< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

The day Liberum Capital upgrades to buy, Sharesmagazine puts out an article below.

Avoid Afren output gap
Production is currently buoyant but there is uncertainty next year
Uncertainty over next year’s production could make now a good time to exit Middle East and Africa focused oil explorer and producer Afren (AFR). We have been long-term fans of the story, but a likely drop-off in output could prompt a derating ...
hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/avoid-afren-output-gap#.UnvvmeJy33I

It is now time the management updates its shareholders on future Kurdistan output and P2s.

Mr Poshman on another bulletin board in response to avoid Afren.

They are continuing to drill 2 new wells in Kurdistan and I'm pretty sure they are currently constraining production right now due to not having too much access on the trucking side. Remember BR-1 tested comfortably at above 6k bopd. Once they have 5 wells completed, the production capacity will be enough to easily offset a drop in production in Nigeria due to Ebok reaching cost recovery assuming they have a way to market it, hence the excitement over Genels new pipeline.

I doubt we will have any update on Barda Rash until January when Afren should know more about the pipeline and how much capacity they will be granted and when they can start pumping to the pipeline, they mentioned at the half year results in August that they believe they have been offered upto 50k bopd.

P2's you won't hear about either until January. Afren update their annual P2's at the end of December and they have already stated that this will be the first time we hear an upgrade on Ain Sifni (whether Hunt provide them or not) which will only upgrade to 2C anyway. Hopefully we might see an increase in 2P's for Barda Rash thanks to BR-4 and BR-5 as most of the resources on BR are in 2C rather than 2P.

Either way, don't expect an update before January except maybe on OPL310. Ps. this could be Afrens biggest oil discovery in NIgeria.

Plenty still to keep me interested, short term, who knows which way it will go but I'm happy to hold.

London, 19 November 2013 - Afren plc ("Afren" or the "Company") and Partners Optimum Petroleum Development Ltd and Lekoil Limited announce the suspension of current drilling operations at the Ogo prospect located on the OPL 310 licence offshore Nigeria and an update on estimated gross mean recoverable resources, significantly ahead of pre-drill expectations.

OPL 310 is located in the Upper Cretaceous fairway that runs along the West African Transform Margin. Extending from the shallow water continental shelf to deep water, the block represented a wild cat exploration opportunity in an under-explored basin. Detailed pre-drill evaluation of the block identified several prospects lying in the same Turonian, Cenomanian and Albian sandstone intervals that have yielded significant discoveries in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. The first exploration well drilled by the Partners was the Ogo prospect, a four-way dip-closed structure in the Turonian to Albian sandstone reservoirs, which was targeting 78 mmboe of gross P50 prospective resources. The drilling programme included a planned side-track, testing a new play of stratigraphically trapped sediments that pinch-out onto the basement high targeting 124 mmboe of gross P50 prospective resources. In total, the Partners were targeting 202 mmboe of gross P50 prospective resources.

The Ogo-1 well was drilled to a total measured depth of 10,518 ft (10,402 ft true vertical depth subsea), and encountered a gross hydrocarbon section of 524 ft, with 216 ft of net stacked pay. The Ogo-1ST reached a total measured depth (TD) of 17,987 ft (12,050 ft true vertical depth) and encountered hydrocarbon intervals in the same Turonian, Cenomanian and Albian reservoirs that were successfully drilled and logged at the Ogo-1 well. In addition, the syn-rift section encountered a 280 ft true vertical thickness gross hydrocarbon interval.

Based on the well data, the Partners estimate the P50 to P10 gross recoverable resources range to be significantly ahead of pre-drill expectations at 774 to 1,180 mmboe across the Ogo four-way dipped closed and syn-rift structures. Additional upside potential is expected in the syn-rift play. In addition, the latest PVT (Pressure-Volume-Temperature) analysis confirms excellent reservoir fluid properties with a 40 deg API, 600 GOR, 0.42 cp viscosity oil in the Turonian, a 39 deg API, 870 GOR, 0.40 cp viscosity oil in the Cenomanian and a condensate rich gas in the Albian of up to 115 bbls / mmscf. The partners expect the syn-rift to contain a light oil or a condensate rich gas.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4708436

nice to see AFR having a good run, but still a little off that all time high where sp has already faltered twice

I'll second that,added the latest news update to the header.

StockMarketWire.com
finnCap has downgraded its recommendation on Africa-focused oil company Afren (LON:AFR) to"hold" from"buy" on valuation grounds, given the limited remaining upside to its price target. The broker said that it was unsurprised that the shares had caught up with events, following the recent resource update for the Ogo discovery which it believes may prove to be one of the largest in West Africa in 2013. Analysts have trimmed their price target to 165 pence per share from 170 pence.

