will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

proptrade - already in (too high as usual!) I am sorely tempted by today's prices, but like you will sit and wait for a positive move up before committing more funds.

SD

it is just because orders=acceptance and like SEO, once you have landed the big one u can buy with confidence

Has anyone noticed that the SP now trades at par with the net asset value per share of 12.18p, as per accounts published last Thursday?

This is almost startgin to approach a value share - buy on asset value and hold long-term until something happens to revalue it.

Any takers? Go on - profit in a box for the taking, you know you want to!

SD

and the cash burn issue!

Well, I am assuming that they are attempting to generate orders that will cover the cash burn which I am well aware of. Meanwhile, I estimate that cash on the BS at 31st December is about a year and a third's operating cash with no gross profit - so it's sh*t, bust or fund-raise this year, no doubt about it. If they don't make any sales, this will also severely limit their development in other areas and good bye to acquisitions.

Let's see the trading statement at the half year, if not some news (like a nice fat juicy order to BA and Singapore Airlines) before then.

SD

Declared as oversold by the Daily Mail today, think I will go along with that.

Definitely oversold - agreeing with the DM, whatever next!

Just kicking myself I was away for Friday/Monday when the offer price dipped below 12p when I would have topped up big time. Have followed the price down from 20p to 14p so am well out of the money, but more than happy to sit tight, well over weight, and wait for reality to dawn over the next few months.

The paradigm remains intact and RHPS's Tom Bulford has talked to their finance director who says deals from the 3 US airlines that are not in Chapter 11 are on the way, whilst their CEO is at this very moment (or was last week) in China discussing JV possibilities with the Chinese Airline.

BUY - IMHO DYOR

SD

And a little snippet from thisismoney today

Scrappy selling left Aerobox p off at 12p. It looks oversold. Saudi Arabian Airlines ordered 500 of its AKE air cargo containers in December. Word is that another contract from a major airline is on the conveyor belt.

Looking good - keep the faith!

SD

Copied from the iii bb from lozzak

Tue 09:59 red hot penny shares - update lozzaK

"this is from the weekly email that is sent out by red hot penny shares.

Aerobox (ARX): I had a long chat with
Aerobox finance director Richard Scott
after last week's slightly unnerving
annual results. The disappointment
stemmed from Aerobox's inability to
announce any new contracts, but these
should not be long delayed. Of the six
North American carriers, three are in
bankruptcy, but each of the remaining
three have completed satisfactory trials.

One has requested some design changes,
but could be in a position to place an
order within weeks. An interesting aspect
of this is that the Aerobox can be
X-rayed, and by implanting an RF chip, it
can be tracked. These distinguish the
Aerobox from aluminium containers and
have excited the guys at the
Department of Homeland Security.

Aerobox is also hopeful of landing fresh
orders from the Middle East, where
airlines are certainly not short of cash.
And Aerobox's chief executive is in China,
seeing the four Chinese airlines,
officials from the Chinese Aviation
Authority, as well as potential joint
venture partners.

Refrigerated containers for the food and
pharmaceutical industries are also in
trials, while Aerobox's unique material
could have applications in the military
and auto markets. Overall, the sales
timetable has slipped. Airlines are doing
all they can to make do with old aluminium
boxes, but they cannot stretch their life
indefinitely and there is no reason to
doubt the superiority of the Aerobox, or
that it will become the industry standard.
The fall in the shares is an
over-reaction. BUY "

Not a bad partner for SEO - revolutionary packaging applied to a core essential business worldwide with spin-off potential - fantastic business model.

Owwww!!!! the pain!

Can't they even sell these boxes as kennels?

40% down overall on my overweigth position - I take post 236 back entirely. It's a good example of "these shares can't go any lower, can they?". Yes the can, my son, yes they can.

I know it's been a bleak day for the DOW and the FTSE caught it too, but not my little shares too, please.

Oh, well, 60hrs when I can't do a thing about it (unless I spreadbet the house after hours on the FTSE bounce next week! lol) - just have to get me embouchure back in shape on me new euph.

Back to basket to lick wounds. Anyone any hope to offer?

SD

Stockdog,
I'm bleeding with you and confirm its painful.
Wonder if these panels could be fashioned for freight lorries etc, with a possibilty of a homing tag built in for when they are nicked and of couse the availabilty of seeing whats inside.

Looking at the chart (with hindsight), instead of buying more at 14.1, I should have takne the breach of the 14p mid price support as a sell signal (however tough) on my 20p and 18p holdings. Then, if I still believed in the fundamentals (as I do, so long as they make some sales!) waited and watched for a strongly positive bit of news - like a major sell to a big airline, or a capital-free JV with a Chinese airline.

