nice starting point..

3 May: BDEV : Panmure Gordon reiterates: Buy - 161p TP held.

Investec retains it's Buy Tp 180p.

Interim Management Statement.

Highlights

· Strong spring selling season with average weekly net private reservations up 25.3% against the prior year, driven by higher sales rates per site and increased site numbers

· Private average selling price ("ASP") on completions during the period up by c. 5% against the prior year to c. £202,000 reflecting continuing positive changes in mix

· Overall underlying prices continued to be stable, with greater robustness in London and the South East

· Value of private forward sales up 16.1% to £827.9m (2011: £713.2m)

· We expect to agree terms on c. 10,000 plots of higher margin land in the full financial year

· Reducing overall Group indebtedness remains a key objective, with net debt as at 30 June 2012 now expected to be £75m below previous guidance at around £275m (30 June 2011: £322.6m)

Trading Statement.

Highlights

· Group revenues up by c. 14% for the full year to c. £2,320m, with total completions of 12,637 units

· Group operating profit before exceptional items for the full year expected to be up by c. 41% at around £191m

· Operating margin expected to increase to c. 9.5% in the second half and c. 8.2% for the full year, up from 6.6% in the prior full year

· Full year profit before tax and exceptional items expected to increase by c. 158% to c. £110m

· Net debt almost halved against the prior year to c. £170m as at 30 June 2012, significantly lower than previous guidance

· Private forward sales up 34.6% to £378.4m as at 30 June 2012

on a roll at the mo.....how far..... limit sell at 155p......don't know.,.

broken through the 150 barrier, have limit sell at 154 but may have to extend it.,.

sold at 154p, wonder if it was right thing to do.,.

feeling smug today.,.

And why not ..

BB, good show. A bird in the hand...

set the same limit as you (midnight) for TW but didn't quite get there..... still we can go to the pub on the divy.,.

Final Results

Highlights

· Group revenues up by 14.1% for the full year to £2,323.4m, with completions1 of 12,637 units (2011: 11,078)

· Average selling prices1 increased to £180,500 (2011: £178,300) with private average selling prices1 increasing by 1.5% to £201,800 (2011: £198,900)

· Group operating profit before exceptional items for the full year up by 41.6% to £191.1m (2011: £135.0m)2

· Operating margin3 increased to 9.5% in the second half and to 8.2% for the full year, up from 6.6% in the prior full year

· Full year profit before tax and exceptional items increased by 159.3% to £110.7m (2011: £42.7m)

· Net debt at 30 June 2012 almost halved to £167.7m

· Net tangible asset value per share £2.13 (2011: £2.11)4

· In the last nine weeks, average net private reservations per week per active site1 are in line with same period last year at 0.50 (2011: 0.50)

· Private forward sales1 up 15.3% to £609.6m as at 9 September 2012

· There will be no dividend for the year to 30 June 2012 but the Board expects to recommend to shareholders a final dividend in respect of the year to 30 June 2013

1 Excluding joint ventures

2 Profit from operations was £191.1m (2011: £135.0m) before operating exceptional items of £nil (2011: £7.7m)

3 Operating margin is profit from operations before operating exceptional costs divided by Group revenue

4 Net tangible asset value per share calculated as net assets, less intangible assets and goodwill, divided by number of allotted and issued ordinary shares

Broker snap: Barratt's surge has further to go, says Panmure
Wed 12 Sep 2012

BDEV - Barratt Developments

Latest Prices
Name Price %
Barratt Developments 162.30p -4.36%

FTSE 250 11,815 +0.30%
FTSE 350 3,084 -0.12%
FTSE All-Share 3,018 -0.11%
Household Goods & Home Construction 7,482 -0.75%

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Panmure Gordon has reiterated its positive view of house-builder Barratt Developments in spite of the negative market reaction to the firm's preliminary results on Wednesday, saying that there's still plenty of upside to the stock.

Results were broadly in line with the broker's estimate following a detailed pre-close trading update in July. Pre-tax profits of £110.7m, up 159.3% year-on-year, was slightly above Panmure's £110.4m estimate. Meanwhile, net asset value (NAV) per share came in at 213p, compared with the 219p forecast.

Furthermore, the broker noted: "It appears that trading for the 2013 financial year has started soundly and the group should see further improvement in net margins as the percentage of new land increases."

Panmure said that it is fairly comfortable with its forecasts for the current year. It forecasts pre-tax profit to total £162.8m in the year to June 2013. While no dividend was declared for the prior year, the broker expects a payout of 2.5p in the coming year.

Barratt's shares are up over 85% since the start of the year.

"Although Barratt has had a significant increase in its share price since the start of the year, we still see plenty to go for with the stock on a PNAV [price-to-NAV] rating of 0.74x. We therefore maintain our 'buy' recommendation and 190p target price."

By 11:03, shares were down 6.48% at 158

Who'd have thought a year ago that housebuilders would have more than doubled by now? That's what has happened to Barratt Developments , which put on 11% in September alone to end the month on 169.5p.

The big housebuilders bought up land while it was cheap during the recession, and now have nice land banks to build on. And with selling price for new homes starting to creep up, they're looking a lot healthier now. Barratt is on a P/E of nearly 14, which is abut the long-term FTSE average. But that's at a time when the housing market really is only just coming off its depths and mortgages are still hard to come by. What about another five years time? We could well be looking at a healthier market and decent dividends again -- and a significantly higher share price.

