< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

I'll second that,added the latest news update to the header.

StockMarketWire.com
finnCap has downgraded its recommendation on Africa-focused oil company Afren (LON:AFR) to"hold" from"buy" on valuation grounds, given the limited remaining upside to its price target. The broker said that it was unsurprised that the shares had caught up with events, following the recent resource update for the Ogo discovery which it believes may prove to be one of the largest in West Africa in 2013. Analysts have trimmed their price target to 165 pence per share from 170 pence.

UBS

OPL 310 discovery significantly ahead of expectations
Afren's 774Mmboe Eko-Agege discovery in the Dahomey Basin, offshore Nigeria (AFR:
40%) looks to be a game changer for the company. We estimate ~53% (413Mmbbl)
of it to be liquids (oil and condensate) which should be relatively straightforward to
monetise (~$45/bbl break-even oil price). For the time being we ascribe no value to the
gas. Based on a condensate stripping and light oil FPSO development concept our NPV
is $9.52/bbl (net) for the liquids alone. This implies an unrisked NAV of £0.86/sh.

Adds significant depth to Afren's resource base
The discovery adds significant depth to Afren's resource base (vs. FY12 2P reserves:
269Mmboe) and could deliver >45kb/d of production (net) on plateau (vs. FY13E:
46kb/d). Geological understanding of the basin is nascent but OPL 310 appears to have
significant upside to chase. Only ~25% of the block is covered with 3D seismic. With
the northern and eastern flanks of the syn-rift and the Ogo, Ado and Shasha structures
still to test there is considerable running room. Further drilling is planned for next year.
Developing this and Kurdistan may even leave Afren with too much on its plate within
a couple of years. Optionality in the asset portfolio would be a nice problem to have.

One of a series of strong investment narratives into 2014
Upside on OPL 310 is one leg of solid investment narrative. Ufon (OML 115) provides
further near field exploration potential (£0.02-0.11/sh) in the Delta; a potentially
material breakthrough has been made in Ebok's fiscal status and, the de-risking of
Kurdistan (a region where Afren has >1Bnboe of net resource) is continuing with the
300kbbl/d Khurmala-Fishkabur oil export pipeline (Afren has 50kb/d of capacity) now
complete. Production growth looks strong in the medium term but does though stall in
2014 as Ebok moves out of peak cost recovery, however we expect incremental barrels
from onshore OML 26 and Barda Rash to cushion this (FY14E: 43kboe/d; -3.5% YoY).

Valuation: target price to £2.00/sh (from £1.90) set by reference to NAV
Core NAV: £1.49/sh (from £1.46); Cont.': £2.33/sh (£2.07); Risked: £2.45/sh (£2.25).

AFR Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 162.00 162.00

Old Tp 280.00

New Tp 270.00

CANACCORD RAISES AFREN PRICE TARGET TO 205 (190) PENCE - 'BUY'

From todays Times

When drilling for oil started in Kurdish Iraq in the midde of the last decade, it was a high-risk play. There is a perception today that much of that risk has evaporated.
Last week the authorities in Erbil, the region’s capital, announced that the first oil had flowed through a pipeline to Turkey. Previously, exports by producers such as Genel Energy and Gulf Keystone Petroleum had been by lorry and much of the oil produced had been sold into the local market.
Yet the political risk has not gone away. The regime in Baghdad, which admittedly has other things on its mind, claims that the export of oil is unconstitutional. Washington, for its own reasons, is not best pleased. The probability is that the oil will continue to flow and that the Kurds and Turkey will sign a gas supply agreement allowing another pipeline to be built.
The main beneficiaries from the start of exports are Genel, which would also benefit from a gas supply agreement, and Afren. The latter is more focused on its African assets, including a vast find off Nigeria, and does not even factor its Kurdish acreage, including the large Barda Rash field where it is the operator, into its estimates of reserves. Genel’s share price has soared over the past year, as the graph shows, to a point that it is about to trigger £100 million of payments to senior executives. A return to investors is further off, because the company has an expensive drilling programme in prospect off Malta and Morocco.
Its holdings in Kurdish Iraq are at the key Taq Taq and Tawke fields, but, as a cautious note from HSBC pointed out recently, there is little clarity on how much can be sold and at what price. At £11, off 13p, that share price is beginning to look a little toppy and investors might think about taking some profits.
Gulf Keystone will need to build its own pipeline spur from its Shaikan field to hook up with the new pipeline into Turkey and this should be ready within 12 to 18 months. The company has shrugged off the threat of litigation over ownership of those assets and there is the potential of further exploration at Shaikan. The most likely outcome remains a bid, before or after it gains a full listing.
The other Kurdish play is Petroceltic. Again, its exposure is limited; the huge Ain Tsila field in Algeria is of far more relevance.
As ever with such stocks, the risk is not to be dismissed. Political developments in Iraq may weigh more heavily on the shares this year than exploration success.

