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UK Banks (BANK)     

BigTed - 17 Mar 2008 09:47

Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=HSBA&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BARC&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=LLOY&SChart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RBS&Si

spitfire43 - 18 Mar 2008 09:24 - 23 of 331

I fancy HBOS as a short, not only are they exposed to the UK mortgage market, but also have a massive expoure to near sub prime lending (7.0bn). Worth a short on any bounce. imo.

hewittalan6 - 18 Mar 2008 09:29 - 24 of 331

You may be right, spitfire.
From an industry point of view I can confirm to you that the Halifax have taken 3 unusual steps recently which seem aimed at reducing exposure.
1) The best secured deals they offer are now only available to existing mortgage customers, new customers do not seem very welcome
2) Their sub prime arm has banned all lending that is used for consolidation puposes
3) They have reduced their maximum personal loan amount from 25k to 13k

That looks to me like they have decided they do not want to attract any more custom.

mitzy - 18 Mar 2008 11:08 - 25 of 331

Best short in the market due to the UK housing exposure.

spitfire43 - 18 Mar 2008 13:12 - 26 of 331

See chart below,

HBOS have had a hell of a fall in last 3 weeks from 700 to sub 500, I notice that the last lower high or resistance is just below 600. Now if markets bounce and HBOS fails to break 600 and falls, it may be a good entrance for a short.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=HBOS&S

BigTed - 18 Mar 2008 15:53 - 27 of 331

Read somewhere earlier HBOS is the least stable of our banks with a larger chunk of exposure to bad debts than the others... will look to short on any strength as i believe the credit crisis has plenty to run yet...

brianboru - 19 Mar 2008 09:28 - 28 of 331


HBOS in trouble?

BigTed - 19 Mar 2008 09:48 - 29 of 331

Wishing i had courage of my convictions... less than three trading hours ago, i wrote about shorting HBOS...! I have certainly lost my bottle after being burnt heavily in past few weeks...
Incidentally, how long before Citibank goes the same way as Bear...?

BigTed - 19 Mar 2008 09:59 - 30 of 331

According to Fortune, "Bear Stearns is dealing with a classic run-on-the-bank. The firm's short-term creditors refused to lend the firm any more money via the extension of overnight loans, and simultaneously demanded repayment of outstanding debt. The one-two punch overwhelmed Bear's cash position, forcing it to seek help. Had the Fed not stepped in, it appears doubtful Bear could have operated today.... In short, the Fed is allowing J.P. Morgan - a commercial bank - to act as a conduit for pumping cash into Bear Stearns. The bank is being permitted to give Bear Stearns collateral at the Fed's emergency-lending discount window to secure 28-day financing, which in turn is lent back to Bear Stearns in order to finance its business. The Fed's role in the deal suggests federal officials fear a systemic collapse of the U.S. financial system were Bear Stearns to fail. The fear stems from Bear central role in a multitrillion-dollar web of interconnecting derivative contracts."

If Citigroup dos not get an injection of cash soon it is going to blow up just like Bear Stearns. That is why the Fed tried to bailout Bear. It is worried that if one bank collapses investors will wake up and connect the dots and realize that the balance sheets on other Wall Street banks are works of total fiction too and cause panic in the stock market and a run on some of these banks. Banks that made stupid mortgage bets deserve to suffer, but the Fed is owned by the banks and works on their behalf instead of the greater good of the general welfare of our country. The costs of the bailout are born by you at the gas pump and the inflationary pressures created by a falling dollar.

spitfire43 - 19 Mar 2008 10:18 - 31 of 331

Banks tanking today, apart from lloy, hsbc and stan take your pick of which bank to short. Can't see hbos getting anywhere close to 600 level now, so will have to think about a level to short these.

mitzy - 19 Mar 2008 10:24 - 32 of 331

Best short in the market.. read somewhere they are to announce a 5 bill package to support their liquidity problems.

BigTed - 19 Mar 2008 11:08 - 33 of 331

Shares of UK mortgage lender HBOS plummeted more than 18% in early London trade on rumors that the company approached the BoE for emergency funding. HBOS spokesmen denied those rumors but markets remained jumpy and turbulent in the wake of the Bear Stearns disaster, with traders preferring to sell first and ask questions later.

Cable dropped nearly two big figures on the HBOS news while the latest economic data from UK only added insult to injury by showing a slowdown in UK labor markets. UK employment data showed a substantial weakening in labor demand as unemployment rolls were reduced by only -2.8K versus -5.0K expected while wages grew at 3.7% annual rates versus 3.8% forecast. Furthermore, BoE minutes which were expected to produce an 8-1 vote revealed a vote of 7-2 instead suggesting serious concerns about economic growth

Given the recent turmoil in financial markets it now appears that the BoE will be much more likely to ease at the next MPC meeting in April. and if tomorrows UK Retail Sales data shows a more than forecast decline, chances of a 50bp rather than merely a 25bp one will increase markedly. Tonights news clearly creates additional risks for the pound going forward as UK may become the next G-10 member to follow the US into a recession.

halifax - 19 Mar 2008 18:51 - 34 of 331

IG will double its margin requirements on most bank positions next week.

BigTed - 20 Mar 2008 20:26 - 35 of 331

TD Waterhouse just released new margin call requirements, interesting that most have gone from 5% to 10%, however HBOS gone to 20% margin required...

BigTed - 25 Mar 2008 08:39 - 36 of 331

So, question is, a shorting opertunity???

scotinvestor - 25 Mar 2008 09:06 - 37 of 331

shut up ted.

if thats what u wat, then go ahead and bankrupt britain....its a crap country anyway....most decent brits leve now anyway

BigTed - 25 Mar 2008 09:23 - 38 of 331

Just interested, like most here, in making money, the banks have brought it upon themselves, so no real need for any obscenities is there...?

spitfire43 - 01 Apr 2008 22:47 - 39 of 331

Interesting to see the strengh of tha banks at the moment, unfortunately I feel this is a false rally. Will keep an eye on a reverse in the markets for possible shorts, may look at AL. this time. But also Housebuilders could be tempting.

spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 14:41 - 40 of 331

Funny how sentiment can change so quickly, can't see how they can rank hbos above lloy, but what does anyone know any more. see below.

Goldman Sachs has raised HBOS Plc. to 'buy' from 'neutral' and downgraded Lloyds TSB Group Plc. to 'sell' from 'neutral' in a banking review, market sources said.

In a note published this morning, Goldman Sachs said that it is upgrading HBOS as it believes that liquidity concerns have been overdone and more than just the structural changes the domestic UK banks are facing are priced in.

The broker added that it is downgrading Lloyds TSB as it believes that recent outperformance more than reflects its perceived defensiveness.

Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs said that Barclays has been removed from its conviction list but remains a 'sell' as current prices do not reflect declining profitability and likely further earnings downgrades.

halifax - 03 Apr 2008 17:33 - 41 of 331

Goldman Suchs must hold an awful lot of HBOS shares.

spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 18:27 - 42 of 331

You may be right, even though HBOS directors have brought in last week, I wouldn't feel comfortable following them. I would still like to buy lloy lower down.
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