NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

Eric,

Ok thanks, have done.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=saurimo

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Saurimo.forecast.shtml

Thanks, Andy. Seems to have been heavy rain in most areas with thunderstorms to come! Which town is Rio Lapi nearest to? Do we know how critical the rains are in relation to the use of their earth-moving equipment?

Eric

There was a fascinating programme on TV recently - one of the cable doco channels about heavy mining earth-moving equipment (yes, I know sad life, but at keast it didn't rhyme).

I imagine the rainy season causes a fine slurry to form in which these machines just can't function, let alone the megaton dumper trucks ferrying ore from cutting face to plant.

It is a concern which we need to watch.

SD

Eric,

I use Suarimo as the refernece point, which is around 30 miles away I believe, so the weather may vary a little from the forecast that we can see, although the company have yet to confirm mining has coimmenced, so I imagine the weather has not abated yet.

Shane Healy (FD) is in London this week, so maybe news later this week?

I still think they will raise more money, via loan or placing.

Andy

Back in October NML had arranged $2.85m of funds availability or about 1.5m. They said that they expected to be cash flow positive early in 2005 which seems optimistic. If they are looking for funds by a placement they will need the price to move higher first. That would, no doubt, be achieved by a positive report on production and achievement of the sample figure. This would also minimise the dilution of equity. Recent cases of a placing immediately following a price hike are SEO and GMC - pretty obvious really. It does seem likely that Healy's visit is associated with fund-raising. I assume the last tranche was raised in the US. My prediction is that (a) he talks the sp up; (b) this is quickly followed by a placing with London institutions. Do others agree because it would indicate a buying opportunity now?

Eric

Buying at 6p offer can't be a bad move - I doubt it will go lower, unless there is bad news, like "we haven't started yet". Not sure what Healey can do to pump up the price. Since they would be going back for more after promising cash positive by early 2005, it may that he's placing at the current price with a promise to ramp it up afterwards to make the placees happy.

Haven't checked their burn rate, but it must be peaking with all the gear and crew ready and waiting for the off as soon as the sun shines.

NML on my top up list, funds willing.

SD

SD you should not have said those words about NML not going lower than 6p...what did you do??? Bad Dog! Lots about this share on the other side. SH has been in London this week and everyone was hoping for good news. Apparently last time he came to London the price dropped too. SH stay in Africa PLeaseeeeeeeeeee. I was tempted to buy more at a lower price but I am already overweight so I thought it would be dangerous. Little selling so the chances are it will go back up next week I hope Gulp!!!All this will be of no consequence once mining starts and lots of 'a girls best friends' are found. How do you do an anti rain dance???
Di

Di don't want to be mean but are you sure your dancing will help? :)

Sorry for bringing bad karma on the SP, or was it SH himself crossing the equator without doing the correct dance?

Since I want to top up to a fuller position on this one, it could be a good opportunity, but a) I've been out all day soo missed the fun till Monday and b) it is a bit of a nasty spike down to its January low of 4.5p for no apparent reason, albeit low volume and no single heavyweight sell.

Perhaps, an extension of my above theory - the MMs are deliverately marking the price down in preparation for a giveaway placing for more cash because they can't get started until you start dancing.

Zummat's agoin' on - I can feel it in me waters.

Re-reading the latest releases from their website, they should have started production in late Feb after shipping 40ton excavator and 2 X 25 ton dump trucks from S Africa to Angola (did they ever arrive?), so now a month of expectation, not to mention cash burn, behind the game. Has SH been summoned to explain himself to the city? Has a leak from that meeting found its way to the MMs bracing for a big sell off?

On the other hand, have the longer lasting rains (as per Andy's info above) washed all the diamonds away. Will the $112 operating profit per carat of the 3.7 milllion estimated and 8.7m potential carats be reduced or diminished by a month or two's delay - I doubt it. But a cost of capital effect will occur with the delay.

If no news next week, a concerted round of emails to the directors to find out what is going on would be in order I feel.

Should I buy or should I sell.
My heart says buy, but my head says, well,
Wait and see. But in the end
A diamond is a girl's best friend.

from the desk of the Dog Laureate

Stockdog,

The excavator and two dump trucks are due onsite this coming Sunday.

My take is that SH is here to do a fundraising exercise, either a placing or convertible loan, time will tell if I'm correct.

They have pretty much confirmed that the weather is still hampering their operations, so maybe an April start is now on the cards?

Their first objective is to fulfil the 5000 carat obligatory parcel for Endiama, prior to their mining licence being granted by the Angolan govt.

I will not invest unless either the price tanks due to a placing, or confirmation that the mining permit has been granted. I may miss a few percent, but I will also eliminate some of the risk in the process IMHO.

Thanks, Andy. Where did you get info on trucks arrival?

Is there a time limit on the first 5000 carats for Endiama when they might lose the option on the licence?

Your entry strategy seems wise. I shall probably apply it to my top up ambitions.

SD

Blimey, Di, you'd better start dancing after all before the SP gets washed away entirely in the rains.

It's like the old limbo dance - how low can you go! Comdirect shows it marled down to 3.5p bid on closing. But the offer is still up at 5p cheeky buggers.

What's brought this universal decline on, then? Everything apart from some oils and goo old DFD and PGI are suffering. I'm down about 10% across the board.

SD

Poor SD ...It is a case of grin and bear it and the bid is still 4p I checked on level 2. The rain should stop soon and then NML will wipe out your 10% loss I am sure. All the penny shares are down including all the mining stocks; even KMR went down a bit. Things will look different after Easter.:-)

I wish it was just 10% on NML - more like 27% given the large spread - the 10% was average across all my holdings over just the last week.

Big grin :DD

SD

I realise that SD same here but I meant that NML will wipe out your 10% portfolio loss once the rain stops...then it will be a BIG grin :-)

Thanks - has this general drop in he market got further to go, or is now a good time to average down on some of my fundamentally sound losers, do you think? e.g. ARX (disappointing finals today - slower sales) CFP, EUM, NML, SVR, VTI.

SD

Difficult to say SD.. I got out of VTI at 29p when it started to drop and just kept HYR. If I had cash spare I would buy more NML except I am overweight and the last lot were at 5.9p :-( .Still if it takes off as I think 5.9p will not matter. I'm kicking myself cos' everytime this holiday dip takes place I mean to keep spare money to take advantage; yet again I don't have any.We had the same last Christmas.If I had the money I would average down on those that have the potential for big rises DYOR etc.
Di

I reckon big grins from dogs are really grimaces! Just checking up on the market during hols. Key point is that the market has been indisctriminate in marking stocks down. As Di says, it would be good to have spare lolly at teh monet to take advantage. But another point is that there is no harm in taking a loss where you have lost confidence in the growth prospects and have more confidence elsewhere. Most surprising thing is to see the lacklustre response to the SEO news so there is a realy major upside potential, although with a relatively high cap. starting point. NML and CFP are such low caps thatfigures confirming positive cash flow in the next year are bound to result in multiple-baggers. Now dogs love those. Jacob, my grandson, has this super book on Kipper which has an important lesson - stick to what you know and love the best! - in his case his basket and smelly blanket!

Eric

Hi eric, how's hols - wish I was on one too!

I've taken the plunge on ARX with a little spare cash I've dug up as the best bet. EUM, NML too speculative still for more from me yet. CFP hasn't actually moved down with the general market - showing its strength but not a buying op.

Thanks for both your advice (my two favourite posters!) In the end you've inspired me to MUMOM. See you all after the Easter break.

:)

SD

SD what's MUMOM????? You can lick my feet when you meet me on Traders Day :-)

make up your own mind what it means!