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Venture Production (Cheapest of the North Sea Oil E&P'rs) (VPC)     

brianboru - 05 Mar 2005 17:17

Here's what KBC had to say about them.

http://www.kbcpeelhunt.com/pdfs/Oil04Mar05.pdf

Venture is by a margin the cheapest of the North Sea focused E&P
companies in terms of its forward cash flow multiple. With key new
gas field development seeming to be on track, the production base
will get not only an anticipated strong addition from March but will
also derive improved asset diversity. The company has so far
significantly under-delivered in financial terms and improved market
confidence and rising profitability could make this a strong
performer in 2005.
While Venture has generally managed its primary North Sea
production and development business competently, and field
performance, with the exception of Sycamore, has been up to
expectations, the financial performance has been undermined by
events. However, delivery of the key new field developments seems
to be on track and the company should more than double production
capacity to over 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 2005
and should achieve on average at least 30,000 boe/d in the year.
The misfortunes continued on Sycamore, with an injector well
apparently not communicating with the intended reservoir section.
This caused the company to reduce 2005 production guidance by
about 1,500 b/d to 31.0-33.0 kboe/d.
The development programme under way continues through 2006
giving a further year or two of growth in the production profile from
within the existing reserve inventory. The company therefore has
time to seek further development opportunities either within its
existing licences or by acquiring or licensing new assets.
The stock is trading close to our Core NAV estimate but is on a lower
prospective multiple of earnings (2005 PE of 7) and cash flow (P:CF
of 2.3) than any other E&P stock. The appointment of a new FD
relieves CEO Mike Wagstaff of his multiple responsibilities, which
should improve confidence in delivery.
With 50% of estimated production in 2005-2008 in the form of natural
gas, Venture offers direct exposure to the UK gas price. Moreover,
the reliability issues that have dogged the company have been in its
oil rather than gas operations.

graph.php?movingAverageString=%2C50%2C20

mitzy - 13 Jul 2009 10:34 - 233 of 241

up 5% this am but short of 845p.

marni - 13 Jul 2009 10:56 - 234 of 241

no way will venture accept.........anyway sp doesnt go to takeover price immediately for anyone with experience on these matters.
sp should go down eventually after centica trying to steal venture on the cheap.

cynic - 13 Jul 2009 11:14 - 235 of 241

assuming Centrica make something approaching an acceptable bid, expect a discount to that of +/-10% which allows for time element + risk factor

very very heavy volumes today - 6.5m at time writing

mitzy - 22 Jul 2009 08:52 - 236 of 241

Still short of 845p I'm not selling.

cynic - 22 Jul 2009 09:00 - 237 of 241

not necessarily very bright.
sp will remain below 845 until the deal is done, if it actually is.
with the disappointing drilling result, VPC have had their trump card turned over

mitzy - 22 Jul 2009 09:48 - 238 of 241

I've held for 3 years now so another few weeks wont hurt me.

cynic - 22 Jul 2009 09:56 - 239 of 241

it will if VPC turn down Centrica's offer ..... if that happens, then sp looks to drop back to +/-600 ..... and you're hanging on for an extra 15p? ...... doesn't sound good risk/reward to me

mitzy - 22 Jul 2009 10:06 - 240 of 241

I'm not to worried had Rift take-over the other month and now VPC which is undervalued by Centrica's low offer.

cynic - 22 Jul 2009 10:17 - 241 of 241

how often does one need to say that the true value of anything is only what somewone is prepared to pay?]
anyway, you money, your risk but never forget that far more money is lost by greed than by banking profits too early
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