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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Maggot - 08 Dec 2004 18:10 - 2265 of 11056

mg. The overall trend today is down, and there was resistance at 290, so surely a short was reasonable? Not sure what you mean when you say the 5-minute trend had held for ages. Anyway, it's all over the place now...

mg - 08 Dec 2004 18:20 - 2266 of 11056

Maggot - sorry - I'm looking at the netdania.com 5 minute chart which, as you say, was showing a lovely downtrend line from 4:00 am this morning. Every move back up was proving too much to get through the downtrending range line.

Apart, that is, from when we got that recent move - which burst through the upper trend line. It's coming back down a bit now but I have a feeling that it might be attempting to form an upward trending range from the 19200 low. If it breaks back through 19300 then that would have failed - all IMHO, of course.

Maggot - 08 Dec 2004 18:30 - 2267 of 11056

Thanks, mg. I understand - roughly what I had thought. The trend downwards in gold has been so strong I wonder if the dollar is being deliberately bought by countries' banks to stop it dropping any farther. I don't understand these things, but there have been murmerings in the press, and reported speeches, suggesting that Europe, in particular, would like to see the dollar go no lower at the moment. And pundits were so certain it would continue to drop that it seems to me, from experience, that is the time when it reverses.

The market climbs a wall of worry, and when everyone says it will continue to rise, that has always been the signal to think about selling!

hilary - 09 Dec 2004 06:58 - 2268 of 11056

AUD Westpac-ACCI 4th-Qtr Industrial Trends Survey 0:00 19:00
AUD Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations 0:00 19:00
AUD Home Loans (OCT) 0:30 19:30 -1.0% -0.6%
AUD Employment Change (NOV) 0:30 19:30 10k 43.7k
AUD Unemployment Rate (NOV) 0:30 19:30 5.4% 5.3%
AUD Participation Rate (NOV) 0:30 19:30 63.6% 63.7%
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (OCT) 5:00 0:00 2.60% -1.90%
JPY Machine Orders YoY % (OCT) 5:00 0:00 -4.50% 5.00%
DEM Exports SA (MoM) (OCT) 7:00 2:00 0.3% 1.0%
DEM Imports SA (Mom) (OCT) 7:00 2:00 1.2% 1.5%
DEM Current Account (EURO) (OCT) 7:00 2:00 5.0B 5.1B
DEM Trade Balance (OCT) 7:00 2:00 11.0B 12.0B
EUR ECB to release Dec Monthly Report - Trichet Speaks 9:00 4:00
GBP Total New Construction Orders (OCT) 9:30 4:30 2076.0
GBP Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn (OCT) 9:30 4:30 -4750M -4546M
GBP Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn (OCT) 9:30 4:30 -2550M -2377M
DEM Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P) 10:00 6:00 0.30% 0.1%
DEM Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P) 10:00 6:00 1.70% 3.8%
GBP BOE Announces Rate Decision 11:00 7:00 4.75% 4.75%
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (NOV) 12:30 8:30 0.00% 1.5%
USD Export Price Index (MoM) (NOV) 12:30 8:30 0.40% 0.7%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 4) 12:30 8:30 335k 349k
USD Continuing Claims (NOV 27) 12:30 8:30 2723k
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (OCT) 12:30 8:30 0.3% 0.3%
USD Wholesale Inventories (OCT) 15:00 10:00 0.5% 0.5%
USD Wholesale Sales (OCT) 15:00 10:00 0.5% 0.6%
EUR ECB Vice President Papademos Speaks 22:00 17:00
CAD BoC Governor Dodge Speaks 22:00 17:00
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q) 21:45 16:45 2.1%
JPY Domestic CGPI (MoM) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 0.10% -0.10%
JPY Domestic CGPI (YoY) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 1.90% 1.90%
JPY Export Price Index (MoM) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 0.0%
JPY Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 4.0%
JPY Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 -0.8%
JPY Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 23:50 18:50 11.6%

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 07:19 - 2269 of 11056

Long?

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 07:29 - 2270 of 11056

Still looks long... Looking for an entry now..

Bobcolby - 09 Dec 2004 07:32 - 2271 of 11056

My cmc cable chart is showing a straight line since 6am, so dont know what is happening. I think BOE are dead set on 5%+ interest rates so we cud see a hike today, which makes cable long??

mg - 09 Dec 2004 07:34 - 2272 of 11056

Tellon
I reckon there's the little matter of 200 to consider before thinking about a long. It's through short term support @250 the way I read it.

Bobcolby - 09 Dec 2004 07:38 - 2273 of 11056

Sounds like long entry below 200 is order of the day

hilary - 09 Dec 2004 07:39 - 2274 of 11056

Personally I don't think it's a long just yet, although EUR/USD and USD/CHF look like they could be on the turn.

mg - 09 Dec 2004 07:44 - 2275 of 11056

Bob
That was what I was thinking ..... provided this little bounce doesn't develop into a rally ;(

Bobcolby - 09 Dec 2004 07:47 - 2276 of 11056

I am going to read my shares mag and put my feet up for an hour or two. See what transpires.

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 07:50 - 2277 of 11056

Trying a long from 38

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 08:11 - 2278 of 11056

Moved the stop up to 240.. Not to confident yet..

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 08:15 - 2279 of 11056

WooHoo stop at B/E! That was a tough trade its fighting to go down..

mg - 09 Dec 2004 08:16 - 2280 of 11056

Would have been a good 'un - shame - but stops are there for a reason ;)

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 08:20 - 2281 of 11056

You stoped out? B/E?

mg - 09 Dec 2004 08:26 - 2282 of 11056

Tellon
No - sorry I was referring to your trade. I'm short from 271 - earlier ..... watched it go down into the 30s but disn't pull the trigger. Now sweating.

Tellon - 09 Dec 2004 08:26 - 2283 of 11056

Ive put a limit of 1.9390.. Seems like most people are saying sell at this level.. I think im dreaming to get +152pips.. Off to work I go HiHo HiHo.. Later all..

M.. Oh ok..

hilary - 09 Dec 2004 08:37 - 2284 of 11056

It's taken nearly a year, but this thread is finally starting to get the posts that it needs. That's great.
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