UBS

OPL 310 discovery significantly ahead of expectations
Afren's 774Mmboe Eko-Agege discovery in the Dahomey Basin, offshore Nigeria (AFR:
40%) looks to be a game changer for the company. We estimate ~53% (413Mmbbl)
of it to be liquids (oil and condensate) which should be relatively straightforward to
monetise (~$45/bbl break-even oil price). For the time being we ascribe no value to the
gas. Based on a condensate stripping and light oil FPSO development concept our NPV
is $9.52/bbl (net) for the liquids alone. This implies an unrisked NAV of £0.86/sh.

Adds significant depth to Afren's resource base
The discovery adds significant depth to Afren's resource base (vs. FY12 2P reserves:
269Mmboe) and could deliver >45kb/d of production (net) on plateau (vs. FY13E:
46kb/d). Geological understanding of the basin is nascent but OPL 310 appears to have
significant upside to chase. Only ~25% of the block is covered with 3D seismic. With
the northern and eastern flanks of the syn-rift and the Ogo, Ado and Shasha structures
still to test there is considerable running room. Further drilling is planned for next year.
Developing this and Kurdistan may even leave Afren with too much on its plate within
a couple of years. Optionality in the asset portfolio would be a nice problem to have.

One of a series of strong investment narratives into 2014
Upside on OPL 310 is one leg of solid investment narrative. Ufon (OML 115) provides
further near field exploration potential (£0.02-0.11/sh) in the Delta; a potentially
material breakthrough has been made in Ebok's fiscal status and, the de-risking of
Kurdistan (a region where Afren has >1Bnboe of net resource) is continuing with the
300kbbl/d Khurmala-Fishkabur oil export pipeline (Afren has 50kb/d of capacity) now
complete. Production growth looks strong in the medium term but does though stall in
2014 as Ebok moves out of peak cost recovery, however we expect incremental barrels
from onshore OML 26 and Barda Rash to cushion this (FY14E: 43kboe/d; -3.5% YoY).

Valuation: target price to £2.00/sh (from £1.90) set by reference to NAV
Core NAV: £1.49/sh (from £1.46); Cont.': £2.33/sh (£2.07); Risked: £2.45/sh (£2.25).

AFR Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 162.00 162.00

Old Tp 280.00

New Tp 270.00

CANACCORD RAISES AFREN PRICE TARGET TO 205 (190) PENCE - 'BUY'

From todays Times

When drilling for oil started in Kurdish Iraq in the midde of the last decade, it was a high-risk play. There is a perception today that much of that risk has evaporated.
Last week the authorities in Erbil, the region’s capital, announced that the first oil had flowed through a pipeline to Turkey. Previously, exports by producers such as Genel Energy and Gulf Keystone Petroleum had been by lorry and much of the oil produced had been sold into the local market.
Yet the political risk has not gone away. The regime in Baghdad, which admittedly has other things on its mind, claims that the export of oil is unconstitutional. Washington, for its own reasons, is not best pleased. The probability is that the oil will continue to flow and that the Kurds and Turkey will sign a gas supply agreement allowing another pipeline to be built.
The main beneficiaries from the start of exports are Genel, which would also benefit from a gas supply agreement, and Afren. The latter is more focused on its African assets, including a vast find off Nigeria, and does not even factor its Kurdish acreage, including the large Barda Rash field where it is the operator, into its estimates of reserves. Genel’s share price has soared over the past year, as the graph shows, to a point that it is about to trigger £100 million of payments to senior executives. A return to investors is further off, because the company has an expensive drilling programme in prospect off Malta and Morocco.
Its holdings in Kurdish Iraq are at the key Taq Taq and Tawke fields, but, as a cautious note from HSBC pointed out recently, there is little clarity on how much can be sold and at what price. At £11, off 13p, that share price is beginning to look a little toppy and investors might think about taking some profits.
Gulf Keystone will need to build its own pipeline spur from its Shaikan field to hook up with the new pipeline into Turkey and this should be ready within 12 to 18 months. The company has shrugged off the threat of litigation over ownership of those assets and there is the potential of further exploration at Shaikan. The most likely outcome remains a bid, before or after it gains a full listing.
The other Kurdish play is Petroceltic. Again, its exposure is limited; the huge Ain Tsila field in Algeria is of far more relevance.
As ever with such stocks, the risk is not to be dismissed. Political developments in Iraq may weigh more heavily on the shares this year than exploration success.

a good article and one could easily be cynical (heaven forbid) and suggest that Genel sp is being manipulated to trigger this payout to the top wallahs (only!)

cynic oil dealings in Iraq continue to be very "murky".

AFR doesn't have that much exposure there, and "does not even factor its Kurdish acreage"

sp down 4.5% today despite broker upgrade.

