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The credit crisis continues, all indicator are saying the US is heading into recession.........is there really anything to brighten the summer up ?

The USA may well be in recession but that is not the point.

History shows us that the markets hate uncertainty. The lowest point of the market in 03? was the day b4 the Iraqi war. Once the war started the market recovered because it knew where it was then. Likewise with a recession.

If you look at a 10yr FTSE 100 chart, the bull market of 00 was rapid with companies trading on rediculous p/e ratios. Thus the drop after was also rapid and symetrical. The last bull market from 03 was slow and steady and thus much stronger.

Last summer I remember Tom Huggard saying we were well overdue a bear market but didn't know where it was coming from as nobody seemed to predict the credit crunch. If I recollect properly he reckoned the bear market would be quick but painful which is exactly what has happened. I may well be wrong but for what it is worth I think we will correct soon and then the markets will recover (I hope!! lol)

Last bear market was 3 years long..........will this one be the same (eg ending around late 2009 or 2010 ?)

I'm with DD here, think lot of problems already priced in, but still lots of uncertainty out there, however if the rate cuts get things moving again later in the year i expect the market to reflect its position looking ahead...

I do not see it.

AIM and Small caps are still being sold off..........which means money is leaving these markets.

Large caps are yet to fall, and the money will move into these "safer" stocks first.

Only when these large caps are again fully valued, will potentially money go back into AIM and small caps.

That could be a long way away as yet.

Large caps are yet to fall??

Where have you been looking?

Only big miners have kept going and they had a sell off last week.

Just about all other stocks are 30-50% lower - banks/builders/etc etc

Aim stocks have have been smashed. If you look at the popular ones eg Tan;Sln;Cfm;Avm;Vyke;Lng, they do look as though they have stabilised.

Methinks you're tongue is firmly planted in your cheeks ...

I tell you what PP.

If you are so confident that the market will keep falling, tell me what you are short or going short in and we'll check it in 3 months.

If yo're not prepared to say, then I can only assume you are not serious.

I see perhaps a "band aid" being applied to get the US through elections in Nov, but after that the wounds should bleed heavily, so there is a very good chance for a brief relief rally later in the year, but then it will be very heavily sold into Spring 09 IMO.

Ahh so you do think the market is going to rally this year.

The truth comes out lol

2009 and after that, I've no idea. We'll have to discuss it later in the year.

.. and now the Directors buy.

..although to be fair so they did at Wng at around 110p and look where it is now!

Very small director buys, given they sold millions of pounds worth at 131p last year.

true, can't argue with that..

Very pretty PP as is the news this morning

1+ here we come ..... pleeaseee

Minor news really, cannot be anything special otherwise the directors would not have been allowed to buy yesterday.

Still, they are doing their best to pump the price back up, cannot fault them for that. Top of the trend line is 82p, will it test that in April and fall back, or will it not reach it and fall back in a couple of weeks ?

Alot is going to depend on the market.

It does look as though some of the Aim stocks I mentioned yesterday have found the bottom and are making moves northerly.

Its to be expected in April. Tax year end selling hits stocks in March, then in April they go up as people buy "bargains" and then they fall in May when "Sell in May" happens.

So some AIM stocks will do well in April, only to collapse again come May.

Don't totally agree with that.

Aim stocks have been hammered because of the credit crunch 'run to safety' attitude. I don't think in this bizarre market you can gauge against any previous year. Look what's just happened to Mna. Who knows what's going to happen. If you don't buy into the idea that most companies are going bankcrupt then I expect to see stock prices rise with the obvious pullback from time to time.

No sooner had I sold than it starts rocketing...?, I find there are certain stocks that no matter what you do...you just don't have any luck with them...RCG will be one of those for me.

Too true.

I could name many like that :-o