a good article and one could easily be cynical (heaven forbid) and suggest that Genel sp is being manipulated to trigger this payout to the top wallahs (only!)

cynic oil dealings in Iraq continue to be very "murky".

AFR doesn't have that much exposure there, and "does not even factor its Kurdish acreage"

sp down 4.5% today despite broker upgrade.

And still further down despite broker upgrade again today

cynic

What's your take on this price fall

the general markets may give you a clue :-)
as i'm not trying to trade this one at all, i don't pay much attention to the daily moves, though of course would be very happy to it much higher

it appears mend are threatening to blow up oil companies in the delta region.....

Trading statement and operations update is Tuesday 28 January 2014.

London, 28 January 2014 - Afren plc issues the following trading statement and operations update, in advance of the Company's 2013 full year results which are scheduled for release on 27 March 2014. Information contained within this release is un-audited and is subject to further review.

Record financial results, production at the upper end of guidance and continued exploration success.

Afren is expected to deliver record financial results for 2013, with sales revenue of circa US$1.65 billion and operating cash flow in excess of US$1.1 billion. This is driven by a year-on-year 14% increase in like-for-like net production, principally from the Ebok and Okoro fields, offshore Nigeria. Afren recorded total gross production of 59,926 boepd in 2013, with net production of 47,112 boepd. Following exploration success in Nigeria during 2012 and 2013, Afren and its partners will commence development of the Okoro Further Field Development, Ebok North Fault Block and Okwok in 2014, all of which will generate high margin cash flow for the Company. These new developments will ensure that Afren delivers double digit production growth over the next five years. Afren is expecting gross production of approximately 62,000 bopd in 2014 (approximately 40,000 bopd net to Afren), which factors in the shut-down associated with the additional platform installation on Ebok, cost recovery on Ebok, the ongoing regional developments in Kurdistan and the timing of rig arrival on OML 26 onshore Nigeria.

Afren continued its industry-leading exploration success in 2013 with the play opening Ogo discovery at OPL 310, offshore Nigeria, with P50 gross recoverable resources of 774 mmboe. The Company will now acquire 3D seismic ahead of appraisal and further exploration drilling. OPL 310 is located in the Upper Cretaceous fairway that runs along the West African Transform Margin and Afren has similar exposure on the adjacent OML 113 block, in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The syn-rift play which encountered a 280 ft gross hydrocarbon column in the Ogo well also exists on OML 113 and could deliver significant upside to the Aje project, which will be tested in 2014. In addition, during 2013 the Company successfully divested its interests in Block CI-11 and the Lion Gas Plant in Côte d'Ivoire, while negotiating additional acreage in two new blocks, CI-523 and CI-525, thereby increasing its exposure to the West African Transform Margin.

On the Ain Sifni block in Kurdistan, following the world class discovery with the Simrit-2 exploration well (1,509 feet of net oil pay and an aggregate flow rate of 19,641 bopd achieved), drilling was concluded on the Simrit-3 well, confirming the eastern extent of the Simrit anticline and achieving a cumulative test rate of 6,293 bopd. A declaration of commerciality has been submitted to the authorities and a resource upgrade is expected shortly. The Maqlub-1 exploration well, testing the high potential Maqlub structure is drilling ahead, with hydrocarbons encountered in the Cretaceous and Jurassic reservoirs. In East Africa, Afren has acquired over 11,000 km of 2D, 3,000 km2 of 3D and 19,700 km of gravity-magnetic data across the portfolio and has matured ready-to-drill prospects on the Tanga block in Tanzania and L17/18 and Block 1 in Kenya. The Company is currently participating on the El Kuran-3 well. Following hydrocarbon shows, the well has been extended to below the planned target depth to evaluate the deeper Gumboro zone.