And still further down despite broker upgrade again today

cynic

What's your take on this price fall

the general markets may give you a clue :-)
as i'm not trying to trade this one at all, i don't pay much attention to the daily moves, though of course would be very happy to it much higher

it appears mend are threatening to blow up oil companies in the delta region.....

Trading statement and operations update is Tuesday 28 January 2014.

London, 28 January 2014 - Afren plc issues the following trading statement and operations update, in advance of the Company's 2013 full year results which are scheduled for release on 27 March 2014. Information contained within this release is un-audited and is subject to further review.

Record financial results, production at the upper end of guidance and continued exploration success.

Afren is expected to deliver record financial results for 2013, with sales revenue of circa US$1.65 billion and operating cash flow in excess of US$1.1 billion. This is driven by a year-on-year 14% increase in like-for-like net production, principally from the Ebok and Okoro fields, offshore Nigeria. Afren recorded total gross production of 59,926 boepd in 2013, with net production of 47,112 boepd. Following exploration success in Nigeria during 2012 and 2013, Afren and its partners will commence development of the Okoro Further Field Development, Ebok North Fault Block and Okwok in 2014, all of which will generate high margin cash flow for the Company. These new developments will ensure that Afren delivers double digit production growth over the next five years. Afren is expecting gross production of approximately 62,000 bopd in 2014 (approximately 40,000 bopd net to Afren), which factors in the shut-down associated with the additional platform installation on Ebok, cost recovery on Ebok, the ongoing regional developments in Kurdistan and the timing of rig arrival on OML 26 onshore Nigeria.

Afren continued its industry-leading exploration success in 2013 with the play opening Ogo discovery at OPL 310, offshore Nigeria, with P50 gross recoverable resources of 774 mmboe. The Company will now acquire 3D seismic ahead of appraisal and further exploration drilling. OPL 310 is located in the Upper Cretaceous fairway that runs along the West African Transform Margin and Afren has similar exposure on the adjacent OML 113 block, in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The syn-rift play which encountered a 280 ft gross hydrocarbon column in the Ogo well also exists on OML 113 and could deliver significant upside to the Aje project, which will be tested in 2014. In addition, during 2013 the Company successfully divested its interests in Block CI-11 and the Lion Gas Plant in Côte d'Ivoire, while negotiating additional acreage in two new blocks, CI-523 and CI-525, thereby increasing its exposure to the West African Transform Margin.

On the Ain Sifni block in Kurdistan, following the world class discovery with the Simrit-2 exploration well (1,509 feet of net oil pay and an aggregate flow rate of 19,641 bopd achieved), drilling was concluded on the Simrit-3 well, confirming the eastern extent of the Simrit anticline and achieving a cumulative test rate of 6,293 bopd. A declaration of commerciality has been submitted to the authorities and a resource upgrade is expected shortly. The Maqlub-1 exploration well, testing the high potential Maqlub structure is drilling ahead, with hydrocarbons encountered in the Cretaceous and Jurassic reservoirs. In East Africa, Afren has acquired over 11,000 km of 2D, 3,000 km2 of 3D and 19,700 km of gravity-magnetic data across the portfolio and has matured ready-to-drill prospects on the Tanga block in Tanzania and L17/18 and Block 1 in Kenya. The Company is currently participating on the El Kuran-3 well. Following hydrocarbon shows, the well has been extended to below the planned target depth to evaluate the deeper Gumboro zone.

The balance sheet is strong, with net debt of US$739 million at the end of 2013 and the Company has successfully extended the maturity of its liabilities and lowered the cost of its debt. The capital budget for 2014 is circa US$845 million and focusses on both high cash return projects and further exploration drilling.

Commenting today, Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc, said:
"2013 has been another exceptional year for Afren, with a combination of record financial results, production ahead of guidance and industry leading exploration success. The play opening Ogo discovery in Nigeria was one of the largest global discoveries in 2013, and will be followed by further appraisal and exploration drilling. At the same time we will continue to allocate capital to the highest cash return projects. This will provide the necessary funding to continue to de-risk our material exploration opportunity set. With industry leading positions in three key global oil and gas regions, Nigeria, the Kurdistan region of Iraq and East Africa, we remain focused on maximising value for our shareholders."

Afren said it foresaw double-digit production growth over the next five years.

Said on Tuesday that its Ogo oil discovery in Nigeria, with an estimated 774 million barrels of oil equivalent, was one of the largest discoveries in the world.

Output would be at the top end of its range after a step-up in production at its Ebok field in Nigeria, its main producing asset.
Overall, 2013 production came in at the top of its annual guidance of 40,000 to 47,000 boepd.

=================

see - isn't that much easier to read and digest, and only a couple of minutes work to do