I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

The high security cockpit doors thing is a complete waste of time and money. It's a crazy fixation. If the loony is on the plane armed with anything whatsoever, you're in trouble. BA is about to ground Concorde for good anyway, sadly.

Meanwhile, one friend of mine who works for a "three-letter agency" in the US is already authorised to carry a gun (a Smith and Wesson .45) on board scheduled passenger aircraft while on duty. Anybody who knows anything about guns, ballistics and aircraft construction knows how crazy that is as well.

Anyone who flies now is subjected to a surreal experience of being treated as a wealthy lunatic -- anything I can do for you sir, a drink, massage, but don't bring anything sharp on board and you can't have metal cutlery in case you run amok.

Complete nuts.

Hmmmmmmmm ....... I know a lot about guns and don't see it as crazy and would rather a trained armed guard than an armed terrorist...... but I fly BA and they have neither :-))

It does look as though Concorde has reached the end of it's shelf life and guess we will not see it replaced - that's sad for everyone but guess it was always on the cards.

I don't find the experience of flying any different today than a while ago excepting a slightly more stringent security check - got frisked myself the other day when I had forgotten about my mobile. Made me feel safe rather than nuts :-))



ains

Currently I hold my quarter unit long term holding and will be looking to reinvest recent profits. It's clear BA management have the situation under control and will cut the cloth accordingly

ains



BA fastens seatbelts for war
By Alistair Osborne, Associate City Editor (Filed: 26/03/2003) telegraph


British Airways will announce today that it is cutting flights, postponing the launch of new services and accelerating job cuts in response to the Iraq war.

The airline, which has spent the past few days monitoring the impact of the war on passenger traffic, plans to cut the number of seats flown by up to 5pc. It has already suspended flights to Kuwait and Tel Aviv.

BA will also say that it is accelerating 13,000 job cuts, though it does not envisage making more staff redundant. As part of its plan to cut 650m of annual costs by next March, it is cutting 10,000 jobs by the end of the month and a further 3,000 over the following year. All the jobs will now go by the autumn.

The brunt of the capacity cuts will come on BA's most profitable transatlantic routes, which contributed 144m operating profits last year when the airline made a 110m operating loss.

BA is expected to cut its six daily flights between Heathrow and New York to five, excluding Concorde services. It has quietly been cancelling some services to New York since the conflict began.

The airline will also delay the introduction of extra services to four North American destinations which were planned to start as part of the summer schedule beginning next Monday.

Plans to add seven weekly flights between Heathrow and Chicago and five between Heathrow and Newark and additional services to Toronto and Houston will be postponed until the impact of the war becomes clearer.

The capacity cuts are lower than those introduced by rival carriers, partly because BA has already reduced seats flown by about a fifth over the past two years. American carriers Delta and Northwest have both cut flying schedules by 12pc in response to the war, with Northwest also cutting 4,900 jobs.

The troubled American Airlines is cutting international flights by 6pc, while United Airlines, which is teetering on the brink after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, is reducing schedules by 8pc and putting some staff on temporary unpaid leave.

A spokesman for BA would only say: "We will put out an announcement shortly once we have assessed the early impact of the war."

Chris Avery, aviation analyst at JP Morgan, said BA was "not panicking but being prudent. If you are doing seven or eight flights a day London to New York at the moment, it's pretty excessive". BA shares rose 3.5 to 122p.

Morning ains, well as I said before, the City won`t like the war going on and 4% of the fleet being grounded, so as I am short, that means I think they will fall ains, if your long, like you , you think that your `quarter unit ` will go up,
So they are down nearly 4% today ains ,and I am well chuffed,

DAVE

You shorted at 109p and below - currently 118p ....... you chuff easily

Ah, yes ains, but the war has only started, as Winston said, "THIS IS ONLY THE END OF THE BEGINNING". I`m short in a small way ains, I couldn`t afford a `quarter unit` like you obviously,


DAVE

yes ...... I can tell you are short - the share price is moving up :-))




LONDON (AFX) - John Rishton, British Airways PLC's chief financial officer, said by speeding up the job cutting element of the flag carrier's efficiency programme, BA will manage to reduce costs by an annualized 650 mln stg before the previously set target of March 2004.
BA today announced plans to implement a reduced flying programme and an acceleration of its Future Size and Shape programme in a bid to limit the impact of the war in Iraq on its business.

The airline had already announced plans to cut 13,000 jobs by March 2004 and today said this target will be brought forward to September this year.

