overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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optomistic
- 08 Jul 2005 13:23
- 238 of 1009
The black just shows that the computer connot discern wether it is a buy or a sell.
Don't forget that large trades can be reported late and can look like either a buy or sell at that time based on the present bid/offer. Whereas in fact the trade if done earlier could have been opposite to the buy/sell recorded. Oh it does get complicated :-) hope that helps.
optomistic
- 08 Jul 2005 14:50
- 239 of 1009
Sellers come on the scene and the price ticks up!
Fundamentalist
- 08 Jul 2005 15:29
- 240 of 1009
Fred :-)
Capetown - always bear in mind that sites like this classify whether is a sale or a buy based purely on whether it is closer to the bid or offer at the time it is released. This can at times be very misleading. NEVER rely on the buy/sell ratio as an indicator as it is often misleading - you will often see a trade reported as a sell 10 mins after a tick up that is clearly the buy that caused the tick up in the first place.
SP looks ok currently though volume is quite low. Personally wouldnt expect much movement prior to 1/2 yr results without any further announcements ie new contracts etc
optomistic
- 08 Jul 2005 19:38
- 241 of 1009
Fundy, when you have finished that bottle of white, why don't you expect much movement prior to results? I have a good hope that these are going to move much sooner and in the right direction. My view is based on TA and optimism, if I didn't have that view I wouldn't have bought into them :-)
Cheers
opto
Fred1new
- 08 Jul 2005 23:59
- 242 of 1009
RTD Play their cards close to their chests. They are in the financial field and wish to keep themselves as clean as possible from false leading of the market. Their main announcements come at interims and finals with little hype.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Jul 2005 09:11
- 243 of 1009
Opto
my personal thought is that there is nothing to drive them up prior to results - the trading statement was predictably muted (based on history). Cant see anything to drive the price up (unless new contracts are announced). Ultimately when half year figures are released it will become clearer whether the transaction growth is being effectively translated into greater turnover and profits. If this yrs growth is in line with broker forecasts then to me the share is fairly valued. I would expect the share to pick up later in the yr based on half yr results and then hopefully on a positive trading statement prior to xmas
optomistic
- 09 Jul 2005 09:35
- 244 of 1009
Thanks Fundy, I'm still going for an early rise. First step mid 30's.
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jul 2005 09:50
- 246 of 1009
Og
yes - i did read it last night and all makes sense, however to me the trading statement was as i expected quite downbeat (Clumpy always is at half year). The half yr results will be interesting to read as we dont know how far ahead of last yr the results are though im guessing very little based on the statement. I tend to agree that the full yr will be ahead of "current mkt expectations" though not as far ahead as most of the retail investors on the BBs are hoping for (happy to be proved wrong though). As i mentioned at last yrs results, there needs to be evidence that the strong growth in transactions is being translated into profit and as yet that evidence still doesnt exist. The other factor for me is too see whether the decline in CP has continued or has levelled out otherwise this will partially offset the growth in CNP.
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jul 2005 11:06
- 248 of 1009
OG
The split as at 2004 results was:
Fuel Cards 44% (14.0m)
Card Not Present 31% (9.7m)
Card Present 20% (6.4m)
Consulting 5% (1.6m)
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jul 2005 11:21
- 249 of 1009
OG
Looking at the same at Operating Profit level, the dependence on the fuel card business becomes more apparent (i have split the Op profit on the fraud side based on the gross profit numbers in the report)
Fuel Cards 92% (6.8m)
Card Not Present 11% (0.85m)
Card Present 9% (0.65m)
Consulting -3% (-0.2m)
Unallocated Costs -9% (-0.7m)
If you ignore the consulting and central costs then the pure split is:
Fuel cards 82%
Card Not Present 10%
Card Present 8%
Fundamentalist
- 11 Jul 2005 12:05
- 251 of 1009
OG
with regard to the price of CNP transactions the info is not at all transparent - the revenue is obviously made up of one off payments and some transaction based charges but these are never disclosed - hence when new contracts are announced it is hard to evaluate the impact on results and whether RTD are getting a good deal out of some of these contracts
parveen1
- 13 Jul 2005 14:02
- 252 of 1009
aaaaaaaaaaaaaagggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
i hate this share
Fred1new
- 13 Jul 2005 15:59
- 253 of 1009
There are other shares I hate more. Patience!!!! We need to send Douggie on holiday again!
optomistic
- 13 Jul 2005 16:08
- 254 of 1009
OK Fundy, looks like I may be wrong with the mid 30's soon. Still it's not the first time i've been wrong :-)
optomistic
- 13 Jul 2005 16:08
- 255 of 1009
duplicated. sssslow PC this afternoon, must be the weather!
m0dulus
- 18 Jul 2005 14:20
- 256 of 1009
OG
Whats the latest on this share?