Shares mag. recommending this stock this week. Is this going to be our killer this christmas!!!! any comments anyone?????

Look at the latest news --- Goldmans sold all their stock on Tuesday -- 7.8% of the co!!--- they were selling before announcement, and took advantage of the good news which bought in volume to rid themselves of a meaningless position for them --- this is a big positive for this stock --- stop losses remain ridiculous in this sort of stock while institutions do not care what price they get once they have decided to rid themselves of it.

See my comment higher up that this is what we could have expected

Confident, yes, good to see the RNS this afternoon confirming that as of 4.30 pm two days ago, our big seller (Goldman Sachs) that was forcing the market makers down, no longer had a notifiable interest in CEN, i.e. their shareholding fell to below 3%. Presumably their holding is now just somewhere between 3% and zero, and they will either have cleared any remaining stock in the last two days, or be on the verge of clearing. Following this and with the recent announcement of successful European PIII M6G results, the share price should climb to its rightful fair value of four or five times the current level.

good that's goldman out the way

Tempting to add again, Goldman might just have provided another buying opportunity on CEN by selling thier large stake. We have EU phase III results now that confirm performnace, next stage is USA. Surely a licencing partner will follow soon to progress this, not to mention the other products in the pipeline. sp is too low IMO.

Agreed Andy and topped up today as a result although its reported as a sell. Imo there's value in this one, that seems to have excaped the market. We can all debate pricing theories, but improved performance must carry weight in the eyes of the ultimate purchasing decision makers.

Eventually this value must out - just a matter of time I would suggest.

andysmith
andy you never got back in on ASM then, CEN should at least be heading in asm's direction having a drug in phase III and also the pipe line as you say.

Driver, didn't get back into ASM, much to my annoyance.
Got bored with sp moving between 18p-23p so took my dosh out which seemed good when they nose-dived to 12.5p last year after Roche pulled out but the strong pipeline of products and continued excellent results has pulled sp higher. Same could be true for CEN although I see that brokers have gone neutral from strong buy? Maybe results of phase III not as convincing as they'd hoped but surely a pharma would be interested in a product as efficient as morphine but without side affects? I'd like to know why the downgrade.

.

Broker Cannacord Adams down-graded as in their opinion the M6G results may not have been significant enough statistically to gain a licensing deal and the trial may have to be repeated. This makes current situation speculative only in terms of timescale, if CEN do have to repeat the phase III trial I guess more money need to be raised, I guess it depends on what view potential licensing partners have?
Next week will be a good gauge of market reaction dependant upon whether Goldman have got rid of all of the stock that they want to, they have <3% but that could be nothing at all or 13m ish.

Andy - There are 3 key results of which one (POINT 3 BELOW) is regarded as potentially not statistically significant;

1. Patients receiving M6G experienced a 28% reduction in the severity of post-operative nausea and vomiting (PONV) in the key 6 - 24hours after treatment (statistically significant, p=0.018).

2.In addition, the incidence of dry retching/vomiting in the M6G arm compared to
the morphine arm in the 24 hour period after treatment was reduced by 32%
(statistically significant, p= 0.044).

3. The incidence and severity of post-operative nausea in the M6G arm was 27% less than that observed in the morphine arm in the period 6 - 24 hours after treatment. This was the second primary endpoint and approached statistical significance (p=0.052).


You will of course note that we are talking about 1% variance here, and that at the end of the day its on the right side (ie 27% better) - even if this result tests again and is netral (ie No improvement/deterioation) then the trial would have succeeded on 2 out of 3 counts, and have no detrimental effect on the 3rd measure.

Surely that is sucess ?

Flackwell, I agree. The Times (21/2/2006) reported the following:

Its a decent late-stage trial result, said Navid Malik, pharmaceuticals analyst at Collins Stewart.

Agreed folks, just establishing why the fall and a downgrade could be the reason however as my mate Driver points out, ASM dived to 12p last year after Roche pulled out of working with them but the quality of the pipeline has seen a rise to 50pish. CEN has the good results, will pusue the US and has other products on test, hence ny comment speculative only in terms of timescale, this will come good and CEN is undervalued IMO.

Investors Chronicle
23rd February 2007 (page 14)

Relief for CeNeS Investors

CeNeS shares rose by 3% to 8.62p after the company announced encouraging data from late-stage trials of morphine replacement M6G. In post-operative patients, the product provided the same quality of pain relief as morphine, but with reduced nausea. However, the shares dipped after Karl Keegan, analyst at Canaccord Adams, downgraded them from buy to hold. He says the nausea reduction was not statistically significant and that CeNeS could have to do another trial.

Tip Update

The shares are below our buy tip (10p, 20th May 2005). But, with the potential for a licensing deal, they remain a speculative buy.

..........................

Personally, I now consider OXB to be the best punt on prospects of a deal.

I bet CeNeS's management and shareholders are livid with Karl Keegan's (Canaccord) comments about a possible further PIII trial (following the European PIII M6G results last week) although he appears to be correct.

right, all this crap is now history! are any partnering deals gonna happen,if not cen will tread water.

The market gets what its been waiting for,and its down 30%,i give up.

Annoyingly (maybe not now), my trailing stop banked the profit for me Thursday and I was looking to buy them back and add at the same time. Too busy Friday however glad I waited as it looks like the market does not like the comments and downgrades and the possibility of delays to market. I still believe that CEN will deliver M6G, lets face it, it is as good as morphine and without the side affects. I have researched over the weekend and the report has been put out on many pharmaceutical and clinical websites. Staying put for now whilst this bottoms out, I've learnt before that you cannot beat the market with your own loyalty but I will be back in once the dust settles.

andysmith,i will hold and add @6p,think thats the best option for me,feel sorry for those that bought recently @9 on the day of the RNS,i agree long term it should be a winner.

It would appear though that whilst Goldman are selling that others are adding to their holdings. Two recent RNS, Gartmore now exceeded 10% and Unniverstites Superannuation exceeded 3%. Maybe this is why the drop, Goldman may still have >10m shares and the buyers want a cheaper price just in case there are delays? Watching closely here but I have time after this fall. CEN will deliver M6G if as good as reported, the side affects of morphine are not good. I think CENES need to come out and respond to the comments of Karl Keegan and advise whether another phase III for Europe is required before licensing deals are likely.

Announcement today: Gartmore declare a 10.3% (49,977,758 shares) holding in CEN.