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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hodgins - 09 Dec 2004 23:40 - 2314 of 11056

long term bull but Euro short via sb from just above 3325 after the sharpish rise earlier this evening.
It seems to be knocking hard on uptrend supports on daily, hourly and five minutes and under the very recent short term downtrends on all of these as well.
Also getting below recent horizontal support and making lower highs.
Anyone want to knock this argument out of the water for now?

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 07:08 - 2315 of 11056

I agree.. This morning it still looks short to me. Euro and Sterling..

There is support at 1.3190 on the Euro and 1.9100 on cable.

Most Bank Forecasts are lower to these levels then chance of reversal. I would say 75% Short 25% Long on the Strategy/Forecasts. Although 90% Short to these levels and out 10% break through.. to lower levels.

Sit on hands time for the next 30mins or so... See what happens as traders get to work.

hilary - 10 Dec 2004 07:11 - 2316 of 11056

AUD Trade Balance (OCT) 0:30 19:30 -1850M -2105M
AUD Australia-Japan Economic Conference 1:30 20:30
JPY Consumer Confidence (NOV) 5:00 0:00 46.7 47.7
EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV P) 7:45 2:45 1.9% 2.1%
EUR French CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (NOV P) 7:45 2:45 -0.2% 0.4%
EUR French CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (NOV P) 7:45 2:45 2.1% 2.3%
EUR French Trade Balance (Euros) (OCT) 7:45 2:45 -750M -794M
EUR French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV P) 7:45 2:45 -0.1% 0.3%
EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT) 7:50 2:50 -0.3% 3.2%
EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) 7:50 2:50 1.8% 2.9%
EUR French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (OCT) 7:50 2:50 -0.4% 4.0%
EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT) 7:50 2:50 2.7% 3.8%
CHF Swiss Statistics Office Reports October Retail Sales 8:15 3:15
CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (OCT) 8:15 3:15 -0.30%
EUR Italy GDP sa and wda (QoQ) (3Q F) 9:30 4:30 0.4% 0.4%
EUR Italy Private Consumption (3Q) 9:30 4:30 0.3% -0.3%
EUR Italy Government Spending (3Q) 9:30 4:30 0.2% 0.7%
EUR Italy Total Investments (3Q) 9:30 4:30 0.3% 1.4%
EUR Italy Exports (3Q) 9:30 4:30 1.6% 4.7%
EUR Italy Imports (3Q) 9:30 4:30 1.5% 2.7%
EUR Italy GDP sa and wda (YoY) (3Q F) 9:30 4:30 1.3% 1.3%
EUR Euro-zone Current Account (QoQ) (3Q) 10:00 5:00 8.7B
EUR Euro-zone OECD Leading Ind. (OCT) 11:00 6:00 106.4
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (NOV) 13:30 8:30 0.20% 1.7%
USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (NOV) 13:30 8:30 0.2% 1.70%
USD Producer Price Price Index (YoY) (NOV) 13:30 8:30 4.7% 4.4%
USD PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (NOV) 13:30 8:30 1.8%
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (3Q) 13:30 8:30 85.0% 84.60%
CAD Labor Productivity QoQ (3Q) 13:30 8:30 0.0% 0.10%
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P) 14:45 9:45 94.1 92.8
USD Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) 19:00 14:00 -$52.0B -$57.3B
EUR ECB Issing Speaks at ECB Inflation Conference 20:00 15:00





hodgins - 10 Dec 2004 07:31 - 2317 of 11056

Euro sitting on horizontal support, IF it goes any further, there could be quite a lot of space below for now?

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 07:36 - 2318 of 11056

Not sure yet... :/

hilary - 10 Dec 2004 07:45 - 2319 of 11056

Mail on the way, T.

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 07:59 - 2320 of 11056

Thanks.

Wise or not wise.. I decided to go short about 10mins or so ago.. Would have posted but been watching like a hawk.. This is an important trade for my P/L so cant affor to make any stratgey mistakes today..

Fingers Crossed! Come on everybody cross em!!

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 08:11 - 2321 of 11056

Moved my stop to 65 the curent higher high. Now there seems to be a lower low in place.. Come on B/E!

Any one else thoughts on this animal today?

Bobcolby - 10 Dec 2004 08:39 - 2322 of 11056

Heading for Moneyam lunch today and off to Dublin for a few days on Monday.
wont be trading for a week. Hope you all make lots of money.

My only thoughts for today are food and booze.

mg - 10 Dec 2004 08:40 - 2323 of 11056

Tellon
Off to the Xmas party today but, otherwise would have probably been with you on the short. Currently kicking myself because I nearly went short overnight in anticipation of a further pull back - would have been a cracker.

