< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Merrill Lynch comment:
"AFREN: announced the significant success at the Ogo-1 exploration well in OPL 310 offshore Nigeria and, as a result, we expect consensus NAVs to move up c.5-10p+. While we value the well at a risked 4p (unrisked 12p), results thus far indicate that resources are likely to increase significantly from predrill net P50 prospective resources of c.31mmboe, although they cannot be quantified as yet. Moreover, the result also de-risks the Ogo-1 sidetrack from a c.20% Chance of Success (CoS) to a c.33% CoS, where a result is expected by the end of July, and which we valued pre-drill at an additional risked 4p (unrisked 19p). Arguably most importantly, this well result proves the extension of the Cretaceous play across the West African Transform Margin and is the first well to do so south of Lagos; this is a key milestone for the industry. Volumes already appear to indicate that Ogo-1 is commercially viable as a stand-alone development and its potential development will be fast-tracked in the same way as Afren's other projects. We reiterate our Buy rating and expect the stock to be up 5-10% today."

Meanwhile, the new oil discovery made offshore Nigeria by Afren (LON:AFR) and LekOil (LON:LEK) has substantially exceeded expectations, according to Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Jamie Maddock also says the success of the Ogo-1 well has extended the prolific 'West African Transform Margin' eastwards, and this has thrown up more opportunties for drilling in the area. "Stay overweight" in Afren he says with a target price of 220p (current 122p)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/directors-to-acquire-afren-shares/201307050700076648I/

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2362088/Reckitt-Benckiser-shareholders-1-8bn-wiped-value.html#ixzz2YsBPplX5


Afren, its top pick, rose 2.9p to 137.5p. Gulf Keystone, which Goldmans believes to be a particularly attractive takeover target, gained 10.75p to 176.25p. Its 12-month target price for GK is 265p.

Friday 23 August

Friday will see first-half results from oil and gas company Afren (AFR).

Analysts' expectations: "Following a strong first quarter and no apparent hiccups in the second quarter, we expect a strong operational and commensurately solid financial performance from the first-half results," comments Brian Gallagher, an analyst at Investec.

He forecasts revenue of $716 million (£459.5 million), post-tax cashflow of $410 million and post-tax profit of $105 million as Afren is "riding a tailwind from the Ogo vertical, its pending sidetrack and building regional momentum in Kurdistan". Gallagher is bullish on the stock, rating it a 'buy'.

Valuation: Afren trades on a 2014 EV/EBITDA ratio of three times.

Friday 23 August

Friday will see first-half results from oil and gas company Afren (AFR).

Analysts' expectations: "Following a strong first quarter and no apparent hiccups in the second quarter, we expect a strong operational and commensurately solid financial performance from the first-half results," comments Brian Gallagher, an analyst at Investec.

He forecasts revenue of $716 million (£459.5 million), post-tax cashflow of $410 million and post-tax profit of $105 million as Afren is "riding a tailwind from the Ogo vertical, its pending sidetrack and building regional momentum in Kurdistan". Gallagher is bullish on the stock, rating it a 'buy'.

Valuation: Afren trades on a 2014 EV/EBITDA ratio of three times.

Cheers Cyril. Missed that.Was only aware that earnings were due friday 23rd.

Thanks for the colour.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/


Key Highlights
· Strong operating cash flow driven by a 13 per cent. year-on-year increase in net production to 47,653 boepd; on track for full year guidance of 40,000 - 47,000 boepd

· Continued E&A success

- Play opening discovery at OPL 310, offshore Nigeria

- DST programme at Simrit-2 on the Ain Sifni PSC, Kurdistan region of Iraq complete, with aggregate flow rates of 19,641 bopd achieved. Well being prepared for Extended Well Test operations

- Completion of drilling at Simrit-3. Multi-zone testing programme underway to confirm the resource potential and the eastern extent of the Simrit anticline

- Active exploration programme with ongoing Ogo-1 sidetrack and upcoming Ufon-1 well on OML 115 in Nigeria

· Active portfolio management

- Completion of farm-out (subject to Nigerian Ministerial Consent) of a 30 per cent. economic interest in OPL 310, offshore Nigeria, to Lekoil Limited

- Acquisition by FHN of 16.9 per cent. economic interest in OML 113. Synergies expected with OPL 310 development

- Agreement for sale of CI-11 block and Lion Gas Plant for total consideration of US$26.5 million, of which US$15.3 million will be settled in cash

- Proposed relinquishment of JDZ Block 1, Nigeria São Tomé & Príncipe

· Strong balance sheet and financial flexibility

- Cash at bank US$588 million (1H 2012: US$497 million); Net debt, excluding finance leases US$590 million (1H 2012: US$679 million). Full year capex guidance revised to US$650 million from US$620 million

Commenting today, Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc, said:
"Afren continued to deliver strong operational results during the first half of 2013. We recorded a year-on-year increase in underlying net production of 13 per cent. principally from our green field developments offshore Nigeria. Our exploration campaign continues to deliver results, following the play opening discovery announced at OPL 310 offshore Nigeria, where further exploration drilling is ongoing. Elsewhere, we are continuing with exploration drilling and testing operations at the Ain Sifni PSC in Kurdistan. With high quality production underpinning both our strong financial position and exploration programme, we are well placed to realise numerous growth opportunities over the remainder of this year."

i thought AFR's figures were actually on the better side of OK, and that the fall in the sp this morning has more to do with "selling on the news" than anything else ..... thus, if i felt my holding was still a bit light, i would not be averse to topping up at this level

Cynic,

At the right price you can buy some of mine.

Not one of my cleverest buys.

AFR's figures weren't as good as hoped, I think, hence the fall:

"StockMarketWire.com

Afren posts pre-tax profits of $260m for the six months to the end of June - 16% down on last year's restated $311m.

Revenues were up 2% at $797m but gross profits fell by 8% to $377m."

Still holding. Profits down due to extra tax and company tidying up their portfolio. Management to buy in and then Kurdistan news expected this year. Tanzania next. Plus Nigeria production and exploration as the money maker. Brokers retaining their buy stance.
LTH

i have several lumps of AFR, and i see all are in profit except one that i bought in january which shows a small loss, so overall very happy even if this is no rocket (yet)

Canaccord Genuity, recommended a ‘buy’ rating for Afren after the oil explorer reported first half results ahead of the broker's expectations.
The analyst said production was 2% ahead of estimates, revenue was 5% higher and cashflow was in line.

typical brokers report
Canaccord Genuity cuts target price to 190p from 220p; rating buy

pretty boring atm no div what's in it for shareholders?

capital growth, which i'ld much rather have than divi .... and before you come back at me, my average price is 127 and my earliest tranche was bought in may '12 and last in july '13, so a very respectable return

Sorry wrong thread, cannot think why I put it here. :-))

cynic how much you have paid for your shares is rather irrelevant to investors, capital growth can only be achieved when AFR shares profits with its owners (shareholders), otherwise there is the suspicion that this company is being run for the benefit of its directors and management.

no one is compelling you or your buddies to buy ..... if one of your key criteria is yield, then that is fine, but it's not mine ..... as far as i am concerned, i am more than happy with my choice ..... i am comfortably in profit; sp continues to chug slowly north; there is a possibility verging on probability that AFR will be bought out within an arbitrary 2/3 years