Rishton emphasised that bringing forward this target did not imply that the cost savings target will be achieved in September as well, "but clearly with the manpower reduction being pulled ahead we will be achieving it sooner than we expected."

Speaking to reporters in a conference call after the airline detailed plans to reduce flights and speed up its redundancy programme, Rishton said the group has not changed its overall targets.

It is "too early to give forward looking snapshots. Forecasting is very difficult at the moment: The war (in Iraq) is less than a week old," he said.

Rishton did, however, point out that BA hopes the peak summer season will mean a return to "business as usual".

All the measures announced today, he explained, merely represent a "fine-tuning" of previously announced plans.

"What we've done is taken some prudent action such as fine tuning our schedule for April and May and we'll review anything beyond that time as the situation unfolds."

Chief executive Rod Eddington warned that there are "clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times."

"We are still assessing the impact on passenger demand but the industry has been feeling the effects of war for some weeks now. However, we are in good shape with more than 2 bln stg in cash and committed facilities available and we will survive this conflict," said Eddington in a statement.

Capacity on the North Atlantic will be cut by 6 pct and to the Middle East by 26 pct, resulting in an overall capacity cut of 4 pct.

The airline is also reviewing its capex and external spend plans, but Rishton said BA, which is due to take delivery of three A320 Aibus aircraft in the next financial year, has "the financing in place for all of those aircraft."

The European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co NV owns 80 pct of Airbus and UK defence giant BAE Systems PLC holds 20 pct in the European aircraft maker.

At 9.00 am, shares in BA were down 2-1/4 pence at 1193/4 pence, while the wider FTSE100 index was up 5.6 points at 3767.6 points.

anna.boekstegen@afxnews.com

pleased to see someone agrees with me :-))


``They are taking appropriate action in order to stem losses and conserve cash,'' said BNP Paribas analyst Nick van den Brul, who rates the stock ``neutral.'' ``It shows positive management.''






03/26 11:37
BA Accelerates Job Cuts, Reduces Flights on Iraq War (Update5)
By James Regan


London, March 26 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc, Europe's biggest airline, will accelerate job reductions and cut flights to trim costs as the war in Iraq crimps demand for air travel.

The airline said it will eliminate another 3,000 jobs by this September instead of by next March as previously planned. It will also review capital expenditures and other costs to preserve cash. British Airways shares fell as much as 4.1 percent.

``They are taking appropriate action in order to stem losses and conserve cash,'' said BNP Paribas analyst Nick van den Brul, who rates the stock ``neutral.'' ``It shows positive management.''

The International Air Transport Association has said global airline losses may widen by $10 billion because of the war. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, AMR Corp. American Airline and other carriers also have reduced flights to cut costs.

``There are clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times,'' said British Airways Chief Executive Rod Eddington in a Regulatory News Service statement. ``We are in good shape with more than 2 billion pounds ($3.1 billion) in cash and committed facilities available and we will survive this conflict.''

British Airways shares fell as much as 5 pence to 117p and were down 2.9 percent to 118.5p at 11:24 a.m. in London.

U.S. airlines, which lost a record $11.3 billion last year, will get government aid to contend with the conflict-related slump, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said yesterday.

Government Aid

The European Commission said it may permit carriers such as British Airways and Lufthansa to draw on government-backed war-risk insurance and keep unused takeoff and landing slots.

British Airways has reduced capacity by 20 percent in the last two years and cut its workforce by about 10,000. In the last two weeks, the airline has scaled back flights to the Middle East.

Finance Director John Rishton said on a conference call the carrier expects to achieve cost savings of 650 million pounds earlier than its target date of March 2004.

The carrier today said it will reduce capacity on North Atlantic flights by 6 percent. It will suspend one of its seven daily return services between London Heathrow Airport and New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport until the end of May.

It will also cut one of its two daily return services between Heathrow and Chicago until April 8. It will also delay the introduction of extra services between Heathrow and Newark Airport, Heathrow and Toronto and between London Gatwick Airport and Houston.

The company expects to use Boeing Co. 777 aircraft instead of its larger Boeing 747 planes to serve Bahrain and Philadelphia.

Capacity Cuts

British Airways has cut capacity by 26 percent on routes to the Middle East because of the conflict in Iraq. This includes a reduction in Dubai services and the suspension of Kuwait services. The airline said it will resume a daily service to Tel Aviv on March 28.

The airline declined to say how much sales have fallen because of the war.

