will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

I have to confess that I had not appreciated that last Thursday was going to be results day and it was not until this evening that I have had a chance to see/analyse the information and digest what has been, to put it mildly, a rather sharp fall in sp.

For me ARX is only a small part of my total portfolio. I prefer to invest in the more well known companies as I only have the time and inclination for a 'hands off' approach to share ownership. Nevertheless I do occasionally dabble in the more speculative end of the market if the products on offer are of particular interest to me (not necessarily the best reason!) and then I tend to hold for some time.

I have held ARX for close on 18 months having bought when the sp was in the mid 20s. I was attracted to them primarily because I saw the potential of the composite material across a number of applications, and more specifically, saw the development of ARX's ULDs as addressing a real problem, that of maintenance and repair, associated with the aluminium boxes.

Do not underestimate what the Company has achieved over the past 18 months...development and trials of a basic ULD; development of further models; some orders (albeit probably at a heavy discount); development of a temp controlled ULD (in collaboration with Kelvin) which again addresses a real problem of transportation by air of temperature sensitive items such as vaccines; start-up of a factory in New Mexico and installation of some automatic production techniques; some manufacture of non ULD items (not fully detailed); work with the Chinese on possible collaborations. All this had to be done whilst demonstrating that their products and manufacturing processes are in compliance with the demands of the FAA/CAA. At the same time as all this was going on a dispute with Watermark had to be resolved with the consequence that a new approach to marketing ULDs needed to be developed. A pretty good job all round in my humble opinion.

Where there has been disappointment is in the failure of the Company to secure large volume ULD orders from the airline industry. I do not believe there is anything wrong with the products as such. They have been shown to be a significant improvement over those they replace and I am confident, as further real operational data come through, that that optimism will be further reinforced.

Although the Company has cited a number of factors for the lack of orders, it is my view that the high cost of fuel and the impact on airlines' management decision making has been paramount. I've seen it all before...management when confronted with what seems like one overwhelming cost issue begin to impose blanket freezes on all other expenditure. This is where ARX is suffering...at this stage in the fuel cost cycle, airline management just don't want to know about ARX and its ULDs (or anything elese non fuel) even if the business case is compelling. The good news, in my opinion, is that airline management will quickly begin to get used to these higher fuel prices and will in time revert to a more 'business as normal' approach and will again look more favourably at what the likes of ARX have on offer. Anyway there will come a point when older style ULDs will become irreparable and will need replacing thus forcing the issue.

One further point I would like to add is that Airlines can be remarkably conservative in their approach to change. When I started out as a young aeronautical engineer nearly half a century ago we could'nt develop new techniques quick enough...if it was new it must be better. No sooner had we thought about it than it seemed to be in service...great days! Today the tendency is for a slow initial build up and once everything is thoroughly tested and a certain penetration threshold is attained then the rest follow very quickly. I think that well could be the case with ARX and its ULDs. Sorry to drone on ...good luck everybody.

Javelin,

Very good post.

Javelin - music to my ears.

In exasperation at the treatmment of ARX's SP over the last couple of days, I have spent this evening re-reading the accounts from last week. Like you, my conclusion is identical to that which I posted last week when I bought more at 14.1p (see post number 219 ). It is a sound company that has achieved its entire immediate objective (and dealt with the court case) within a 12 month period. Its future prospects with basic ULD's, refrigerated units (look at the waste on transported pharmaceuticals - 25% or thereabouts), non-airline applications and a potential chinese JV are terrific. What a platform to look forward from.

Sales must come when airlines have bitten the fuel bullet and upped the ticket prices (air travel in real terms is about the cost of dinner for two at the Ritz(y) these days - we can all afford to pay for the additional fuel bills, if correctly and honestly marketed to us) and can get back to other strategic capital expenditure planning. Anyway freight is driven by India and China's exanding GDP, not passengers.

I'm sitting on a 33% loss since buying in on RHPSG's recommendation a couple of weeks ago, averaging down (dangerous, I know) as the price falls. I have no intention of selling and am happy to wait a year or so for the result. Any sign of a concerted upward momentum in the SP will have me reaching for my debit card again.

Let's hope the directors are able to give us a regular stream of postive news to counteract the recent knee-jerk reaction to one paragraph in the annual report.

Aerobox's technology is as innovative and as widely applicable as SEO's RF sealing technology which I am also heavily into.

If my employers don't find out how much time I spend on these BB's and give me a bonus this year, I shall be buying more at some stage.

Now's the time to buy in for those new to this stock - IMHO DYOR, but trust me! - no, seriously, wait for some good news and a positive upward indicator and then pounce hard.

Javelin, you have my permission to carry on droning on.

SD

I wonder what most of the membership of RHPSG are thinking probably wanting a refund.
I have to say prior to the news I really did not think it was going to be so unpalatable and was hoping there might be a little something that might lift the SP and thats why I held.
I am still holding licking my wounds at the moment.

RHPSG's recommendation was fair enough and nothing has changed - just lack of sales volume reported. We need patience, although I admit it is always deeply dispiriting t see the SP fall so far so soon after purchsase.

If you had watched and waited until now, would you buy at today's price, or have been put off by the recent fall?

SD

not really a street issue..i have held off because i wanted to see order flow come in...and am still waiting. i would rather miss the first 15% rise (or more) to see revenue and acceptance than just wait.

i really like this stock and the quality of this thread is really great and informative.

this will remain on the old watch page and i will pile in on news...

proptrade - already in (too high as usual!) I am sorely tempted by today's prices, but like you will sit and wait for a positive move up before committing more funds.

