< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

no one is compelling you or your buddies to buy ..... if one of your key criteria is yield, then that is fine, but it's not mine ..... as far as i am concerned, i am more than happy with my choice ..... i am comfortably in profit; sp continues to chug slowly north; there is a possibility verging on probability that AFR will be bought out within an arbitrary 2/3 years

Afren (LON:AFR)‘s stock had its “overweight” rating restated by Morgan Stanley in a research note issued on Friday,AnalystRatings.Net reports. They currently have a GBX 210 ($3.28) price target on the stock. Morgan Stanley’s target price would suggest a potential upside of 43.93% from the stock’s previous close.

Shares of Afren (LON:AFR) opened at 141.50 on Friday. Afren has a 52-week low of GBX 118.20 and a 52-week high of GBX 162.00. The stock’s 50-day moving average is GBX 45.44 and its 200-day moving average is GBX 73.13. The company’s market cap is £1.540 billion.

A number of other firms have also recently commented on AFR. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “underweight” rating on shares of Afren in a research note to investors on Wednesday. Separately, analysts at RBC Capital reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Afren in a research note to investors on Friday, August 16th. They now have a GBX 180 ($2.82) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Westhouse Securities reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Afren in a research note to investors on Wednesday, August 14th. They now have a GBX 160 ($2.50) price target on the stock.


Afren plc (LON:AFR) is engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production in Africa and the Kurdistan region of Iraq.One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have assigned a hold rating and seventeen have given a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock presently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of GBX 181.52 ($2.84).

Nice recovery from an initial disappointing reaction to the News...at one point Affers was down 5% - closed down marginally.I guess many were expecting Well news, of which there was little. High tax rate impinging on profits but all eyes on imminent well results.

Have a good bank holiday weekend all.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-investors-ditch-afren-over-lion-sale-8783157.html

Market Report: Investors ditch Afren over Lion sale

The price that African oil explorer Afren got for its Lion Gas plant failed to keep investors happy and they headed for the exit yesterday.

The mid-cap index-listed oil specialist sold off its Ivory Coast CI-11 block and Lion Gas plant for $26.5m (£17m), but analysts said the City was left disgruntled at the price.

Stephane Foucaud, an analyst at FirstEnergy, said the price was “a fraction of what it was purchased for in late 2008 and what the carry value was at $220m.

“It is almost $200m less than what we were expecting and we are usually on the low side of the consensus. For a £1.6bn market cap, this is quite material”.

Afren did report good production numbers but also revealed a 16 per cent fall in its first-half pre-tax profits to $260m (£167m).

The City reacted by flogging the company’s shares and they were the second-worst faller on the mid-tier table during the afternoon session.

However, they recovered some of their fall and closed the day down just 0.3p to 145.6p.

It seems that heavy taxation by the Nigerians is also having a negative effect,also any news being sparingly shared prompting comments it's to do with the following??
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----London, Friday 5th July 2013 - Afren plc ("Afren" or the "Company") announces that following the sale of all Afren PDMR holdings in First Hydrocarbon Nigeria ("FHN") to CSL Stockbrokers in Nigeria, they have undertaken to use the net proceeds to acquire Afren shares in the public markets.



The Afren Chairman and Executive Directors, together with certain other Afren PDMRs, have today entered into Sale and Purchase Agreements with CSL Stockbrokers for the sale of 11,819,085 shares in FHN (approximately 10 per cent. of the issued share capital of FHN) at a price of US$2.47 per share. Net proceeds will be used to acquire Afren shares in the public markets, following the expiry of the current H1 2013 close period, and undertake to hold the shares for a minimum of two years.

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From Investors Chronicle
By Matthew Allan,
27 August 2013
Oil production hike lifts Afren TIP UPDATE


Success with both the drill bit and the pump jack has helped Afren' s (AFR) share price climb near a two-year high - but we think there's more to come for the Africa-focused oil producer in the second half of the year and reiterate our buy advice.

From Mr Poshman on another bulletin board regards his views on Afren production

Nigeria prodution will be impacted by Ebok cost recovery which Osman stated close to the end of the Q&A will be achieved in early 2014. Now I'm sure this may be impacted by the expansion of the CFB toward the end of this year and therefore continual drilling, but my opinion is that Oriental will pay their way as they did with the NFB exploration well, so I expect Ebok to impact production downwards and why I think Osman decided against making any production indications for next year.

This will be partially offset by new wells linked to the CFB, I don't think this will be enough to offset the drop, but would like to know if they are starting to drill these wells prior to receipt of the extension, unfortunately no-one asked this question, just that this will be delivered towards the end of the year (October / November).

