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Script - "However where the away team scores first the home team still goes on to win 50% of the time." An amazing (to me anyway) stat this. It seems to imply several relatively simple bet strategies e.g. back all 0-1 at better than 2's. Is there a catch?

Just started Steve, nice mover Josear in the 4pm at Stl.

Was doing ok untill Countrtwide Belle and Dun Rose won!!

"having a shocker on the horses this pm - hope others are doing better"

Opportunities seem a little Spartan today.

Kernow, "Is there a catch?"

Yes, Not all opportunities are created equal. In terms of scoring power or time in the match. I am afraid for gamblers its the flaw of averages.

"Opportunities seem a little Spartan today."

In general the races are not presenting the right sort of conditions today.

Script - mmm.. so that's why I'm still working :-)

I came across this over the weekend so thought it might be of interest to those who'll be on the Champions League games tomorrow and Weds.

Based on results of 2 legged ties since the European Cup began in 1955-56, the following shows the percentage of clubs who have progressed into the next round after finishing the 1st leg at home by the scores stated:

0-0 Chance of home team progressing 36%
1-0 ............................... 49%
1-1 ............................... 27%
2-1 ............................... 47% (Liverpool)
2-0 ............................... 83.5%
3-1 ............................... 73%
4-2 ............................... 50% (Chelsea)

From the above its quite interesting to see that the chances of Liverpool and Chelsea progressing are very similar. Note also that a 1-0 home win give an equally similar percentage.

Interesting bakko.

That would indicate that laying Chelsea to qualify at 1.23 would be a good bet?

Kajman

according to the stats yes however if you worked on the stats of how many games chelsea have lost by two goals (or even conceded two goals) this season then i feel you would get a very different perspective.

the joy of stats - you can usually find some to support your decision

It is possible to mathematically work out the odds for qualification and I guess the market will be pretty efficient at doing that. Too late for tonight but I can have a look at the markets for tomorrow.

Definately an offside goal there for Munich.

Brilliant Chelsea goal. That's finished it! Well done Chelsea.

Scrip

Can you recommend an accurate chart package/software that will give 'real time' quotes in line with Betfairs Intraday FTSE.

I use my track because I can suck the data into a spreadsheet but I would have thought you could use Money AM as they have intra day streaming charts.

whyallsteve, the MoneyAM streaming chart gets the FTSE tick only 1 sec or so behind and you can draw lines to show bet up/down. You do need to pay for it though.

Kayak
Very happy to pay as long as it is accurate - overall should take some of the hesitation out of betting. Thanks Scrip - took a nice profit on Prins Willem :)

Have to confess to having a very large bet on Prins Willem in running once Tomina fell - happy happy days

What a beauty of a drifter Valixir has been

whyallsteve, don't forget to look at the future, or pseudo-futures like spreadbetter indices, so that you know where the FTSE is going in advance of everyone on Betfair :-)