The cost of insurance against a default by British Airways has risen 58 percent this year. Using credit-default swaps, contracts designed to transfer the risk of owning bonds and loans, it costs about $950,000 a year to insure $10 million of BA debt for five years, according to Morgan Stanley prices on Bloomberg. The cost is up from $900,000 yesterday and $600,000 on Dec. 31.

Northwest Airlines Corp. and partner KLM Royal Dutch Airlines NV have trimmed some trans-Atlantic flights. AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, is considering a reduction in international flights.

ains,I think we are looking at a different share BAY, that is British Airways is not up but down, down by 3.7% mid., I told you to let the others help out with the project, take a lie down before it`s too late,stress is a nasty illness.

Merrill Lynch reiterated its 'buy' advice on the stock, arguing that, in the context of the current market environment, "the dynamics of the BA investment case may not put the stock on everyone's radar screen for now. Nonetheless we remain of the view that BA will survive the current crisis and ultimately could be a beneficiary of the more consolidated industry, which might emerge." Merrill Lynch analysts are not reviewing their forecasts as yet, since the market situation is insufficiently clear and it will require an indication of the likely duration of the reduced capacity to provide any accurate quantification. "Suffice to say it is indicative of more challenging operating climate and thus the risks to estimates remains on the downside in the near term," they wrote in a note released after BA's announcement this morning.

In a statement released this morning, BA chief executive Rod Eddington commented that "there are clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times." "We are still assessing the impact on passenger demand but the industry has been feeling the effects of war for some weeks now. However, we are in good shape with more than 2 bln stg in cash and committed facilities available and we will survive this conflict," said Eddington. The airline said it plans to cut capacity by 4% in April and May and said it is accelerating its 13,000 manpower reduction target from March 2004 to Sept 2003, as well as extending the unpaid leave scheme for staff and reviewing all capex and external spend.

This looks interesting - I do hate the waiting around


ains






March 27, 2003

BA's London City debut offers new European option
By Malcolm Ginsberg TIMES



THERE will be an unprecedented choice of flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Glasgow for business travellers in London and the South East when British Airways begins operations from London City airport this weekend.
After spurning the Docklands runway for more than 15 years, BA plans to offer competitive fares rather than the business class rates traditionally associated with the airport.

BAs action means that the three prime European business destinations can now be reached from all five London airports City, Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton and all for less than 65 return (see box below).

The bold expansion at London City comes as BA is facing a slump in business traffic. Premium passenger numbers fell 14 per cent in February compared with the same month last year. Yesterday, BA also announced a further 4 per cent reduction in capacity in April and May, primarily on transatlantic routes.

London City has considerable advantages for those working in the City and it will be possible for businessmen, and those living in Central, East and South East London, to board an aircraft within an hour of leaving office or home.

With BA continuing to operate from Heathrow and Gatwick, an executive working in Canary Wharf who lives in Sussex will, for example, be able to depart from City and return to Gatwick for the same price as a London City return flight.

Passing through the Docklands airport is extremely quick, with check-in times as short as ten minutes and only a few yards to walk from the main hall to passport control and the departure lounge.

There is the added advantage of the valet parking service for 20 a day; drop off the car and it is less than two minutes to the check-in desk. The service is also available for incoming flights phone ahead and the car will be waiting.

At Heathrow it takes an average of 45 minutes to get through the formalities, and the journey out to the airport can be lengthy unless you live near Paddington to catch the Heathrow Express rail link. But Heathrow does have the biggest choice of flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Glasgow.

For many, Luton is the least convenient airport but it does offer the cheapest fares on easyJet routes to Paris and Glasgow. The airline also flies to Glasgow from Stansted.

FARES

Return to Paris, Charles de Gaulle (overnight midweek trip, booked three weeks ahead):


From London City:


64 (projected) with British Airways;
192 (current) with Air France

From Heathrow:

64 with British Airways; 62 with Air France

From Gatwick:


64 with British Airways

From Stansted:


60 with Buzz

From Luton

40 with easyjet


PARKING

Rates for 24 hours:


London City: 20 in executive car park, with free valet parking; 16 in main car park

Heathrow: 13.50 in long-term; 36.80 in short-term

Gatwick: 7.40 long-term; 16.70 short-term

Stansted: 10 in mid-stay; 15 in short-term

Luton: 12 in executive car park

* Long-term at Stansted is miles from the airport and at Luton is only available for stays of five days or longer. Advance booking discounts are available. Many hotels near the airports offer parking and accommodation deals.

