.

There are a number of things to consider now.

Firstly with todays news we get additional cash flow but not only that but the Panhandle area is quite prospective and there are some rather large potential prospects to drill. This can now offer significant upside to AST.

But secondly, whilst it now appears very possible AST will be throwing off loads of cash from Q2 2010 onwards, even more so should the 3 December PEN drills all go to plan, but also soon we shall see the spudding of Fontana-1 with the potential to add 30m to 60m barrels of oil to reserves.

So whilst the present price is getting more and more firm on Hungary gas, we now have the potential significant upside from Fontana coming very soon, which by itself could boost AST by up to 80p or more per share............

Fine times to be holding a nice lot of Ascent, even if Fontana fails the December PEN drills should easily ensure the price is higher in 2010 than it is now, which adds some level of safety net to the risk.

Roll on Fontana-1 (Anangi-2) spudding now, and also news about the 2nd and possibly much larger Panhandle drill now GH-1 is good.

pp AST has a market cap approaching 35m, what is this latest gas find worth in cashflow terms?

Confirmation that the shallower zone has not been tested yet, and its thicker too :)

Notice the word "outstanding" in there too ! :)


DualEx completes testing at Gorbehaza -1 well

CALGARY, Sept. 17 /CNW/ - DualEx Energy International Inc. (TSX-V: "DXE") is pleased to announce the successful completion and testing of the recently drilled Gorbehaza No.1 well ("GH-1") in the Panhandle region of the Nyirseg North Permit in northeast Hungary, and plans to tie-in the well to the Hajdunanas Gas Production Facility 2.5 kilometres to the north. DualEx's interest in GH-1 is 12.5%.

GH-1 encountered two Pannonian gas bearing sand reservoirs with outstanding reservoir quality, and the stratigraphically lower zone of the two has been completed. The 2.5 metre thick sand flowed gas at 3.74 MMcf/d with a flowing wellhead pressure of 1,191 psig. The shallower sand (46 metres up-hole) is 3.25 metres thick and will be completed and put on production once the lower zone has been depleted.

DualEx CEO Garry Hides commented, "We're very happy with the results of the GH-1 completion. The inclusion of 3D seismic in our exploration efforts continues to bear fruit in this basin."

DualEx Energy International Inc. is an oil and gas exploration company with operations in the greater Mediterranean area. DualEx's common shares trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "DXE".



halifax, oil and gas prices are rising, so I am not getting into details yet, oil could well be over 100$ a barrel by end of Q1 2010.

PP we are trying to quantify the cash value of AST's 20% share of this discovery in relation to their current market cap. Thinking of topping up.

3.74mmcf/gas re;ates to roughly 624bopd,ASTshare of 20% is 125biopd,hardly
what OJ led us to nelieve. Still it a good result and will add much needed revenue to the pot and helps to create a strongher support level.
cyril

nice that is what we were thinking,hence sp has not raced ahead yet.

halifax, Utilising a figure of 9$ for Hungarian gas for the GH-1 well you get ;

3700 x 9 = 33,300 US$ per day.

AST have 20% so thats 6,600 US$ a day revenue for AST.

So on a annualised basis thats 2.3m US$ a year revenues for AST.

However the well will deplete and pressure will go downwards and with it production rate, but you can start to see the payback thats possible, and this is only the deeper zone, the upper zone will be put on production when the deeper one is depleted. There is condensate too, and thats worth additional.

The next target at this area is much larger so GH-2 could add a lot more to AST.

Put these prices into say 6 or 7 or 8 mmscf per day from PEN-105 (and with PEN the Ascent percentage is much higher) and the ongoing PEN-104A well flow rates, and add the three coming PEN drills in December and adding GH-2 and you see it starts to add up into serious cash flow for Ascent, they may be making over 10m pounds per annum on an annualised basis from Hungary come Q2 2010.

And, there are lots more leads to drill, lots of pockets, and some of them are very much larger. They also have the Bajsca project they can get on with and that, once ongoing, could add another 10m annualised revenues into the pot.

Then you have Slovenia, the Ripi oilfiield redevelopment in Italy, Switzerland, and of course the Po Valley license in Italy (Gazatta was only one lead on that license, there are many other potential targets and some of equal potential size to what Gazza was - meeting with Otto in November to discuss next plans for the Po Valley license - possibly some new seismic and mature some of the other leads into "drill ready" status) and so on and on with other assets and that is all totally ignoring the Fontana-1 (Anangi) drill - which is probably the best thing to do as a long term investor in AST, if it comes in we will be over the moon, if not then it was just a distraction like the initial Po Valley well "Gazza" was.

