybe results of phase III not as convincing as they'd hoped but surely a pharma would be interested in a product as efficient as morphine but without side affects? I'd like to know why the downgrade.

.

Broker Cannacord Adams down-graded as in their opinion the M6G results may not have been significant enough statistically to gain a licensing deal and the trial may have to be repeated. This makes current situation speculative only in terms of timescale, if CEN do have to repeat the phase III trial I guess more money need to be raised, I guess it depends on what view potential licensing partners have?
Next week will be a good gauge of market reaction dependant upon whether Goldman have got rid of all of the stock that they want to, they have <3% but that could be nothing at all or 13m ish.

Andy - There are 3 key results of which one (POINT 3 BELOW) is regarded as potentially not statistically significant;

1. Patients receiving M6G experienced a 28% reduction in the severity of post-operative nausea and vomiting (PONV) in the key 6 - 24hours after treatment (statistically significant, p=0.018).

2.In addition, the incidence of dry retching/vomiting in the M6G arm compared to
the morphine arm in the 24 hour period after treatment was reduced by 32%
(statistically significant, p= 0.044).

3. The incidence and severity of post-operative nausea in the M6G arm was 27% less than that observed in the morphine arm in the period 6 - 24 hours after treatment. This was the second primary endpoint and approached statistical significance (p=0.052).


You will of course note that we are talking about 1% variance here, and that at the end of the day its on the right side (ie 27% better) - even if this result tests again and is netral (ie No improvement/deterioation) then the trial would have succeeded on 2 out of 3 counts, and have no detrimental effect on the 3rd measure.

Surely that is sucess ?

Flackwell, I agree. The Times (21/2/2006) reported the following:

Its a decent late-stage trial result, said Navid Malik, pharmaceuticals analyst at Collins Stewart.

Agreed folks, just establishing why the fall and a downgrade could be the reason however as my mate Driver points out, ASM dived to 12p last year after Roche pulled out of working with them but the quality of the pipeline has seen a rise to 50pish. CEN has the good results, will pusue the US and has other products on test, hence ny comment speculative only in terms of timescale, this will come good and CEN is undervalued IMO.

Investors Chronicle
23rd February 2007 (page 14)

Relief for CeNeS Investors

CeNeS shares rose by 3% to 8.62p after the company announced encouraging data from late-stage trials of morphine replacement M6G. In post-operative patients, the product provided the same quality of pain relief as morphine, but with reduced nausea. However, the shares dipped after Karl Keegan, analyst at Canaccord Adams, downgraded them from buy to hold. He says the nausea reduction was not statistically significant and that CeNeS could have to do another trial.

Tip Update

The shares are below our buy tip (10p, 20th May 2005). But, with the potential for a licensing deal, they remain a speculative buy.

..........................

Personally, I now consider OXB to be the best punt on prospects of a deal.