March 27, 2003

BA cuts flights to save cash
By Russell Hotten



BRITISH AIRWAYS said yesterday that it is to accelerate plans for 3,000 job cuts and reduce capacity on its most important routesby 6 per cent.
The airlines chief executive, Rod Eddington, said BA had hit tough times and that conserving cash was now critical if the company was to survive the current crisis.

BA, which has shed 10,000 jobs since the September 11 terrorist attacks in America plunged the industry into recession, intended to cut another 3,000 by March next year. This is being brought forward to September.

The airline said there will be no compulsory redundancies, and that the losses can be achieved by natural turnover, reductions in overtime and unpaid leave for staff.

An overall cut in capacity of 4 per cent will be made in April and May, involving reduced frequencies and the use of smaller aircraft.

The 6 per cent capacity cuts in high-margin services to North America underlines concerns about the impact of war on customer and business confidence. Changes include suspending one of two daily London-Chicago flights and one of seven daily London-New York services.

BA said it would continue its suspension of flights to Kuwait and would reduce frequencies to Dubai, but that it would restore flights to Tel Aviv on Friday with a single daily service.

About 20 per cent of BAs capacity has already been taken out in the past two years, and these latest cuts are not as deep as other major European and American carriers.

Mr Eddington said: There are clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times. We have had the opportunity to plan our response on this occasion and go into this downturn a leaner, fitter company.

BA has 1.8 billion in cash and 400 million in committed facilities, a cushion that analysts said put the airline in better financial health than some of its long-haul peers.

Amanda Forsyth, fund manager at Standard Life, which owns 2.4 per cent of the airline, said that by halting investment in new aircraft last year, BA had been able to store up cash.

That BA has been cash-flow positive for many months is stunning, she said. The company has already taken great swaths of capacity out of the network, and this puts BA in a strong position for when confidence returns.

In a research note, Merrill Lynch said that BA shares were a long-term buy, arguing that the airlines prudent cost-cutting meant it would do well after war was over.

BA forecast last week that it was still expecting to report a profit for this financial year. However, BAs debt is currently rated as junk, or below investment grade. The credit rating agencies Moodys and Standard & Poors each said last week that they may downgrade BAs credit rating.

Meanwhile, Air France said yesterday that it would cut capacity by 7 per cent by reducing services, but would maintain at least some flights to all its destinations.

The carrier said: In view of the deteriorating economic situation caused by the Middle East crisis, Air France is no longer certain of meeting its target of a higher operating income than last year.

The airline said its current plans assumed a gradual return to normal market conditions, similar to the trends seen after the first Gulf war and after the September 11 attacks in the United States.

In a few words rather than a million. BA is a short at the moment.

F

pity you are unable to trade then fugitive :-))


By Yvette Essen telegraph
(Filed: 29/03/2003)


War's shock waves hit airlines

Worries about a prolonged war created turbulence for airlines British Airways and Easyjet yesterday. They were among the leading FTSE 250 casualties, shedding 4 to 108.5p and 11.25 to 227.75p respectively.

BA, which has suspended flights to Kuwait and reduced services to Tel Aviv, Dubai and New York, was also rattled by a profits warning from Australia's Quantas, in which it holds an 18pc stake.

JP Morgan said it now expected BA to post a pre-tax loss of 100m for the year to March 2004, down from an estimated 25m profit. BA will post passenger traffic figures for March on Thursday.

Traders also noted that Easyjet is now running a one-week offer in which it will pay for UK government taxes on all flights. They said the promotion is an indication that people need encouragement to fly. Easyjet announces its traffic figures for this month on April 7.

Continued worries about a drawn-out war also rattled the wider market as the benchmark FTSE 100 slipped in early dealings. The leading index ended the day 20.6 lighter at 3708.5 - down 152.6 points, or 4pc on the week. As London closed, the Dow Jones had lost 13 points.

Property group Canary Wharf was the main blue-chip riser, recovering from its recent battering. It improved 5.25 to 151p - picking up from its all-time low.

Investors reacted positively to news that high-street retailer Marks & Spencer, 3 better at 289.25p, is launching a new menswear range in September. The clothing will be aimed at men over 35 years.

Next advanced 20.5 to 855.5p as Deutsche Bank upgraded the clothing store from hold to buy and upped its price target by 50p to 950p after its final results.

