< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Little known information I think -
Madagascar was a French colony and has spent most of the last 100 years in political turmoil - having flurted with Socialism and Army coups etc etc. Democratic elections are planned for 25 October this year, i.e. next month. They have been delayed three times already as a result of ex presidents now barred and ex wife's of presidents now barred. It seems the place is a bit of a basket case most of the time ?????

If the elections planned for 25 October go ahead, then it may be good news for Afren as they have a large on shore license area, already surveyed and ready to drill, I understand. Heavy oil has already been found in Madagascar - refer MOIL, but other serious drilling has not happened for many years, when drilling technology was much less than today.

Sterling Energy ( SEY ), ( yes I have talked about it before and have shares in it )
SEY has two massive offshore Madagascar license areas, next toAfren on shore and Mobil offshore I think, and they have already done their survey work. Remember gas has already been found offshore Mocambique and Tansania - being East Africa and not a thousand miles from west Madagascar . SEY share price capitalisation is about the same as the cash they have in the bank, about $120m, so other interests ( Madagascar / Nigeria etc are in SEY

continued as computer problems
.......... SEY for nothing. I suggest you may have a punt with SEY and watch Afren Madagascar from October 25 2013 onwards. Any comments ?????????

Once the work on the flowlines to the Shaikan-4 well has been completed, the Company will reach the stated production target of 20,000 bopd. Shaikan-4 is the third producing well, which will be tied to the Shaikan PF-1 and the work on 8km of the connecting flowlines is expected to be completed in October 2013.

Short article from IC last week:
"Eight directors and executives of Afren have spent a collective £5.1m buying shares in the company in the open market at prices between 141p and 146p per share - nearly an all-time high.
This would appear to be a remarkable show of faith in the company's future prospects, but the real reason behind the share purchases is much less compelling. In June, the FT lifted the lid on some dubious corporate governance practices at Afren when the company belatedly disclosed in a circular that many of Afren's top management had invested personal money into a private Nigerian company which later became an Afren subsidiary. Afren's management were effectively sitting on paper profits of around $23m and were publicly criticised for their actions. So they announced they would sell the shares to a third party and use all of the proceeds to buy Afren shares and 'undertake to hold them for a minimum of two years'.
All in all, this is not a bad effort by management to salvage some of the lost credibility in the market. Afren is a successful long-term IC buy tip and with the shares trading on just x8 forward earnings and plenty of newsflow expected from exploration over the coming months, we continue to rate the shares a buy despite the corporate governance concerns."

i'm certainly more than happy to be a holder, even with the usual and customary corrupt antics of nigerian management and politicians attaching .... at least you can rest assured that they too will want the company to succeed, even if from a different agenda

Bought in at 141p today - But still do not trust the Management at all.

sp slowly declining, now below 200dma @136p.

Wednesday, October 02, 2013 by Ian Lyall

Citi paints a rosy picture of Kurdistan oil and gas as the export pipeline out via Turkey heads towards completion by the end of the year.

It reckons the traditional 20-25% discount applied to the value of companies operating in the semi-autonomous region of Iraq should unwind as this provides a means to monetise discoveries.

It also points out that gas agreements between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government provides a further catalyst, particularly for companies such as Genel (LON:GENL), which is sitting on huge discoveries such as Miran and Bina Bawi.

Meanwhile, farm-ins and buy-outs will become a theme as majors (Exxon, Total et al) and the large independents (Hess and Marathon) start to become the dominant players in an oil province with a high success rate and which is very firmly low-cost.

“We continue to believe that the discount rate that the market ascribes to Kurdistan-focused names is too high,” said analyst Michael Alsford in a note to clients.

“While regional tensions (such as Syria) remain challenging, the strengthening relationship between Kurdistan and Turkey could see sustainable oil exports and the completion of long-term gas supply agreements over the next three to six months.

“We think this should lead to the discount rate ascribed to Kurdistan-focused names narrowing further.

“We also expect larger oil and gas companies will move to gain a greater exposure to the significant resource potential in Kurdistan, which sits in the first quartile of our global cost curve.”

Citi has Genel, Norway’s DNO International and Afren (LON:AFR) on its ‘buy’ list.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/shell-chief-warns-of-oil-crunch-without-more-investment-20131001-2uqnh.html

45k @147p traded at 16 30?

