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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 12:44 - 234 of 1009

Overgrowth, No I am fat and U and when I stand on a box quite tall. But I do hold about 300K of RTD. That is why my computer is near the toilet!!!!
But is does seem blue all round to-day.

8-)

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 12:48 - 235 of 1009

Thats the one that showed in red as a sale yesterday,overgrowth,its the one i was talking abt

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:54 - 236 of 1009

Don't know why it has been carried forward to today?

capetown - 08 Jul 2005 13:05 - 237 of 1009

but it was red sale yesterday,today its a black?,how does that work,you will have guessed i am newish to this,thx op

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 13:23 - 238 of 1009

The black just shows that the computer connot discern wether it is a buy or a sell.
Don't forget that large trades can be reported late and can look like either a buy or sell at that time based on the present bid/offer. Whereas in fact the trade if done earlier could have been opposite to the buy/sell recorded. Oh it does get complicated :-) hope that helps.

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 14:50 - 239 of 1009

Sellers come on the scene and the price ticks up!

Fundamentalist - 08 Jul 2005 15:29 - 240 of 1009

Fred :-)

Capetown - always bear in mind that sites like this classify whether is a sale or a buy based purely on whether it is closer to the bid or offer at the time it is released. This can at times be very misleading. NEVER rely on the buy/sell ratio as an indicator as it is often misleading - you will often see a trade reported as a sell 10 mins after a tick up that is clearly the buy that caused the tick up in the first place.

SP looks ok currently though volume is quite low. Personally wouldnt expect much movement prior to 1/2 yr results without any further announcements ie new contracts etc

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 19:38 - 241 of 1009

Fundy, when you have finished that bottle of white, why don't you expect much movement prior to results? I have a good hope that these are going to move much sooner and in the right direction. My view is based on TA and optimism, if I didn't have that view I wouldn't have bought into them :-)
Cheers
opto

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 23:59 - 242 of 1009

RTD Play their cards close to their chests. They are in the financial field and wish to keep themselves as clean as possible from false leading of the market. Their main announcements come at interims and finals with little hype.

Fundamentalist - 09 Jul 2005 09:11 - 243 of 1009

Opto

my personal thought is that there is nothing to drive them up prior to results - the trading statement was predictably muted (based on history). Cant see anything to drive the price up (unless new contracts are announced). Ultimately when half year figures are released it will become clearer whether the transaction growth is being effectively translated into greater turnover and profits. If this yrs growth is in line with broker forecasts then to me the share is fairly valued. I would expect the share to pick up later in the yr based on half yr results and then hopefully on a positive trading statement prior to xmas

optomistic - 09 Jul 2005 09:35 - 244 of 1009

Thanks Fundy, I'm still going for an early rise. First step mid 30's.

overgrowth - 11 Jul 2005 07:58 - 245 of 1009

Fundy - did you see the comment from scburb on advfn ?

A core growth rate of more than 22.6% at interims sounds excellent to me - i wonder why Carl Clump was understating these figures in the trading update...

"Just a quick note on the implications of the trading statement. The latest brokers forecasts I have are from Lewis Charles 15/6/05 with a target price of 37.5p.

These forecasts show eps 1.63p 2005 vs 1.58p 2004 (adjusted for IFRS). Interestingly they forecast 2005 EBITDA falling from 8.33m to 8.18m. The increase in eps which they show is primarily down to the removal of the 0.5m provided last year for the patent issue.

The likely reason for the slow eps growth in 2005 is due to the one-off PRISM sales achieved last year, eps growth accelerates with a forecast eps of 1.89p in 2006.

The trading statement tells us that the one-off PRISM profits have already been exceeded in the first half. The interims will show low growth at the PBT level due to this effect. PRISM sales contributed a one-off 0.4m (0.14p) to last years interim eps of 0.76p. Therefore, if interim PBT is static that represents core PBT growth of around 22.6% (0.76/0.62). RTD have indicated that interim PBT should be exceeded so growth rate should be slightly higher."

Fundamentalist - 11 Jul 2005 09:50 - 246 of 1009

Og

yes - i did read it last night and all makes sense, however to me the trading statement was as i expected quite downbeat (Clumpy always is at half year). The half yr results will be interesting to read as we dont know how far ahead of last yr the results are though im guessing very little based on the statement. I tend to agree that the full yr will be ahead of "current mkt expectations" though not as far ahead as most of the retail investors on the BBs are hoping for (happy to be proved wrong though). As i mentioned at last yrs results, there needs to be evidence that the strong growth in transactions is being translated into profit and as yet that evidence still doesnt exist. The other factor for me is too see whether the decline in CP has continued or has levelled out otherwise this will partially offset the growth in CNP.

overgrowth - 11 Jul 2005 10:19 - 247 of 1009

Fundy - Good point about CP revenue.

Do you happen to know off the top of your head approximately what percentage revenue comes from the 3 main lines of business i.e.

CP
CNP
Fuel Cards ?

Fundamentalist - 11 Jul 2005 11:06 - 248 of 1009

OG

The split as at 2004 results was:

Fuel Cards 44% (14.0m)
Card Not Present 31% (9.7m)
Card Present 20% (6.4m)
Consulting 5% (1.6m)


Fundamentalist - 11 Jul 2005 11:21 - 249 of 1009

OG

Looking at the same at Operating Profit level, the dependence on the fuel card business becomes more apparent (i have split the Op profit on the fraud side based on the gross profit numbers in the report)

Fuel Cards 92% (6.8m)
Card Not Present 11% (0.85m)
Card Present 9% (0.65m)
Consulting -3% (-0.2m)
Unallocated Costs -9% (-0.7m)

If you ignore the consulting and central costs then the pure split is:

Fuel cards 82%
Card Not Present 10%
Card Present 8%

overgrowth - 11 Jul 2005 11:37 - 250 of 1009

Cheers Fundy - it looks as the even if CP is declining slightly, it won't have much of an impact, however high oil prices for the rest of 2005 as analysts are predicting will really boost the fuel card income.

It looks as though RTD are not charging enough for the CNP transactions - I wonder if they are planning on price increases now they seem to be nicely in bed with a host of blue-chip co's.

Fundamentalist - 11 Jul 2005 12:05 - 251 of 1009

OG

with regard to the price of CNP transactions the info is not at all transparent - the revenue is obviously made up of one off payments and some transaction based charges but these are never disclosed - hence when new contracts are announced it is hard to evaluate the impact on results and whether RTD are getting a good deal out of some of these contracts

parveen1 - 13 Jul 2005 14:02 - 252 of 1009

aaaaaaaaaaaaaagggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

i hate this share

Fred1new - 13 Jul 2005 15:59 - 253 of 1009

There are other shares I hate more. Patience!!!! We need to send Douggie on holiday again!
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