You could be right there on MERs view :) I find myself positioning for a bounce. Was short cable and closed of part of it this morning, still a gap to fill around 8660. Long Sept lloy, barc and dax.

Hi Kev, not given up as such, just need somewhere that is dross free. So home is here now.

Ok. AM is definately a more sedate forum than ADVFN. Plenty of good posts without the nutter element. Have'nt posted much on here, tend to read more than reply.

We may be living at one of those "times" when a previously accepted tenet changes:


http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

If you agree then the medium term outlook is poor. It may also point to the next technological advance, needed for the next bull market. Maybe time to look for the next microsoft in Fuel Cell Technology (Ashley J mentioned this sector, along with myself quite some time ago) or some other alternative power / delivery systems, eg hydrogen or a NON combustable power transfer. Time to think outside the box (cold fussion etc)

(and by bull market, I don't mean these bounces in the current bear market)

Here is me ramblings on timings for the long term IF we say that oil causes the next (and largest and last leg down).

oil shock in 04/05, causes mkts to dive (crash is so over-rated, they are rare) to new post 00 lows. 56-5800 dow is me fav. Equities are then considered cheap, oil will meet the newly restructured demand (after the culling process) and we ride a wave of newly (printed)found prosperity to 2012.

Then we crash. Like no crash ever seen before. Destruction of wealth, states, religions, "democracy", real destruction. This downward spiral doesn't happen in 1,2 or 3 years. This takes 70 years to complete. As ever though some will do well, those who control water and those that have non oil based power.

Kondrieff saw it. EW says its got to happen (corrective abc from top of 5?).

So play the mkts till 2012. Then buy land. Arable land. Grow food for your family, barter the rest with other local producers for goods you want. Bury your real gold somewhere safe for your descendants to inherit.

just in case anyone forgot,I is a bear.......

hello kev...i think this is ok ...the moderator might work...no point me posting on advfn with my stalker around my neck

blimey mick p at this rate will need to start looking for a cave to move into,over the next few years

1, 2,

1, 2,

1, 2,

testese testese 1, 2...................3!

short audusd myself..still short euro japper

Update for Friday, July 16, 2004; 5:50 PM, Eastern.


**********************************************
**********************************************

The New York Times asks today, Around the World, Markets Are the Dullest in Years. Is that Good News? Their conclusion is yes, in most cases it usually is good news for the second half of the year (to read the article, go to www.NYTimes.com). Never mind that the author uses very selective data to arrive at his conclusion, we will grant that his points are a good representation of the bullish argument at this juncture in the market. Our view, which you are aware of already through the monthly newsletter, is a bit different. In fact we addressed the very issue of a boring market in the July EWFF (see page 4, section titled, When Stocks Snooze, They Lose). Our conclusion in a nutshell: Lethargy and disinterest are dangerous traits for stock holders, as they are totally at odds with the energy and intense financial focus that carried stocks to the heights they still occupy.

Additional evidence to consider in the bull-bear debate with respect to stock prices pertains to a major theme that weve been stressing since Conquer the Crash first came out in the first quarter of 2002 liquidity matters. The high cross-correlation between disparate markets is one example of how dependant the current environment is on waxing and waning liquidity flows. Liquidity, at its very essence, is a function of social mood. It springs from the well of confidence. A waxing positive social mood appears to correlate with a collective increase in confidence, supportiveness, adventurousness, ebullience and among many other traits, a tendency to expand businesses and take risks. In a rising social mood liquidity expands freely.

A waxing negative social mood manifests itself in a collective increase in discord, exclusion, anger, fear, protectionism and among many other traits, a tendency to reduce business ventures and restrict risk-taking. In a declining social mood liquidity, on average, contracts.

The emergence of a world-wide liquidity problem is slowly starting to trickle to the surface and reflects a turn in confidence from an intermediate-term uptrend since the fall of 2002 to a downtrend starting earlier this year. Throughout 2003 EWFF said the problems would wash ashore from overseas and this progression appears to be unfolding as forecast. Last Friday we discussed the failure of a large Russian bank and the run on the deposits of others. Yesterday a Bloomberg columnist wrote that Default is Becoming a Way of Life in Argentina, as Argentinas Mendoza province has recently defaulted on a large bond issue. The article notes that since Argentina defaulted (as a country) in 2001, they have made no substantive attempt to settle with their bondholders. And today Bloomberg news reports that Taiwans central bank said it may have to step in to ensure stability in the islands mutual fund industry after investor withdrawals forced five funds to halt redemptions. Standard and Poors hit the nail on the head when they termed the quality (or lack thereof) of financial reporting by companies in Taiwan as a crisis of confidence.

In truth, its ALL about confidence, that ephemeral emotion that resides in the portion of the brain governed by the limbic system. Each of the seemingly unconnected events that unfold in society, from financial to cultural, are in fact part of the tapestry of social mood. Social mood turned in earnest from a rising trend to declining one in 2000 and we are seeing the leading edge of a move back toward the continuation of this downtrend. As it progresses toward its inevitable pessimistic extreme, so too will the bear market progress in stocks and the deflationary spiral that we have detailed in our forecasts. Those who know where to look can see the divisiveness of a declining collective mood manifest itself in many forms, from sports to music to fashion to presidential politics (for a more in-depth discussion go to www.socionomics.com). It may not be pleasant to live through, but the forewarning that we have via the Wave Principle may at least allow us to remove ourselves and our families from harms way.

am I allowed to post here as a freerider? Just clicked on Traders room(new window) and THIS money am window said I had not subscribed as well as the Traders room window. Odd

moregas
Where am I?
In the MoneyAM Village
What do you want?
Information
Whose side are you on?
That would be telling . .

Moderators or not i see a squech buttono above.

Anyway..there isn't Favourites is there? If there s point me pls.

which lines r mine Moon?

PS of course u can ignore my last email now

food time

We want Information
You won't get it
By hook or by crook . . .
We will
Who are you?
The new Number Two
Who is Number One?
You are Number Six
I am not a number . . .
I'm a free man!

Looks like the risk is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger.......

19 Jul 2004 12:59 GMT


MARKET TALK: Carry Trades Are Back In Vogue

Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(call: 201 938 2397; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

8:59 (Dow Jones) After a mild June CPI report that reaffirms a modest pace of Fed tightening and rangebound Treasury yields, the buzz is that the carry trade is being put back on. Morgan Stanley research says recent "spread tightening seen in the emerging and high yield markets is a sign that the carry game is being played once again." Over at BofA, analysts note mild inflation and a "sickeningly predictable" pace of rate hikes means "investors are left with the choice of accepting the low rates of return offered across capital markets, or taking on levered risk." (MLM)