Outsourcing group Capita edged up 2.75 to 250.75p as it was given the green light to administer the second-largest pension scheme in the country. The contract with the Department for Education and Skills covers 1.4m members and is worth 62m over seven years.

Financials were once again out of favour. Friends Provident gave up 2.25 to 80.75p, Aviva shed 7.75 to 379.25p and Prudential eased 6.5 to 333p. Lloyds TSB dropped 6.5 to 333.5p and Alliance & Leicester went down 25 to 784p.

Mining stocks were under pressure as ABN Amro downgraded Anglo American, 28 lighter at 917p, and second-tier stock Lonmin, down 26.5 to 685p, from hold to reduce. The broker said it was worried about investing in companies with South African exposure.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 slipped 0.8 to 4016.3, down 79.3 or 2pc on the week. SkyePharma was the leading second-tier riser, advancing ahead of the pharmaceutical company's full-year results on Wednesday. Merrill Lynch reiterated its buy rating, saying it expects a modest profit for 2002. It climbed 4.5 to 47.25p.

Selfridges was lifted 8.5 to 242p on traders' gossip that Icelandic retailer Baugur is hoping to raise its 1pc stake in the department store.

Construction services group Carillion fell 9 to 121p on fears Network Rail will cancel further maintenance deals.

Elsewhere, London Forfaiting climbed 5 to 22.75p as the trade finance organisation crept back in the black, posting a pre-tax profit of 1.2m for 2002, up from a loss of 8.6m the previous year. Chairman Jack Wilson warned: "The Forfaiting trading environment in the current year does not differ markedly from that which persisted in 2002."

Civilian Content, the financer and distributor of films such as Michael Winterbottom's In This World, rose 0.50 to 2.37p. Crispin Barker, who moved from non-executive director to non-executive chairman on Thursday, bought 1m shares at 1.9p per share, increasing his holding to 25.4pc.

Devro, the sausage-skin maker, was .5 lighter at 59.5p, despite traders' chatter that Swiss investment vehicle Acomita is considering using its 14pc stake in the group to bid for the rest of the shares. They reckon Acomita is willing to pay up to 75p per share.

On Aim, Osborne & Little picked up from its 1993 low as the fabric and wallpaper company revealed it was in talks with certain directors interested in taking over the group. Bid hopes bumped the shares up 7.5 to 192.5p and more than offset the news that Osborne expects to make a pre-tax loss of about 200,000 for the year ending March 31.

Empire Interactive, the computer games developer and publisher, ticked up 0.62p to 3.62p as traders gossiped chairman Sir Rodney Walker had purchased 1m shares at 3.5p each, taking his stake in the company up to 1.2m shares.

LOL@AINSOPH - what a flake!!!

little "a",

thought it was Quantas that knocked it yesterday? But who cares, tis all the same at the moment. I can trade (rather well).

F

big F and little c

you seem to have more names than shares Fugitive ..... still on the run from your broker?

More names than BA shares - I won't deny it! ;-)))

However, I only have one name on the lower house.

Care to explain why I am on the run from my broker?

F

Not for me to explain your failings .... but clearly anyone who spends so much time slagging peeps as their sole means of researching a company is unlikely to be successful ...... as you already know :-))



Shares are coming back into range as talk of terrorism increases - and war success is delayed

ains





City Airport debuts for BA, Virgin
Robert Lea, Evening Standard 31 March 2003

RITISH Airways and Virgin Express are opening up another front in the bid to win back business travellers by today launching services for the first time from City Airport in Docklands.





BA is starting routes to the business centres of Paris and Frankfurt with plans in May to tap the burgeoning London-Scottish routes by opening up services to Glasgow.


Virgin Express, which has been out of the London market since losing its slots at Heathrow last autumn, is opening services to its Brussels base.


The carriers' decisions bolster City Airport's plans to more than double passenger numbers from the current 1.6m - stalled by the downturn in business travel - to four million by 2010 and to double that again to eight million by 2030.


The airport, though Britain's 10th busiest, is restricted in growth by the size of the aircraft it can handle as the runway is not long enough to take Boeing 737s, the 150-seater workhorse jetliners of the budget airlines.

ainsoph,

you plonker, why do you post this dross? Are you aware of what is happening to American Airlines/the tourist industry in general? Anyone would think from your posts that BA. is a buy. Buy it now you just hand your money to the shorters.

I am looking to buy BA. (if they survive), Lufthansa and TUI for the long term - but there's no hurry. Short in the meantime.

F