Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Really difficult to determine...
The choices;



where wave 'B' has finished. This has wave 3 reaching 200% of wave 1, but a tiny wave 4 which i don't like. Or;



This is preferred. We have just had a def 5w short move, but was it a fresh wave 1 (of the larger 'C')? or was it 'c' of the 4th?

Looking at it on the 1min chart and it looked corrective, but a wave c doing 361.8% of wave a???! Hmmmm enough to scare me out of the trade. Oh the market is so sly;

So earlier, i had my fibs for pullback of subwave iii ('iv') and it reached the 70.7% level. Usually i enter a part position here, but today, i decided to have more discipline and wait for it to hit the 61.8% level. PA looked like a really fast abc which i reckoned would just be the A wave of the corrective wave. It wasn't, it went higher without me.

Later, i am waiting for what i consider is the wave 4 proper. I have my fib levels ready. Wave 3 was extended, so often we only reach the 76.4% level. Further (as above) we have a really shallow A&B wave, so naturally i think it wont drop far. I mistook a small 5w minor for the C, coinciding with the 76.4% level and open part position. It then tanked south as you can see in the chart, i opened another part position at the 70.7% and a final one at the 61.8% level. This time it went deeper. I started to doubt with the speed it was traveling and the possibility of the alternative count where we had possibly finished wave B, that i could be wrong. I close and recognise the loss. Now it heads off up without me.


Knowing what is likely to happen sometimes isn't enough. I have been waiting all afternoon for the wave 4, to get onboard long. When it happened, it was far far deeper than i imagined and a lot swifter. Once again the market uses speed as scare tactics... works a treat. I need to be more mechanical. To lose money going long on the Eu today is mental when you look at the rise. Poor trading and i'm disappointed with myself.

Ending diagonals, flavour of the day?

Yesterday;



Today;

Or simpler;

Above but on the 5min;

and the possible bigger picture;



The reason being is that it looks certain it was a 3w move up, this should be corrected by a 3 wave back down possibly to make it either a flat or irregular. The 261.8% fib (of 'A') would be nice. Building the picture, but looks like we might have our wave 2 in progress. An X wave instead would change things substantially, so caution req'd as the drop might not be so large. Certainly will be looking to get short if i can determine the end of the 5min 'c' above.

Post 237;



So the 'b'wave was deeper than i expected. Apologies, i will try to be more accurate in the future! )

Little bit more thought gone into this and now i see this;

Remember this?



Update;

Earlier;



Think that's your lot for downside for a while;

5-3-5 ABC, with 'C' = 138.2% of 'A';

Also GbpJpy, looking like finishing its WXY corrective move. Incidentally it also came down to within a pip of breaking its prior reflex point;



Could be good for some upside, lets see... I'm long with stop pip below the low.

Ok, gonna have to rely on small timescales, cos i'm now sure we need to correct downwards. The 4hr says to me that we have already had a 5-3-5 (W) move and then an 'X' wave to connect the next set (Y), of which the first move was clearly in 3, so should it not become a flat/irreg?, that would mean a bad week for the Euro ahead;

At last the FTSE throws up something recognisable )

I have a 4th wave abc retracing 38.2% of prior wave 3, so now in the 5th of this cycle. Fib extensions are drawn in. The 61.8% is the common target, but its not possible to predict that until the structure of this wave becomes clearer. It looks initially like a normal impulse move, but 5ths can morph into all sorts. I have also made the abc corrective a very simple zigzag, but of course it can be anything... flat/irreg/wedge etc... Lets see, but i have highlighted a target;

Was stopped out of GbpJpy yesterday, trading complex correctives is actually not a sensible idea, the discipline req'd is substantial. Very poor results recently. Here was a slightly better one earlier;



Update;

FTSE;

We have just hit our head against both 6200 and the upper Elliott channel line. The wave structure doesn't look to me to be finished yet, so we might just correct back slightly first before giving it a better test tomorrow. As suggested 5th's can be difficult to determine because they can morph into ending diagonals and allow crossover between 'i' & 'iv'. Here's an example;

Ok, well 61.8% ext target achieved, but not as i thought it would, (i did say that it's difficult to determine unless we can read the structure!). It's possible the 5th might be complete already, but i can't make a decent count for a 'iv', so it's more likely it has higher to come yet. Tough call tbh. The other possibility is to extend a further parallel line off of the top of the 3rd and i think this now looks likely. It also means the 5th might yet extend and reach 100% level, (or even further). Can't advise, but you have to agree that the way it reacted to the 61.8% level was canny )

Trying to predict structure at mo is impossible, but just for fun, i am showing another poss, where you can see that now the 5th of the 5th can also extend;

Thanks for the FTSE viewpoint.

You're welcome big bloke )
I am certain the 'iv' is correct, so wasn't difficult to predict the 61.8% as a min target. Fifth's can grind on up mercilessly and continue to have extended subwaves, so its difficult to call an absolute top for this cycle, but i would imagine if, it goes higher again now, it will bang its head on the upper trendline drawn off of the top of the 'iii' wave.

Ej reacting nicely to its fibs reproduced off of corrective wave A. Just bounced off of the 100% level, but i doubt it is finished yet. A few more common targets below;

Remember this;



well, it seems, i was guilty of what i have been preaching elsewhere recently; the tendency to label everything impulsely. We are correcting and thus, it is a WXY move (2 sets of abc together with an 'X' wave in between). I believe we are within the 'C' of the second set now;



Fairly obviously, the converse to the 61.8% top mentioned in the chart is that we simply retraced 61.8% of the W wave for our X wave.