Interim Management Statement

Highlights

· Net private reservations per site per week slightly up on the prior year at 0.54 (2012: 0.53)

· Stable underlying selling prices

· Increase in private forward sales of 21.1% to £768.5m (2012: £634.5m)

· We continue to secure land at attractive prices across the country with £226.8m (2012: £111.3m) of new higher margin land, equating to 29 (2012: 23) sites, approved in the period. Half of full year completions expected to come from newer higher margin land

· Reduction in overall indebtedness remains a key objective with target for zero net debt as at 30 June 2015. Net debt guidance for 31 Dec 2012 reduced to c. £400m, primarily reflecting the timing of land payments

29 Nov: HSBC: Overweight and TP up from 170p to 241p.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have today delivered a glowing review of the prospects for the UK’s homebuilders, in turn raising their price targets on all of the companies within their universe.

Thus, they explain that, “through 2012 the UK house builder sector re-rated, moving from 0.69 times 2012 Net Tangible Asset Value (NTAV) to 1.0 times 2013 NTAV. However, as the sector reaches returns that cover its cost of capital in 2013, moving to mid teen levels by 2014/2015, we believe a further rerating is available. A sector creating mid teen return on capital employed (ROCE) on a sustainable basis (the upside being based on self-help measures rather than any housing market pick-up) we believe deserves to trade at a 20% premium to its NTAV (mid-range of its 2000-2005 valuation range).”

Its analysts have raised their price target on Barratt Developments to 278p (from 224p), on Bovis to 667p (from 599p) and on Berkeley Group to 1,941 (from 1,925).

BDEV Barrat Developments.


Gone long on BDEV already hold TW.

Full broker note here from Deutsche.......

European Daily Focus

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

UK HOUSEBUILDERS Outlook 2013 - remaining positive but being selective

Our top picks remain for Barratt, Berkeley and Bovis.
Despite expectations of constrained economic and mortgage activity in 2013, we believe the pull-through of higher
margin new land should sustain upwards momentum in consensus ests. Market share gains and govt support offer
upside to volumes which could supplement this further. Given the strong performance of the UK housebuilders in the
past 12 months the obvious valuation gap in the sector has closed. However with the sector anticipated to achieve
mid teens ROCE by 2014/5 we believe a further re-rating is available. We remain positive on the housebuilders,
although we would look to be selective in our stock selections. Top picks: Barratt, Berkeley and Bovis.
DB ests upgraded by 0-20%, now top end of consensus.
Through 2012 the UK housebuilders saw double digit percentage increases in consensus PBT forecasts. However
with the future years not yet adequately reflecting the increasing contribution of the higher margin new land we have
increased our forecast PBT 2013-15 by a further 0-20%. The largest of these upgrades were at Barratt, Bovis and
Taylor Wimpey, however it is in our most favoured names – Barratt, Berkeley and Bovis where our forecasts are
approx 15-20% ahead of consensus. Our forecasts are currently based on only a 2% increase in selling rates. Any
upside in mortgage lending or greater market share gains would suggest further upgrades could be available.
Moving our price targets, still more to go for
Through 2012 the UK housebuilder sector re-rated, moving from 0.69x 2012 NTAV to 1.0x 2013 NTAV. However as
the sector reaches returns that cover its cost of capital in 2013 moving to mid teen levels by 2014/15 we believe a
further rerating is available. A sector creating mid teen ROCE on a sustainable basis (the upside being based on self
help measures rather than any housing market pick-up) we believe deserves to trade at a 20% premium to its NTAV
(mid range of its 2000-2005 valuation range).
Still 15-30% upside in share prices available without housing market recovery
Given the strong share price performances through the past 12 months, the upside to our price targets in 2013 lack
the massive scale seen in the previous 2 years. However in focusing on those stocks offering the greatest scope for
positive surprise in forecasts and where valuation re-rating remains possible we believe at least 15-30% share price
performance could be available (based on a stable economic and mortgage outlook). Our top picks are Barratt
(significant P&L leverage to new land, faster than expected debt paydown, strong turnaround in ROCE, 10% discount
to NTAV), Bovis (strong growth story with volumes, price and margins all offering scope for upside, a fast turnaround
in ROCE, 10% discount to NTAV) and Berkeley Group (strong pick up in the selling prices and margins from its new
London developments with potential for larger cash returns in the medium term). Barratt would be our preference in a
scenario of higher volumes.
Risks
Risks to the sector include the availability and affordability of mortgages, interest rate, unemployment rate and
consumer confidence, government funding and policy on planning, the timing and profitability of new land, changes
in raw material and labour pricing.

BDEV

Brokers with a positive Buy Rating
on BDEV.........

Looks way too cheap too me trading
on a forward P/E of 12.7 to 2014
and historical P/E of 21.4... 2012.

Looks like scope for a major re- rating.

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

08 Jan 13 Barratt... Deutsche Bank Buy 216.15 224.00 278.00 Retains
17 Dec 12 Barratt... Credit Suisse Neutral 216.15 185.00 223.00 Retains
29 Nov 12 Barratt... HSBC Overweight 216.15 170.00 241.00 Retains

N@P Building Society

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £204.90m £243.89m £290.00m
EBIT £203.30m £245.00m £249.40m
Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.72% 1.52%
Dividend Cover x 7.65x 5.17x
PER 21.41x 18.12x 12.71x
PEG 0.13f 1.00f 0.30f
Net Asset Value PS 213.32p 324.40p 302.20p

Hemscott Premium.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9799378/Personal-View-Housebuilders-lead-the-way-out-of-our-economic-slump.html