The balance sheet is strong, with net debt of US$739 million at the end of 2013 and the Company has successfully extended the maturity of its liabilities and lowered the cost of its debt. The capital budget for 2014 is circa US$845 million and focusses on both high cash return projects and further exploration drilling.

Commenting today, Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc, said:
"2013 has been another exceptional year for Afren, with a combination of record financial results, production ahead of guidance and industry leading exploration success. The play opening Ogo discovery in Nigeria was one of the largest global discoveries in 2013, and will be followed by further appraisal and exploration drilling. At the same time we will continue to allocate capital to the highest cash return projects. This will provide the necessary funding to continue to de-risk our material exploration opportunity set. With industry leading positions in three key global oil and gas regions, Nigeria, the Kurdistan region of Iraq and East Africa, we remain focused on maximising value for our shareholders."

Afren said it foresaw double-digit production growth over the next five years.

Said on Tuesday that its Ogo oil discovery in Nigeria, with an estimated 774 million barrels of oil equivalent, was one of the largest discoveries in the world.

Output would be at the top end of its range after a step-up in production at its Ebok field in Nigeria, its main producing asset.
Overall, 2013 production came in at the top of its annual guidance of 40,000 to 47,000 boepd.

=================

see - isn't that much easier to read and digest, and only a couple of minutes work to do

Afren is using its cash in 2014 to develop its Nigerian assetts - $640m on development to increase production.

Afren and its partners will commence development of the Okoro Further Field Development, Ebok North Fault Block and Okwok in 2014, all of which will generate high margin cash flow for the Company. These new developments will ensure that Afren delivers double digit production growth over the next five years.

i bought a few more this morning as sp was just touching 200 dma (south) and of course good rns too

Liberum H/T FT AV


2013 Results in line with expectations and guidance
Net production in 2013 was 47,113 mboed, marginally above the upper end of the guidance range, 40,000 - 47,000 boepd. Revenues were US$1.65bn and operating cash flows, US$1.1bn, also in line with our expectations.


Reasons for reduced production in 2014 should be well understood
Guidance for 2014 is 40,000 boepd, in line with our forecast (also 40,000 boepd). The year-on-year decrease factors in the end of cost recovery and planned shut-down at Ebok, and the ongoing political situation in Kurdistan. The underlying reasons should be well understood by the market – in our view, the year-on-year decrease should not come as a surprise. We expect a return to production growth in 2015 once further developments and field extensions and existing discoveries come onstream.



Catalysts
2014 should be an eventful year for Afren; we expect several catalysts for the shares:
1) Development of three discoveries field extensions in Nigeria, which should start to contribute to production from 2015 onwards.
2) Confirmation of improved commercial terms at Ebok, which we expect along with the full year results.
3) Appraisal of the 774 mmboe Ogo-1 discovery.
4) A resource upgrade in Kurdistan, although this may have limited value in the absence of political progress
5) Results from ten exploration wells (Nigeria East Africa / Kurdistan)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2014-01-28/

Deutsche H/t FT AV


Event: Afren has released an operational update.
DB View: Production for 2013 came in at 47kboe/d (upper end of guidance 40-
47kboe/d) and revenue of $1.65bn (DBe $1.7bn) and operating cash flow of
$1.1bn (DBe $1bn) are largely in line with our expectations. Production
guidance for 2014 is 13% lower than our expectations at 40kboe/d (DBe
46kboe/d) as field shut-downs and cost recovery at Ebok, rig arrivals at OML26
and Kurdistan negatively impact. However, we expect the tax arrangements at
Ebok to limit the negative impact on OCF to some extent. Capex guidance for
2014 is higher than our expectations at $845m (DBe $635m) driven by
increases in development activity at Okoro, Ebok and Okwok. On E&A, we
expect an extensive seismic programme at Ogo in H1 with follow-up drilling in
H2. Afren trades at a 19% discount to our risked NAV of 180p versus the
sector on 27%.