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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 10:34 - 225 of 1009

Looking good this AM.

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 11:47 - 226 of 1009

Not if you are short!!!







8-)

overgrowth - 08 Jul 2005 11:55 - 227 of 1009

Fred - you're not short on RTD are you ?

Check out the Elliot waves - the end of this wave we've just started on is in the high 40's, which happens to coincide with Tom Bulford, Money Week et al for the end of 2005 price prediction.

The MMs are not holding back the price for the institutions any more, so we should see plenty more upside in the next couple of weeks.

Any significant contract news or large institutional buys in the next couple of months is likely to take RTD past the 40p mark.

I'm with opto - RTD looks strong today and this uptrend now appears to be set to continue for some time.

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:07 - 228 of 1009

I thought we may have pushed through 32p today, strong market, trades mostly buys. Not too late yet :-)

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 12:09 - 229 of 1009

Hi optimistic,same here on 32p,but did you see the 600,000 sell just b4 closing yesterday?

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:13 - 230 of 1009

No capetown missed that, was it a certain sell or a late reported buy?

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 12:14 - 231 of 1009

it was an o trade,sell red at 1623

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:19 - 232 of 1009

That size could have been reported late and possibly an earlier buy, nothing certain though. Anyway whatever it has been absorbed, lets look forward to some more large buys :-)

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:40 - 233 of 1009

Strange a 604,500 trade has just popped up on the 'trades' timed 16.28 'L'

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 12:44 - 234 of 1009

Overgrowth, No I am fat and U and when I stand on a box quite tall. But I do hold about 300K of RTD. That is why my computer is near the toilet!!!!
But is does seem blue all round to-day.

8-)

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 12:48 - 235 of 1009

Thats the one that showed in red as a sale yesterday,overgrowth,its the one i was talking abt

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:54 - 236 of 1009

Don't know why it has been carried forward to today?

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 13:05 - 237 of 1009

but it was red sale yesterday,today its a black?,how does that work,you will have guessed i am newish to this,thx op

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 13:23 - 238 of 1009

The black just shows that the computer connot discern wether it is a buy or a sell.
Don't forget that large trades can be reported late and can look like either a buy or sell at that time based on the present bid/offer. Whereas in fact the trade if done earlier could have been opposite to the buy/sell recorded. Oh it does get complicated :-) hope that helps.

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 14:50 - 239 of 1009

Sellers come on the scene and the price ticks up!

Fundamentalist - 08 Jul 2005 15:29 - 240 of 1009

Fred :-)

Capetown - always bear in mind that sites like this classify whether is a sale or a buy based purely on whether it is closer to the bid or offer at the time it is released. This can at times be very misleading. NEVER rely on the buy/sell ratio as an indicator as it is often misleading - you will often see a trade reported as a sell 10 mins after a tick up that is clearly the buy that caused the tick up in the first place.

SP looks ok currently though volume is quite low. Personally wouldnt expect much movement prior to 1/2 yr results without any further announcements ie new contracts etc

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 19:38 - 241 of 1009

Fundy, when you have finished that bottle of white, why don't you expect much movement prior to results? I have a good hope that these are going to move much sooner and in the right direction. My view is based on TA and optimism, if I didn't have that view I wouldn't have bought into them :-)
Cheers
opto

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 23:59 - 242 of 1009

RTD Play their cards close to their chests. They are in the financial field and wish to keep themselves as clean as possible from false leading of the market. Their main announcements come at interims and finals with little hype.

Fundamentalist - 09 Jul 2005 09:11 - 243 of 1009

Opto

my personal thought is that there is nothing to drive them up prior to results - the trading statement was predictably muted (based on history). Cant see anything to drive the price up (unless new contracts are announced). Ultimately when half year figures are released it will become clearer whether the transaction growth is being effectively translated into greater turnover and profits. If this yrs growth is in line with broker forecasts then to me the share is fairly valued. I would expect the share to pick up later in the yr based on half yr results and then hopefully on a positive trading statement prior to xmas

optomistic - 09 Jul 2005 09:35 - 244 of 1009

Thanks Fundy, I'm still going for an early rise. First step mid 30's.
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