SD

it is just because orders=acceptance and like SEO, once you have landed the big one u can buy with confidence

Has anyone noticed that the SP now trades at par with the net asset value per share of 12.18p, as per accounts published last Thursday?

This is almost startgin to approach a value share - buy on asset value and hold long-term until something happens to revalue it.

Any takers? Go on - profit in a box for the taking, you know you want to!

SD

and the cash burn issue!

Well, I am assuming that they are attempting to generate orders that will cover the cash burn which I am well aware of. Meanwhile, I estimate that cash on the BS at 31st December is about a year and a third's operating cash with no gross profit - so it's sh*t, bust or fund-raise this year, no doubt about it. If they don't make any sales, this will also severely limit their development in other areas and good bye to acquisitions.

Let's see the trading statement at the half year, if not some news (like a nice fat juicy order to BA and Singapore Airlines) before then.

SD

Declared as oversold by the Daily Mail today, think I will go along with that.

Definitely oversold - agreeing with the DM, whatever next!

Just kicking myself I was away for Friday/Monday when the offer price dipped below 12p when I would have topped up big time. Have followed the price down from 20p to 14p so am well out of the money, but more than happy to sit tight, well over weight, and wait for reality to dawn over the next few months.

The paradigm remains intact and RHPS's Tom Bulford has talked to their finance director who says deals from the 3 US airlines that are not in Chapter 11 are on the way, whilst their CEO is at this very moment (or was last week) in China discussing JV possibilities with the Chinese Airline.

BUY - IMHO DYOR

SD

And a little snippet from thisismoney today

Scrappy selling left Aerobox p off at 12p. It looks oversold. Saudi Arabian Airlines ordered 500 of its AKE air cargo containers in December. Word is that another contract from a major airline is on the conveyor belt.

Looking good - keep the faith!

SD

Copied from the iii bb from lozzak

Tue 09:59 red hot penny shares - update lozzaK

"this is from the weekly email that is sent out by red hot penny shares.

Aerobox (ARX): I had a long chat with
Aerobox finance director Richard Scott
after last week's slightly unnerving
annual results. The disappointment
stemmed from Aerobox's inability to
announce any new contracts, but these
should not be long delayed. Of the six
North American carriers, three are in
bankruptcy, but each of the remaining
three have completed satisfactory trials.

One has requested some design changes,
but could be in a position to place an
order within weeks. An interesting aspect
of this is that the Aerobox can be
X-rayed, and by implanting an RF chip, it
can be tracked. These distinguish the
Aerobox from aluminium containers and
have excited the guys at the
Department of Homeland Security.

Aerobox is also hopeful of landing fresh
orders from the Middle East, where
airlines are certainly not short of cash.
And Aerobox's chief executive is in China,
seeing the four Chinese airlines,
officials from the Chinese Aviation
Authority, as well as potential joint
venture partners.

Refrigerated containers for the food and
pharmaceutical industries are also in
trials, while Aerobox's unique material
could have applications in the military
and auto markets. Overall, the sales
timetable has slipped. Airlines are doing
all they can to make do with old aluminium
boxes, but they cannot stretch their life
indefinitely and there is no reason to
doubt the superiority of the Aerobox, or
that it will become the industry standard.
The fall in the shares is an
over-reaction. BUY "

Not a bad partner for SEO - revolutionary packaging applied to a core essential business worldwide with spin-off potential - fantastic business model.

Owwww!!!! the pain!

Can't they even sell these boxes as kennels?

40% down overall on my overweigth position - I take post 236 back entirely. It's a good example of "these shares can't go any lower, can they?". Yes the can, my son, yes they can.

I know it's been a bleak day for the DOW and the FTSE caught it too, but not my little shares too, please.

Oh, well, 60hrs when I can't do a thing about it (unless I spreadbet the house after hours on the FTSE bounce next week! lol) - just have to get me embouchure back in shape on me new euph.

Back to basket to lick wounds. Anyone any hope to offer?

SD

Stockdog,
I'm bleeding with you and confirm its painful.
Wonder if these panels could be fashioned for freight lorries etc, with a possibilty of a homing tag built in for when they are nicked and of couse the availabilty of seeing whats inside.

Looking at the chart (with hindsight), instead of buying more at 14.1, I should have takne the breach of the 14p mid price support as a sell signal (however tough) on my 20p and 18p holdings. Then, if I still believed in the fundamentals (as I do, so long as they make some sales!) waited and watched for a strongly positive bit of news - like a major sell to a big airline, or a capital-free JV with a Chinese airline.

Just shows that averaging down can be very risky, as it certainly has been here. Had I sold at the 14p support-break (a 13p bid price) I would have been down 37% on 60% of what I hold now, equivalent to only losing 22% of 100% of what I hold now.

Again, looking at the chart and drawing a line from the low in April 2003 to the low in June 2004, its extrapolation to today shows we could go as low as 10p before we hit support again - that would be a 9p bid price - ouch!!! a further 10% loss, representing a 49% overall loss for me, compared to the 22% equivalent loss if I'd sold at the support-break.

However, with a piece of good news reversing the trend the upside potential before we hit the resistance line of the same long-term down channel could be as high as 34p. Well, you have to allow me a little optimism.

Anyone got a better plan for me than to continue to hold and hope?

yours as ever

Stop Loss - er, I mean Stock Dog

I got rid of these at 18p, having bought at 38p
I invested in Stanelco--a wise decision me thinks!!