Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Ok, so i better post the other scenario to cover my own ass!

Back to original thinking as a 3-3-5 ABC, of which we are in (minor 'c') of 'B';

Ok so after this mornings PA, we have confirmation it wasn't as i first stated (a 5w 'A' of a zigzag). A couple of possibilities;



Slim chance of it becoming an irregular with a fresh high, but unlikely looking at minor wave 'c's current action.

Also poss;

Important to always be sceptical of labeling a 4th wave after it has travelled further than 38.2% of prior wave 3. Especially after 50%, it will usually become a 'B' or an 'X'.
Case in point this morning. No trade was placed, but now we have a little more clarity.

I am now looking for a low risk entry short on the EU and EJ. When i say 'low risk', i mean i won't freestyle short. We need a stop placement first, so we wait for a minor 5w down/3back (wave 1&2 of the following 'C'). Stop above the high.

Then i hope to get a flagline off of the point of 1 and minor 'b' of wave 2, once broken we can short with confidence. I will post a chart if it materialises.

Earlier;



Update;

Guess where the 200% projection of 'a' gets us? Double top anyone?

Ok, so wave 3 = 261.8% of wave 1, so more likely;

Really difficult to determine...
The choices;



where wave 'B' has finished. This has wave 3 reaching 200% of wave 1, but a tiny wave 4 which i don't like. Or;



This is preferred. We have just had a def 5w short move, but was it a fresh wave 1 (of the larger 'C')? or was it 'c' of the 4th?

Looking at it on the 1min chart and it looked corrective, but a wave c doing 361.8% of wave a???! Hmmmm enough to scare me out of the trade. Oh the market is so sly;

So earlier, i had my fibs for pullback of subwave iii ('iv') and it reached the 70.7% level. Usually i enter a part position here, but today, i decided to have more discipline and wait for it to hit the 61.8% level. PA looked like a really fast abc which i reckoned would just be the A wave of the corrective wave. It wasn't, it went higher without me.

Later, i am waiting for what i consider is the wave 4 proper. I have my fib levels ready. Wave 3 was extended, so often we only reach the 76.4% level. Further (as above) we have a really shallow A&B wave, so naturally i think it wont drop far. I mistook a small 5w minor for the C, coinciding with the 76.4% level and open part position. It then tanked south as you can see in the chart, i opened another part position at the 70.7% and a final one at the 61.8% level. This time it went deeper. I started to doubt with the speed it was traveling and the possibility of the alternative count where we had possibly finished wave B, that i could be wrong. I close and recognise the loss. Now it heads off up without me.


Knowing what is likely to happen sometimes isn't enough. I have been waiting all afternoon for the wave 4, to get onboard long. When it happened, it was far far deeper than i imagined and a lot swifter. Once again the market uses speed as scare tactics... works a treat. I need to be more mechanical. To lose money going long on the Eu today is mental when you look at the rise. Poor trading and i'm disappointed with myself.

Ending diagonals, flavour of the day?

Yesterday;



Today;

Or simpler;

Above but on the 5min;

and the possible bigger picture;



The reason being is that it looks certain it was a 3w move up, this should be corrected by a 3 wave back down possibly to make it either a flat or irregular. The 261.8% fib (of 'A') would be nice. Building the picture, but looks like we might have our wave 2 in progress. An X wave instead would change things substantially, so caution req'd as the drop might not be so large. Certainly will be looking to get short if i can determine the end of the 5min 'c' above.

Post 237;



So the 'b'wave was deeper than i expected. Apologies, i will try to be more accurate in the future! )

Little bit more thought gone into this and now i see this;

Remember this?



Update;

Earlier;



Think that's your lot for downside for a while;

5-3-5 ABC, with 'C' = 138.2% of 'A';

Also GbpJpy, looking like finishing its WXY corrective move. Incidentally it also came down to within a pip of breaking its prior reflex point;



Could be good for some upside, lets see... I'm long with stop pip below the low.

Ok, gonna have to rely on small timescales, cos i'm now sure we need to correct downwards. The 4hr says to me that we have already had a 5-3-5 (W) move and then an 'X' wave to connect the next set (Y), of which the first move was clearly in 3, so should it not become a flat/irreg?, that would mean a bad week for the Euro ahead;