However, having said that I would be wary of holding on for too much more than 19100 level 'cos I think there may well be a bounce in there at some stage today. All IMHO and as a very new boy on the cable.

Hope you smash back into the blue with that trade ;)

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 10:13 - 2324 of 11056

Thanks guys,

Enjoy your pissups! My first is not till tonight so Im ok for the day..

Im back in the black with this trade so far but ive not exited yet so still time to lose for me!

Hope not..

hodgins - 10 Dec 2004 10:36 - 2325 of 11056

Still short Euro,so not as many ticks as those on the pound, trailing stop 30 away but not sure it wants to stay onder 3180.
Booze later.

Tellon - 10 Dec 2004 11:04 - 2326 of 11056

Im out.. @ 155 +80 pts.

I agree that cable would have returned more but I would have been whipsawed oyut for about +20 with that retrace on cable. Happy I stuck with the Euro.. Plus the euro you use a larger postion to make up for the smaller moves.

Back in the Black! By 40pips!

Nice end to the week for me! Phew!!

hilary - 11 Dec 2004 14:57 - 2327 of 11056

Country/ Currency Event GMT EST CONSENSUS PREVIOUS

Sunday

NZD Food Prices (MoM) (Nov) 21:45 16:45 0.0%
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (Nov) 12-17 DEC -0.1% 0.5%
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (Nov) 12-17 DEC 2.0% 2.0%

Monday

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (Nov) 4:00 23:00 20.8%
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) (Final) 4:00 23:00 -1.6%
JPY Industrial Production (YoY)) (Oct) (Final) 4:00 23:00 -1.1%
JPY Capacity Utilization (YoY)) (Oct) (Final) 4:00 23:00 102.1
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) 5:30 0:30 -2.8%
EUR ECB Mersch Speaks 8:00 3:00
ITL Industrial Production sa (MoM) (Oct) 8:30 3:30 0.2% 0.5%
ITL Industrial Production wda (YoY)) (Oct) 8:30 3:30 -0.3% 0.8%
ITL Industrial Production sa (YoY) (Oct) 8:30 3:30 -0.2% 0.8%
GBP PPI Input sa (MoM) (Nov) 9:30 5:30 -1.5% 1.8%
GBP PPI Input sa (YoY) (Nov) 9:30 5:30 6.1% 8.1%
GBP PPI Output nsa (MoM) (Nov) 9:30 5:30 0.1% 0.7%
GBP PPI Output nsa (YoY) (Nov) 9:30 5:30 3.5% 3.5%
GBP PPI Output sa (ex FBTP) (YoY) (Nov) 9:30 5:30 3.0% 3.0%
GBP ODPM UK Housing Prices (YoY) (Oct) 9:30 5:30 13.0% 13.8%
GBP CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey 11:00 6:00
CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Oct) 13:30 8:30 7.0% -3.2%
USD Advance Retail Sales (Nov) 13:30 8:30 -0.1% 0.2%
USD Retail Sales Ex-Auto (Nov) 13:30 8:30 0.3% 0.9%
USD Business Inventories (Oct) 13:30 8:30 0.5% 0.1%
NZD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 21:45 16:45 0.4% 0.4%

hodgins - 12 Dec 2004 21:49 - 2328 of 11056

short cable sb around 9163 small stake from near the death on Friday PM while putting children to bed. It still seems under previous uptrend and recent downtrend with inviting potential gaps below for now even though I am sure it will be 2.15? next year?

Tellon - 13 Dec 2004 07:18 - 2329 of 11056

Cable looks short to me too. With EUR & CHF Following...

Not sure just yet though need to watch for 20mins or so...

GBP 1.9 is the target For EUR 1.313

Tellon - 13 Dec 2004 07:32 - 2330 of 11056

Most banks see Monday as uncertain with dollar weakness back on Tuesday. I can see historicaly at this time of year there is lower volume and high volatility. So I think there could be bigger swings up and down, Quick with the need for tighter stops... IMO

Tellon - 13 Dec 2004 07:47 - 2331 of 11056

Short the Euro in the end.. Cable just to volatile for me at the moment. Short from 1.3273.

hodgins - 13 Dec 2004 08:07 - 2332 of 11056

gainlocked out cable +5, glad of tight stop, not trying agaim just yet.

Tellon - 13 Dec 2004 10:54 - 2333 of 11056

-30 for me.. Looked good to start but got stopped out.

I have yet to make any profit on a Monday I think its my WhoDoo day..
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