I think OML26 will show an uptick going into next year, rig apparantly coming over from a nearby block towards the end of the year also, I think it was stated October / November too. I assume that these wells will be fairly shallow and therefore quick, so I think these could start ramping up production but I doubt much above 10k bopd by the end of Q1 which would be somewhere around 4k bopd to Afren so essentially offsetting the loss of production from CIV.

I think Galib Virani stated that production from Okwok won't be completed until end 2015, so a bit of a longer timeframe to what we got at Okoro and Ebok.

Several of these developments all depend on the Nigerian govt actually working quickly and approving FDP's as we know that Okwok is being worked up, and the FEED is being worked up on Okoro, we probably won't get approval until Q2 2014 IMO so I can see why they are giving timescales for Okwok by end 2015.

Production will still be impacted by Okoro and Ebok, if they can ramp up Ebok production towards around 50k bopd by end Q1 then the impact on production in 2014 may not be impacted as much, as OML26 may replace some of this, but IMO excluding Barda Rash production (for the timebeing) I expect to see a reduction in NET production in 2014 due to cost recovery at Ebok, but I think GROSS production will be up, so I suspect between this reason (and Osman knows as much as anyone, that a poorly worded explanation would hit the share price) and the completion of the pipeline in Kurdistan and how localised sales go for the rest of this year, I think this is why Osman chose not to provide any production guidance for next year.

Hopefully, Barda Rash will produce enough to offset declines in Nigeria but we shall see.

Whats great about Afren is the pipeline of projects is excellent and this is what gives Afren such an advantage. Most of the pipeline of appraisal / development assets are in current Oil and Gas hubs so compared to someone like Tullow who have some very high risk assets that they are looking at developing and have huge value in their share price (IMO) and high amounts of capital tied up (Uganda particularly but also including Kenya and Namibia) I think Afrens appraisal / development assets (bar Kurdistan) are relatively low risk, particularly on the politial risk side.

I liked how they described OML26, this was a big issue for me, and I did expect them to provide some commentary around the upside here due to the additional investment Afren have put up in FHN, as they explained that this was similar to the Ebok field when they bought that and if you remember Ebok originally had guidance of around 25mbo which has been smashed. I think they were indicating that they see similar upside in OML26 with the exploration side. Femi deliberately stated that exploration was last performed on this clock back in the 60's so around 50 years ago with obviously much weaker technology than what exists now, so I hope to see big increases around this over the next few years too.

I like how they have been moving, a slow burner IMO, but a very strong share especially at this market cap

Afren, a U.K.-based oil and gas company focused on West Africa and Iraq, will increase output in Kurdistan once a pipeline export route to Turkey is completed by the end of this year.

“The pipeline is a positive step and we’ve agreed a tie-in,” Chief Executive Officer Osman Shahenshah said in a telephone interview. “The plan is to increase production substantially.”

Afren is selling 2,500 barrels of crude a day into the domestic market on trucks in the semi-autonomous northern Iraqi region, Shahenshah said. It maintained its guidance for full-year production for the whole company at 40,000 to 47,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

http://www.gulan-media.com/english/t_detail.php?section=1&id=43

Ethiopia.
Operator New Age plans to spud the El Kuran-3 well in early September 2013. The drilling programme is expected to last 45 days and will test the reservoir productivity in the Adigrat and Hamanlei zones, targeting 100 mmbbls of gross prospective resources. Previous drilling on the block at the El Kuran-1 identified gas shows in the Adigrat and a potential oil zone in the Hamanlei.
Afren has a 30% working interest.

Little known information I think -
Madagascar was a French colony and has spent most of the last 100 years in political turmoil - having flurted with Socialism and Army coups etc etc. Democratic elections are planned for 25 October this year, i.e. next month. They have been delayed three times already as a result of ex presidents now barred and ex wife's of presidents now barred. It seems the place is a bit of a basket case most of the time ?????

If the elections planned for 25 October go ahead, then it may be good news for Afren as they have a large on shore license area, already surveyed and ready to drill, I understand. Heavy oil has already been found in Madagascar - refer MOIL, but other serious drilling has not happened for many years, when drilling technology was much less than today.

Sterling Energy ( SEY ), ( yes I have talked about it before and have shares in it )
SEY has two massive offshore Madagascar license areas, next toAfren on shore and Mobil offshore I think, and they have already done their survey work. Remember gas has already been found offshore Mocambique and Tansania - being East Africa and not a thousand miles from west Madagascar . SEY share price capitalisation is about the same as the cash they have in the bank, about $120m, so other interests ( Madagascar / Nigeria etc are in SEY for almost nothing. If Madagascar politics become more stable - Afren, Mobile and Sterling En. would want to drill sooner, or Sterling Energy may get a drilling partner or become a very attractive target. I wish Afren would extend their interests in Madagascar and could take over SEY for almost nothing ( refer to share value and cash in bank above ) After 25 October a lot if interest could be created in Madagascar and 2014 could possibly see some action. I am suggesting a low risk punt in SEY and to watch out for Afren news next year. Any comments ???