UT 139.5p.

October 14, 2013 8:14 pm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/116eb0be-34f2-11e3-8148-00144feab7de.html#axzz2hj4EjEiz

By Bryce Elder

Iraq expolorers were in demand after DNO International of Norway reported that oil from its Tawke oilfield in Kurdistan had flowed at a record rate.

Genel, which owns 25 per cent of Tawke, added 1.3 per cent to 987p while neighbour Afren was bid 7 per cent higher at 145.6p ahead of a trading update next week.

“The discount rate that the market ascribes to Kurdistan-focused names is too high,” said Citigroup. “While regional tensions remain challenging, the strengthening relationship between Kurdistan and Turkey could see sustainable oil exports and the completion of long-term gas supply agreements over the next three to six months.”

Gulf Keystone Petroleum added 2.2 per cent to 182.8p and Rockhopper took on 6.6 per cent to 148.5p after Goldman Sachs named the stocks as potential takeover targets.

Assets in Kurdistan and the Falklands were becoming increasingly attractive as, with exploration costs rising, it was now cheaper for oil majors to buy oil discoveries than to make them, Goldman argued.

We are due an update from Hunt oil

Overview
The Ain Sifni PSC is located 70 km north-west of Erbil, and operated by Hunt Oil Middle East. Drilled on the crest of the Simrit anticline in 2010, the JS-1 discovery well logged continuous oil pay from 3,642 ft to 10,072 ft in Cretaceous and Jurassic reservoirs. Triassic reservoir targets were not penetrated by the well and no oil water contact was established.


Significant resource potential
The PSC has substantial upside over and above the volumes discovered to date at the Simrit structure, with prospective resources independently estimated at 7,493 mmbbls STOIIP and 917 mmbbls recoverable on a gross unrisked basis.

On 17 April 2012, the Group announced that the Simrit-2 exploration well had successfully encountered an estimated 1,342 ft of net oil pay in Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic age reservoirs. The well was initially drilled to its prognosed total measured depth of 12,139 ft but was subsequently deepened to a revised total depth of 12,467 ft to test additional zones of prospectivity. The Partners completed drilling on the Simrit-2 exploration well in July 2012. The objective of the well was to test the western extent of the Simrit anticline, a large scale east to west trending structure located on the northern part of the Ain Sifni PSC. Analysis of data collected over the deepened section of well indicated the continual presence of light oil shows, and extended the estimated net oil pay encountered by the well to 1,509 ft throughout Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic age reservoirs.

Following the conclusion of drilling operations at Simrit-2, a comprehensive well test programme was undertaken.

Testing of the Simrit-2 well is now complete with aggregate flow rates of 19,641 bopd achieved from the planned Drill Stem Test (DST) programme. The well is currently being completed for an Extended Well Test (EWT) in the Jurassic age, Mus/Adaiyah reservoirs. Produced crude is expected to be trucked to local markets.

Of significance, on 12 September 2012, Afren announced that exploration drilling had commenced at the East Simrit prospect (Simrit-3 well). The Simrit-3 well is located approximately 10 km east of the successful Simrit-2 discovery well, and is exploring the eastern extent of the large scale Simrit anticline. The well reached a final maximum depth of 12,300 ft in the Triassic Kurra-Chine formation and has encountered hydrocarbon bearing intervals in the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs. A multi-zone testing programme is underway to confirm the resource potential of the well. Results from the tests are expected to be available from the Operator shortly.

Located within a prolific and proven oil trend

the link is pretty tenuous - 10km is a hell of a long way

From Mr Poshman on another bulletin board.


Lots to look for on Thursday.

Exploration
We may get an update on Ogo-1 and Ogo-1ST prior to Thursday but if not, something should be stated on Thursday.

Remember also that the wells in Nigeria are not the only exploration wells being drilled right now. Maqlub-1 should be close to TD around now. It was stated that the well was spudded in June, so even taking the latest possible date of 30th June and taking the 110 days suggested as the drilling time, this takes us to 18th October, so even taking a bit of a delay or some testing time, should be close to TD if not there already.

Perhaps something on rig contracts also on L17/L18 or Tanga (or maybe both) as well, and potentially something on the Keta block soon, as plans will need to be made shortly being as another well needs to be drilled by May 2014.

Development
Update on Ebok continued development and plans for the new Central Block extension platform.