Its worth remembering for Slovenia, where 3D seismic is ongoing now :

Petisovci 3‐D seismic acquisition

Substantial tight gas potential estimates up to 300Bcf

Shallow oil targets in the 5 to 10 million barrel range

Previously producing area so infrastructure in place therefore allowing very quick development of reserves.


So whilst Hungary is the popular talking point now, and Fontana will be soon, 2010 will also be hopefully lots of talk about Slovenia too, as an example of the potential of this little junior AIM oily with its diverse and interesting assets.

Pen/GH are oroven and will produce revenue but their are costs to consider?

The well has been completed as a gas producing well and 2.5km of pipeline will be laid to the Hajd Gas Production Facility, where condensate will be recovered and the gas processed and sold into the main Hungarian gas pipeline network.

The other area's are still ti be proven(we had our share of dusters),so while theirs much to play for one must not count the chickens just yet and these onclude the propects which will become company makers if successful?
Fontana while an appraiisal well is complcated,the 1st well gave hydrocarbon shows but was abandoned,so its very much fingers crossed at this stage?
What we have this minute is encouraging and proves revevue to drill these bigger prospects,so i repeat much to play for?
aimho
cyril

Well, 3 more drills for the PEN area we already know about for December (PEN-106, PEN-101 and PEN-104AA) however now there are 3 more coming in the other Hungarian area following the success of GH-1 (be it GH-2, GH-3 and GH-4 or whatever they want to call them).


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/8288/fd-capital-says-encouraged-by-string-of-successes-from-ascent-resources-8288.html

................The broker called this “another excellent piece of news for Ascent” and said this success validates the play concept for three other similar structures within the licence boundaries. Planning should be now underway for drilling those new locations.....................


.

Proselehes i agree theirs more to come and looking forward to updates,didn'r mean to sound negative just realistic?
cyril

From OJ at IV.

Here is the area that I am very interested in. It is the roughly 60 square mile area that we'll drill in through 2010 in terms of our 12.5% working interest in the Panhandle area.

The wells drilled thus far are 3 for 3. Two good one for just HHE and JKX at Hajdunanas and the one just announced the Gh-1 at Gorbehaza. The area has big(ger) gas reserve potential in 4 different possible payzones...2 in the Pannonian and 2 in the Miocene. What is different that the Pen area is the almost perfect quality of the Pannonian sandstone sequences and the fact that the deepest Miocene has oil potential and shows in the area. Imagine, they have not managed to get the Miocene into production and yet on three wells they have essentially dst's 38 mmscf.d (30 for the 2 Hajd. wells and 8 for the Gh-1 well). The next Panhandle well will go down along the yellow line (app) between Gorbehaza and Hajdudorog and south of Hajdunanas.




.

Leni's presentation but they have a small percentage in the Ascent Hungary PEN license so some info is of interest to AST holders.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera/files/companies/leni_gas_presentation_17_sep.pdf

.

Excellent post by OJ on his take on the Hungary PEN area seismic.

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12050&mn=4593&pt=msg&mid=7931848

.

Rumours have it that not only will Fontana-1 in Italy be spudding in coming weeks that also we will likely have a Hungarian drill spudding as well.

Given the raging success of GH-1 and the fact they have a second, and much larger, already ready to go, based on the same analysis that led them to the GH-1 potential, then it may be we see GH-2 very soon as well.

This one is said to be substantially larger than GH-1 in size.

Bring it on, 2 drills ongoing in the month of October will be nice.

And we still have 3 PEN drills planned in December :)

Summary of the Peneszlek (PEN) wells.

PEN-104A is still in production but depleting down and nearing its end.

PEN-105 - drilled and found gas reserves and flowed at far higher rates (significant amounts for reserves and flows). Being put into production.

PEN-106 - to be drilled. 4 way closed structure south of the PEN-105 location.

PEN-101 - was going to be a sidetrack of PEN-102 but following 3D seismic will now be a new well targeting gas reserves.

PEN-104AA - following 3D seismic a new well at the PEN-104 location will be drilled targeting reserves higher than has already been produced by the original PEN-104 and the sidetrack PEN-104A combined.

PEN-9? - more work is ongoing on this well, new location will be chosen as original PEN-9 tested gas/water from the Miocene.

++++

PEN-9 should be drilled in 2010.

PEN-106 / PEN-101 / PEN-104A should all be before year end 2009, and perhaps the first one starting in October 2009 it seems.

++++

PEN-104A presently in production.

By end Q1 2010 from just the PEN area there should be PEN-104AA, PEN-105, PEN-106, PEN-101 all in production.