Just shows that averaging down can be very risky, as it certainly has been here. Had I sold at the 14p support-break (a 13p bid price) I would have been down 37% on 60% of what I hold now, equivalent to only losing 22% of 100% of what I hold now.

Again, looking at the chart and drawing a line from the low in April 2003 to the low in June 2004, its extrapolation to today shows we could go as low as 10p before we hit support again - that would be a 9p bid price - ouch!!! a further 10% loss, representing a 49% overall loss for me, compared to the 22% equivalent loss if I'd sold at the support-break.

However, with a piece of good news reversing the trend the upside potential before we hit the resistance line of the same long-term down channel could be as high as 34p. Well, you have to allow me a little optimism.

Anyone got a better plan for me than to continue to hold and hope?

yours as ever

Stop Loss - er, I mean Stock Dog

I got rid of these at 18p, having bought at 38p
I invested in Stanelco--a wise decision me thinks!!

Good move Keith.

BTW, just done a little analysis on the 37 stocks I've traded and/or still hold over the last 6.5 months, dividing them into 25% bands, ranging from loss of 25% or more up to gains over 175%. The pattern of distribution over these ranges is highly informative, as follows:-

+175-200% 1 stock
+75-100% 1 stock
+50-75% 3 stocks
+25-50% 3 stocks
+0-25% 8 stocks
-0-25% 15 stocks
-25-50% 5 stocks

20 lost/are losing = 54%; 17 won/are winning = 46%. That's a win/loss ratio of 0.85 - less than 50% success rate in picking stocks. However, the winners have gained 66% more than the losers have lost with a win/lose ratio, in money terms, of 1.66. My overall performance to date is 9.5% up, in a week when the market is gloomy in general.

My winners are up 23% on their capital, my losses are down 14% on theirs. Had I restricted my 5 losers in excess of 25% with strict stop losses, my money win/loss ratio I estimate would be nearer 2.40 and my overall return about 13.5% - about 50% more than actual.

The point of this slightly tedious arithmetic is to demonstrate that you make real money out of a few long-running winners as long as you stop short your losers.

Furthermore, all my larger losers, had I stop-lossed them at say 85% of the bid price at purchase (which gives a fair degree of freedom not to be stopped out through trivial dips in SP) could have been bought back into at a lower price after allowing both selling and re-buying dealing costs and spread, had I still had fundamental belief in them - which I do, that's why I still hold them. And the sooner you stop loss them, the truer this is, of course.

Just a little exercise to re-convince me to set and use stop losses without flinching rather than let the sentiment that we are all prone to allow me to keep holding "nice" stocks in spite of Mr Market's advice.

Hope this is useful to others who suffer similar inability in the selling department.

SD

So,you are going for a 15% stop loss,right?
Talking about big losses and what to do when the sp has crashed and one's holding has dwindled from thousands to hundreds of pounds(in my case the dreadful Wiggins transformed into the hateful Painstation/Planestation)because one stared mesmerised at the falling sp and seemed physically unable to sell;my answer is to forget the share and pay little attention to it,thereby avoiding constant recrimination and regrets.I don't check the chart,I do nothing other than calmly watch for a useful rns.
I am afraid that a share going bust is a possibility in the market.With Aerobox I think there is real potential...just needs the first decent contract...maybe Virgin...Branson is'nt stupid!Maybe Arab Emirates...these boxes don't get too hot,do they?
Don't give up hope and I think that guaranteed stop losses are essential in today's volatile market where the small caps are particularly subject to attack.

ethel
with a stop loss there is nothing to stop you buying in again lower after the SP has fallen. On the other hand, if it falls no further before rising sharply, then there is no reason not to take that as a good safe buying indicator to getback in again, albeit losing a few 's getting in and out and on the first bit of the new rise.

I think the stop loss should be the automaton bit, not ignoring the SP and reading RNS. But as we all know the St Loss is more sinned against than sinning.

SD

stockdog...your analysis very helpful as I also suffer from the same problem...however would any of your winners have been stoped? and if so are you sure to have bought in again?

keith...like you am still a ptg sufferer but being rather dim still hold a few and also like you am hoping to recover on seo...the persistent and continuing deramping of ptg is a matter of ammazement and has undoubtedly driven ptg almost over the brink.

Seem to be quite a few buys going through today, but no price movement yet.

titpton11 - sorry, no time to answer at length, but a) probably and b) who knows, once sold ones POV tends to change

SD