Update on production levels from Barda Rash. I also expect at least BR-4 to be complete and probably BR-5 also. Would also be good to see if we are getting more wells, being as we know Genel will have completed their pipeline by the end of the year and we've been offered upto 50k bopd capacity in the pipeline.

Update on Ogini FDP (I reckon we will have this approved by now) and updates on when the new wells will be spudded. It was said in the interims that a rig was close by and available in Q3-Q4 to start the drilling campaign at Ogini so may see some traction here.


Other
Okwok FDP submission including possible reserves increase (indicated that there may be a reserves increase in the interims).

Sale of CI-11and LGP complete

Relinquishment of JDZ Block 1 and the other onshore assets in Nigeria (907 and 917).

Possible update on tax situation in Nigeria

Looking forward to the update as usual, should indicate continued progress again.

Interim Management Statement
London, 31 October 2013- Afren plc ("Afren" or the "Group"), (LSE: AFR, FTSE 250 index), announces its Interim Management Statement and financial results for the nine months ended 30 September 2013 and an update on its operations year-to-date 2013, in accordance with the reporting requirements of the EU Transparency Directive. Information contained within this release is un-audited and is subject to further review.

Strong financials, production at the upper end of guidance and continued exploration success.
Afren continues to deliver strong financial results in 2013, driven by the year-on-year 18% increase in net production, principally from the Ebok and Okoro fields, offshore Nigeria. The Group expects to be at the upper end of full year net working interest production guidance (40,000 to 47,000 boepd). Following the play opening discovery and successful drilling results at OPL 310, the Ogo-1 sidetrack has reached total depth and reservoir intervals came in high to prognosis, potentially indicating a larger structure than estimated post the drilling of Ogo-1. In addition, the syn-rift section has encountered a 280' true vertical thickness gross hydrocarbon interval. Based on the positive results, the Partners are progressing with wireline data and testing of the side-track. Exploration wells are drilling ahead in Ethiopia (El Kuran-3) and in the Kurdistan region of Iraq (Maqlub-1).

Key Highlights
· Year-to-date production of 48,573 boepd (+18% year on year). Full year production expected to be at the upper end of guidance (40,000 to 47,000 boepd).

· Successful exploration track record continues:

- Following play opening discovery at OPL 310, offshore Nigeria, Ogo-1 ST successful and now entering testing phase

- Following the successful Drill Stem Test programme at Simrit-2 on the Ain Sifni PSC, Kurdistan region of Iraq (aggregate flow rates of 19,641 bopd), extended well test operations ongoing

- Completion of drilling at Simrit-3. Cumulative oil rate of 6,293 bopd achieved from DST programme in the Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous reservoirs

- Ongoing drilling at Maqlub-1, testing the high potential Maqlub structure adjacent to the producing Barda Rash field

- Ongoing drilling at El Kuran-3 in East Africa, targeting 100 mmbbls of gross prospective resources

· Portfolio optimization:

- Completion of the sale of the CI-11 block and Lion Gas Plant in Côte d'Ivoire to Petroci, realizing a provisional profit on disposal of US$25.3 million

- Agreement reached with Government in Côte d'Ivoire for the reallocation of the CI-01 block (gross area of 1,208 km2) into two new larger blocks, CI-523 (gross area of 1,494 km2) and CI-525 (gross area of 1,221 km2)

· Strong balance sheet and financial flexibility with cash at bank of US$458 million (net debt of US$613 million)

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4696368

Sold a few of mine at 150p

Been in Afren since 2009 - Continue to hold.

What do you make of those after hour trades ?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1786652-afren-growing-production-and-reserves-yet-severely-undervalued

Afren PLC forms bullish "Upside Breakout" chart pattern
Oct 31, 2013

Recognia has detected an "Upside Breakout" chart pattern formed on Afren PLC (AFR:LSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 157.70 to the range of 204.00 - 215.00. The pattern formed over 402 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Tells Me: The price broke upward out of a trading range suggesting we're entering a new uptrend. The Upside Breakout pattern represents a trading range in which prices move sideways between two parallel horizontal lines. It's often a pause or congestion area within an existing trend though sometimes the breakout results in a reversal to the prior trend. Either way, an upside breakout through the upper resistance line signals an end to the consolidation period and the start of an uptrend.