This is Lemming Investors recent take on yesterdays announcement
Elric Lloyd-Langton
January 11 2005
Petrel Resources announce yesterday that they had signed a memorandum of understanding with the Jordanian government first announced last month. The memorandum relates to the 8,750sqkm East Safawi block, situated in the Jordanian pan handle region close to the Arabian Desert borders with Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The East Safawi Block opportunity emerged from the work Petrel had been doing with the Jordanian authorities in the Arabian Desert. Generally the best plays are on the Iraqi and Saudi side of the border, but there are also some interesting plays across the political frontier on the Jordanian and Syrian side. So far the most comprehensive access and cooperation came from the Jordanian NRA.
Petrel have been given a unique opportunity to study the pan-handle bordering Iraq. The Jordanian NRA offered Petrel an exclusive MoU to study the choice east Safawi block for 6 months, after which studying data and options Petrel then have the option enter into a exploration and production agreement, assuming they find encouraging data and identify drill targets. It is arbitrary to value exploration work until we know more after reprocessing the seismic.
Petrel feels that Jordan as a nation is under explored, and reinterpretation of existing seismic data will continue in tandem with analysis of existing data from the Iraqi Western Desert, which is currently inaccessible due to the negative security situation. Ground work will resume there when possible. In contrast, Jordan is a place in which the company feels safe doing business, and a place where it can be done on good fiscal terms.
Oil & gas plays in the East Safawi block will be based on what the company has learned from Iraq, and the near term focus will be on constructing a region wide model of the Western Desert. This will achieved through analysis of satellite imagery and reprocessing followed by reinterpreting of seismic data.
There has been some confusion surrounding the Jordanian venture, hopefully these will be dealt with in the following bullet points.
1. Will Petrel be allowed to convert any discovery in to productions?
Petrel has the right, but not the obligation to convert to a PSA on generous terms.
2. How will the Jordanian work be funded?
Existing and new institutional shareholders have underwritten the expenditure.
3. How is the partnership with the Iraqi/Jordan authorities working?
The Jordanian authorities have already been very cooperative with Petrel their work in Iraqi. They are a pleasure to work with Our interest in East Safawi (Jordan) comes directly out of the work conducted and models developed in the Iraqi western desert. Hopefully 2005 is the year!
Iraq
The current situation is that no contracts have been awarded, at least no official notifications have been issued. The biggest contract (200,000 bopd) is the Subba & Luhais joint field development. This is also the most straightforward, being 45km NE of Basra port. The area is fairly quiet (Shia and sparsely populated). There is considerable potential at depth.
Petrel said they did not know officially but understand that the Turkish group Everasia bid on Khurmala only. OGI is a consortium of Arabs and Cargary groups which had approached them with the view of joining them saying they were only interested in Hamrin.
If low price is critical, I would guess that Everasia and OGI would under-bid western groups because of different approaches and solutions. The end objective is risk-sharing arrangements
The companies bidding on Subba & Luhais are western-style groups which will bid on the basis of actual costs and risks.
The shares are trading in quite a volatile manner, more than usual after last months foolish report by Reuters which stated that Petrel had lost out in it Khurmala and Hamrin fields tenders, saying they had been awarded to a Turkish company and Canadian company respectively, the Canadian company had to suspend its shares from trading due to the incorrect announcement. Although the shares recovered a 8% early morning loss on Monday, they recover to positive territory finishing 14% up, unfortunately nervous traders have pulled the shares down again 7.5% to 47p, just 11p above our initial coverage last March, a far cry from their high of 136p.
http://www.lemminginvestor.com/PetrelJordanIraq110105.html?1105463499812