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Well done Tiger!

I'm totally knackered out after watching this! Great play by both of them.

Good days work on the Betfair coalface too!

night bakko and all

Was a cracker and some good price movement. I had to retire to bed as the kids are ill and giving us grief so needed to be available for back up. Just ended up watching it from bed but did have my PDA to hand!

We should all be playing better golf after last night.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4417997.stm

Had a quick nose at prior research I did on backing before a match is off. My data collection is about two months behind at the moment and I am planning on catching up in the summer. However when I reviewed this last the following was the situation.

Biggest cause of loss is the 0-0 draw. This is a pretty consistant theme actually as the 0-0 draw occurs with remarkable regularity regardless of how strong the home team is. This accounted for half the failures where the home team did not score first. However where the away team scores first the home team still goes on to win 50% of the time.

Covering your position at half time will probably lose you around 40% of the stake but then you will only lose that if the home team go on to win. 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 accounts for nearly 42% of half time scores so you would find yourself in that situation quite often. I guess thats were the skill comes in if you find yourself in that situation.

I'm working on intregrating a whole host of stats into the trading app I have developed. I have it pencilled in for the summer but it will track all the football markets and highlight opportunities for you based on your assumption of what could happen next. You will be able to watch a match live and ask it questions like, If Man U are 1-0 up away to Chelsea with 20 minutes to go what will be the price of the X market and how quickly will the price change to Y and so on. That should answer nearly all question you could possibly have.

I trailied a very rough and ready version on the England vs Azer match. It said the total goals market for 7 or more should have been priced around 80-1 instead of the 5-1 the market offered which is why I thought it was a lay.

Scrip

i find the comment re: 0-0 draws the most interesting - i have recently been looking at whether a hedge on a 0-0 scoreline when backing the favourite is worthwhile.

Fundy, it was certainly worthwhile for me with Chelsea and ManU last weekend. Probably only worthwhile if you've a small account with a stop/loss. Scrip, would your stats available to buy etc.?

D

having a shocker on the horses this pm - hope others are doing better

Script - "However where the away team scores first the home team still goes on to win 50% of the time." An amazing (to me anyway) stat this. It seems to imply several relatively simple bet strategies e.g. back all 0-1 at better than 2's. Is there a catch?

Just started Steve, nice mover Josear in the 4pm at Stl.

Was doing ok untill Countrtwide Belle and Dun Rose won!!

"having a shocker on the horses this pm - hope others are doing better"

Opportunities seem a little Spartan today.

Kernow, "Is there a catch?"

Yes, Not all opportunities are created equal. In terms of scoring power or time in the match. I am afraid for gamblers its the flaw of averages.

"Opportunities seem a little Spartan today."

In general the races are not presenting the right sort of conditions today.

Script - mmm.. so that's why I'm still working :-)

I came across this over the weekend so thought it might be of interest to those who'll be on the Champions League games tomorrow and Weds.

Based on results of 2 legged ties since the European Cup began in 1955-56, the following shows the percentage of clubs who have progressed into the next round after finishing the 1st leg at home by the scores stated:

0-0 Chance of home team progressing 36%
1-0 ............................... 49%
1-1 ............................... 27%
2-1 ............................... 47% (Liverpool)
2-0 ............................... 83.5%
3-1 ............................... 73%
4-2 ............................... 50% (Chelsea)

From the above its quite interesting to see that the chances of Liverpool and Chelsea progressing are very similar. Note also that a 1-0 home win give an equally similar percentage.

Interesting bakko.

That would indicate that laying Chelsea to qualify at 1.23 would be a good bet?

Kajman

according to the stats yes however if you worked on the stats of how many games chelsea have lost by two goals (or even conceded two goals) this season then i feel you would get a very different perspective.

the joy of stats - you can usually find some to support your decision

It is possible to mathematically work out the odds for qualification and I guess the market will be pretty efficient at doing that. Too late for tonight but I can have a look at the markets for tomorrow.

Definately an offside goal there for Munich.