Just feel free to put down any share/shares you feel will do well in 2016 and future years.

Market Buzz

Numis adds Virgin Money, Derwent and Northgate to 'top picks' list

Fri, 01 April 2016


ARM Holdings Quote more

Price: 1,020.00

Chg: 6.00

Chg %: 0.59%

Date: 15:54



(ShareCast News) - Numis sell-side analysts provided a list of their top picks among large and small cap stocks across the market, including ARM Holdings, Virgin Money, Derwent London, Tullow Oil, Northgate and Vectura.
After another strong set of quarterly results, ARM remains the top pick as Numis believes the recent investments should be taken as a sign of confidence that historic growth rates can be sustained as ARM deepens its value add in existing markets and continues to address new markets.

"The analyst meeting indicated confidence in further growth in mobile despite slower growth in smartphone volumes, with growth coming from higher royalties with increased performance as with v8, multiple cores and additional IP," the broker said, with strong prospects in enterprise infrastructure and 'embedded intelligence'.

The stock trades at a p/e of 28.8x, below the bottom of the 30-55x historic range, whereas prospects to sustain earnings growth at least in the high teens "continue to remain very strong".

Virgin Money was added to the list on the view that it will continue to benefit from both strong earnings growth and improving return on tangible equity (ROTE) while markets remain favourable and mainstream competition is "distracted/restricted".

"Furthermore, improved utilisation of the operating infrastructure acquired from Northern Rock should, in our view, underpin significant balance sheet growth for very little incremental cost." A target price of 490p is more than £1 above the current market price.

Derwent London is another new addition to the top picks portfolio, replacing British Land, with the comment that its return profile evolved through FY15 with the mix of returns has shifting from yields to estimated rental value (ERV) growth.

ERVs have been accelerating since early 2013, they remain some way below levels seen in 2006 but, while slowing, are thought likely to remain positive through to 2019.

"Rising construction capacity constraints and cost inflation increase the likelihood of delays across the broader London development pipeline but DLN has locked in construction packages and costs, in sterling-terms, on three of its four live developments, and is close to finalising the remaining package for 80 Charlotte St."

While there are macro uncertainties such as the mayoral election and Brexit vote, a strong balance sheet, an attractive development pipeline and significant organic reversion off low passing rents, gives analysts confidence in their 3,850p target price.

Tullow, despite being among the most shorted stocks on the FTSE, remains in the list on analysts belief that Tullow "could be ideally positioned for a future recovery in oil prices", as it is able to withstand a period of low oil prices while completing its major development project, the TEN field offshore Ghana where first oil is due in the middle of this year.

On Vectura, Numis set a price target of 264p, offering around 60% updside to the current price on a 12-month view as the respiratory specialist merges with peer Skyepharma in "one of the most complementary mergers in the UK Healthcare sector", as the enlarged group has competitive advantages in both drug delivery and respiratory formulations and offers exposure to several emerging royalty streams through partnerships with Big Pharma partners.

"Vectura specifically benefits from Skyepharma's fast growing earnings and cash-flow, which will, in our opinion, accelerate the enlarged group's transition to being a specialist pharmaceutical company with the financial strength to commercialise novel drugs and devices in niche segments itself."

House stock Northgate is another new name on the list, with a target price of 560p as the shares are felt to offer an "attractive combination of cyclical and selfhelp growth drivers, income attractions, and a valuation that reflects the historic
changes to the depreciation rates and UK operational issues, rather than the scope for further improvement".

insider%3A-betting-big-food-and-drugs

MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-plastic-fantastic-firm-Epwin-Group-decks-homes.

Sun, 03 April 2016

Sunday share tips: Card Factory, Direct Line, Epwin Group



(ShareCast News) - Shares in Card Factory are worth buying, said the Sunday Times' Inside the City column. Although its longstanding boss is about to retire and be replaced by discounter B&M's Karen Hubbard, she joins a company whose business model generates fistfuls of cash from an amazingly cheap offering. As Card Factory, unlike its rivals, makes almost all its own cards even the ones it sells for under 50p make a profit.
Analysts at Liberum capital said Card Factory's integrated production facilities create a significant advantage over competitors and predict the company has the potential to bestow £400m in dividend payouts between now and 2023. At the half-year stage for example it paid a 15p per share special dividend on top of a 2.5p interim payout and is expected to increase last year's 4.5p final dividend. Hubbard will be expected to continue the plan to increase the store count 50% from the current 800 in the coming years and not do too much to upset the perfect balance.

Direct Line shares are a 'hold' for Questor in the Sunday Telegraph partly due to its fairly robust income reputation in its few years since splitting off from RBS. Storms and ensuing floods in the north of the UK over the winter will cost the insurer's commercial arm £140m while its car and household insurance businesses have remained in the black to help full year results beat forecasts. There are several issues in the sector to ponder with Direct Line, not least the seemingly increasingly stormy weather.

The state-backed Flood Re scheme will go live on 4 April, to which all insurers contribute but are due to benefit from a rise in potential customers and access to shared data on risky areas. An increase in the insurance premium tax from 6% to 10% by the coming October will see proceeds used to improve flood defences, with insurers expected to shift the cost on to customers. Another factor is about about how to cater for financially squeezed younger drivers, but Direct Line has recruited young YouTube star Alfie Deyes to highlight its telematics-based insurance offering, which is among the most popular in the country.

Epwin Group is a long term 'buy' for Midas in the Mail on Sunday. AIM-listed Epwin supplies plastic products such as door frames, decking, guttering, even chimneys and other fittings for houses. Although a plastic chimney seems strange, Epwin has ridden the back of improving plastics technology which requires less maintenance and are often cheaper. But unlike their traditional brick counterparts they need replacing every 15-20 years, which creates a happy cycle for companies like Epwin.

While the replacement cycle has not moved as fast as some hopes, the cash-rich company has been buying rivals that specialise in other areas such as wood-plastic composites, and fibreglass dormers and roofing. Management are pursuing a steady style of growth, though if forthcoming annual results deliver the forecast 10% profits growth that's far from slouching, with a dividend of 6.6p also expected as part of a rewarding pay-out policy.

TRADER-TIPS-Buy-Tui-ditch-Weir-Group-company-suffering-slump-oil-metal-prices.

Stock-market-winners-losers-2016.

questor-share-tip-next-struggles-as-credit-customers-fall

/top-unloved-aim-shares-strong-returns