The pic below is not accurate but only intended to give a rough idea of where the action is going to be taking place at the PEN area.




.

Like the word "substantial" in there for this PEN-104AA sidetrack.

Also news that for Fontana-1 (Anagni) the drilling rig will be mobilised second week of October.


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200909280700097282Z

RNS Number : 7282Z
Ascent Resources PLC
28 September 2009

Commences PEN-104AA Sidetrack

Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, through its 45.23% owned subsidiary PetroHungaria Kft ('PetroHungaria'), announces the commencement of a further sidetrack of the PEN-104 well ('PEN-104AA'), to test a substantial Miocene volcani-clastic (tuffaceous) prospect in the Penzlek field in the Nys permits of north eastern Hungary. The target for the sidetrack, identified on the 3D seismic that was acquired last year, will be drilled from the existing PEN-104A wellbore on essentially the same trajectory to a depth anticipated to be equivalent to a vertical depth of approximately 1,360 metres.

The rig that will used to drill the well is the same one that recently drilled and completed the nearby, successful, PEN-105 well. The Partners in PetroHungaria have decided that, due to the immediate availability of the drilling rig and associated services, along with the near complete depletion of the PEN-104A sand and the consequent increasing water production, that this is an ideal time to undertake these operations. PetroHungaria anticipates that, with the successful completion of drilling, production at the site will resume within a month.

PEN-104A is a sidetrack of the original Penzlek PEN-104 well and was drilled to recover gas from an undrained fault compartment in the Pannonian Sands identified on 3D seismic. The combined production from both PEN-104 and PEN-104A is approximately 1.0 Bcf, yielding a satisfactory recovery factor of over 70% of the originally estimated gas in place for these reservoirs.

Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'This is an excellent opportunity to explore this highly promising prospect, which we believe has the potential to add significant reserves to the PEN-104 well. Immediate availability of the drilling equipment has presented an ideal opportunity to allow us to complete the drilling swiftly and minimise disruption to gas production at the site. We look forward to providing further updates as the work nears its completion.'

In Italy's Latina Valley, site works are nearing completion to allow Ascent to commence drilling the Fontana 1 geological appraisal well. The drilling rig is now expected to mobilise to the location in the second week in October.

The technical information contained in this release has been reviewed and approved Dr Clive Ninnes, Ascent's Engineering Manager. Dr Ninnes, a member of SPE has 28 years relevant experience in the evaluation of hydrocarbon resources.


* * ENDS * *

So the drill schedule could look like this then. and this is just for Hungary and Italy and ignoring anything else that could happen for AST, like farm outs, farm ins, SS deals, divestments etc.... (GH-2 and GH-3 refer to Panhandle 2 and 3)

I do like the look of this PEN-104AA news. We have here a well that has produced via original and sidetrack to the extent of its expected delivery but now, thanks to 3D seismic, we have the potential for more gas, in excess (how far we do not know) of the totals that has so far been produced by the original and first sidetrack. Thats all pure unexpected upside on success if this second sidetrack pays off. The Miocene in the PEN area is looking more and more exciting, and we could see the potential GIIP figure for this area greatly upgraded in future with some further Miocene success. I think PEN-105 results have influenced the bringing forward of this PEN-104AA. We know they say PEN-105 is substantially better than was expected, and I think the Miocene here in this area could deliver significant upside, perhaps in the region of 2 to 4 times the initial expectations of the PEN area so some are saying :


September 2009 - PEN-104AA spuds

October 2009 - PEN-104AA completes
October 2009 - Fontana-1 spuds in Italy (Anagni)
October 2009 - PEN-104AA results and on line producing
October 2009 - GH-2 spuds on the Hungarian PanHandle.

November 2009 - Fontana-1 TD and feedback and on to testing.
November 2009 - GH-2 TD and testing
November 2009 - Preparation for PEN wells in December.

December 2009 - Fontana-1 update
December 2009 - GH-2 testing results
December 2009 - PEN 101 spuds
December 2009 - GH-3 spuds
December 2009 - PEN-101 TD and testing.
December 2009 - PEN-106 spuds
December 2009 - PEN 101 testing results
December 2009 - GH-3 TD

January 2010 - GH-3 results of testing
January 2010 - Fontana-1 update
January 2010 - PEN-106 TD
January 2010 - PEN-106 results/testing

Trades flocking in sub 8p,with all that news on the horizon, i would expect 10p+,might even break 12p? aimho
cyril

Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell Total Unknown
29/09/09 16:56 8.0458 9,140,000 O 7.25 7.5 Buy 10,321,199 600,114 7,000