Little known information I think -
Madagascar was a French colony and has spent most of the last 100 years in political turmoil - having flurted with Socialism and Army coups etc etc. Democratic elections are planned for 25 October this year, i.e. next month. They have been delayed three times already as a result of ex presidents now barred and ex wife's of presidents now barred. It seems the place is a bit of a basket case most of the time ?????

If the elections planned for 25 October go ahead, then it may be good news for Afren as they have a large on shore license area, already surveyed and ready to drill, I understand. Heavy oil has already been found in Madagascar - refer MOIL, but other serious drilling has not happened for many years, when drilling technology was much less than today.

Sterling Energy ( SEY ), ( yes I have talked about it before and have shares in it )
SEY has two massive offshore Madagascar license areas, next toAfren on shore and Mobil offshore I think, and they have already done their survey work. Remember gas has already been found offshore Mocambique and Tansania - being East Africa and not a thousand miles from west Madagascar . SEY share price capitalisation is about the same as the cash they have in the bank, about $120m, so other interests ( Madagascar / Nigeria etc are in SEY

continued as computer problems
.......... SEY for nothing. I suggest you may have a punt with SEY and watch Afren Madagascar from October 25 2013 onwards. Any comments ?????????

Once the work on the flowlines to the Shaikan-4 well has been completed, the Company will reach the stated production target of 20,000 bopd. Shaikan-4 is the third producing well, which will be tied to the Shaikan PF-1 and the work on 8km of the connecting flowlines is expected to be completed in October 2013.

Short article from IC last week:
"Eight directors and executives of Afren have spent a collective £5.1m buying shares in the company in the open market at prices between 141p and 146p per share - nearly an all-time high.
This would appear to be a remarkable show of faith in the company's future prospects, but the real reason behind the share purchases is much less compelling. In June, the FT lifted the lid on some dubious corporate governance practices at Afren when the company belatedly disclosed in a circular that many of Afren's top management had invested personal money into a private Nigerian company which later became an Afren subsidiary. Afren's management were effectively sitting on paper profits of around $23m and were publicly criticised for their actions. So they announced they would sell the shares to a third party and use all of the proceeds to buy Afren shares and 'undertake to hold them for a minimum of two years'.
All in all, this is not a bad effort by management to salvage some of the lost credibility in the market. Afren is a successful long-term IC buy tip and with the shares trading on just x8 forward earnings and plenty of newsflow expected from exploration over the coming months, we continue to rate the shares a buy despite the corporate governance concerns."

i'm certainly more than happy to be a holder, even with the usual and customary corrupt antics of nigerian management and politicians attaching .... at least you can rest assured that they too will want the company to succeed, even if from a different agenda

Bought in at 141p today - But still do not trust the Management at all.

sp slowly declining, now below 200dma @136p.

Wednesday, October 02, 2013 by Ian Lyall

Citi paints a rosy picture of Kurdistan oil and gas as the export pipeline out via Turkey heads towards completion by the end of the year.

It reckons the traditional 20-25% discount applied to the value of companies operating in the semi-autonomous region of Iraq should unwind as this provides a means to monetise discoveries.

It also points out that gas agreements between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government provides a further catalyst, particularly for companies such as Genel (LON:GENL), which is sitting on huge discoveries such as Miran and Bina Bawi.

Meanwhile, farm-ins and buy-outs will become a theme as majors (Exxon, Total et al) and the large independents (Hess and Marathon) start to become the dominant players in an oil province with a high success rate and which is very firmly low-cost.

“We continue to believe that the discount rate that the market ascribes to Kurdistan-focused names is too high,” said analyst Michael Alsford in a note to clients.

“While regional tensions (such as Syria) remain challenging, the strengthening relationship between Kurdistan and Turkey could see sustainable oil exports and the completion of long-term gas supply agreements over the next three to six months.

“We think this should lead to the discount rate ascribed to Kurdistan-focused names narrowing further.

“We also expect larger oil and gas companies will move to gain a greater exposure to the significant resource potential in Kurdistan, which sits in the first quartile of our global cost curve.”

Citi has Genel, Norway’s DNO International and Afren (LON:AFR) on its ‘buy’ list.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/shell-chief-warns-of-oil-crunch-without-more-investment-20131001-2uqnh.html

45k @147p traded at 16 30?

UT 139.5p.