< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

a good article and one could easily be cynical (heaven forbid) and suggest that Genel sp is being manipulated to trigger this payout to the top wallahs (only!)

cynic oil dealings in Iraq continue to be very "murky".

AFR doesn't have that much exposure there, and "does not even factor its Kurdish acreage"

sp down 4.5% today despite broker upgrade.

And still further down despite broker upgrade again today

cynic

What's your take on this price fall

the general markets may give you a clue :-)
as i'm not trying to trade this one at all, i don't pay much attention to the daily moves, though of course would be very happy to it much higher

it appears mend are threatening to blow up oil companies in the delta region.....

Trading statement and operations update is Tuesday 28 January 2014.

London, 28 January 2014 - Afren plc issues the following trading statement and operations update, in advance of the Company's 2013 full year results which are scheduled for release on 27 March 2014. Information contained within this release is un-audited and is subject to further review.

Record financial results, production at the upper end of guidance and continued exploration success.

Afren is expected to deliver record financial results for 2013, with sales revenue of circa US$1.65 billion and operating cash flow in excess of US$1.1 billion. This is driven by a year-on-year 14% increase in like-for-like net production, principally from the Ebok and Okoro fields, offshore Nigeria. Afren recorded total gross production of 59,926 boepd in 2013, with net production of 47,112 boepd. Following exploration success in Nigeria during 2012 and 2013, Afren and its partners will commence development of the Okoro Further Field Development, Ebok North Fault Block and Okwok in 2014, all of which will generate high margin cash flow for the Company. These new developments will ensure that Afren delivers double digit production growth over the next five years. Afren is expecting gross production of approximately 62,000 bopd in 2014 (approximately 40,000 bopd net to Afren), which factors in the shut-down associated with the additional platform installation on Ebok, cost recovery on Ebok, the ongoing regional developments in Kurdistan and the timing of rig arrival on OML 26 onshore Nigeria.

Afren continued its industry-leading exploration success in 2013 with the play opening Ogo discovery at OPL 310, offshore Nigeria, with P50 gross recoverable resources of 774 mmboe. The Company will now acquire 3D seismic ahead of appraisal and further exploration drilling. OPL 310 is located in the Upper Cretaceous fairway that runs along the West African Transform Margin and Afren has similar exposure on the adjacent OML 113 block, in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The syn-rift play which encountered a 280 ft gross hydrocarbon column in the Ogo well also exists on OML 113 and could deliver significant upside to the Aje project, which will be tested in 2014. In addition, during 2013 the Company successfully divested its interests in Block CI-11 and the Lion Gas Plant in Côte d'Ivoire, while negotiating additional acreage in two new blocks, CI-523 and CI-525, thereby increasing its exposure to the West African Transform Margin.

On the Ain Sifni block in Kurdistan, following the world class discovery with the Simrit-2 exploration well (1,509 feet of net oil pay and an aggregate flow rate of 19,641 bopd achieved), drilling was concluded on the Simrit-3 well, confirming the eastern extent of the Simrit anticline and achieving a cumulative test rate of 6,293 bopd. A declaration of commerciality has been submitted to the authorities and a resource upgrade is expected shortly. The Maqlub-1 exploration well, testing the high potential Maqlub structure is drilling ahead, with hydrocarbons encountered in the Cretaceous and Jurassic reservoirs. In East Africa, Afren has acquired over 11,000 km of 2D, 3,000 km2 of 3D and 19,700 km of gravity-magnetic data across the portfolio and has matured ready-to-drill prospects on the Tanga block in Tanzania and L17/18 and Block 1 in Kenya. The Company is currently participating on the El Kuran-3 well. Following hydrocarbon shows, the well has been extended to below the planned target depth to evaluate the deeper Gumboro zone.

The balance sheet is strong, with net debt of US$739 million at the end of 2013 and the Company has successfully extended the maturity of its liabilities and lowered the cost of its debt. The capital budget for 2014 is circa US$845 million and focusses on both high cash return projects and further exploration drilling.

Commenting today, Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc, said:
"2013 has been another exceptional year for Afren, with a combination of record financial results, production ahead of guidance and industry leading exploration success. The play opening Ogo discovery in Nigeria was one of the largest global discoveries in 2013, and will be followed by further appraisal and exploration drilling. At the same time we will continue to allocate capital to the highest cash return projects. This will provide the necessary funding to continue to de-risk our material exploration opportunity set. With industry leading positions in three key global oil and gas regions, Nigeria, the Kurdistan region of Iraq and East Africa, we remain focused on maximising value for our shareholders."

Afren said it foresaw double-digit production growth over the next five years.

Said on Tuesday that its Ogo oil discovery in Nigeria, with an estimated 774 million barrels of oil equivalent, was one of the largest discoveries in the world.

Output would be at the top end of its range after a step-up in production at its Ebok field in Nigeria, its main producing asset.
Overall, 2013 production came in at the top of its annual guidance of 40,000 to 47,000 boepd.

=================

see - isn't that much easier to read and digest, and only a couple of minutes work to do

Afren is using its cash in 2014 to develop its Nigerian assetts - $640m on development to increase production.

Afren and its partners will commence development of the Okoro Further Field Development, Ebok North Fault Block and Okwok in 2014, all of which will generate high margin cash flow for the Company. These new developments will ensure that Afren delivers double digit production growth over the next five years.

i bought a few more this morning as sp was just touching 200 dma (south) and of course good rns too

Liberum H/T FT AV


2013 Results in line with expectations and guidance
Net production in 2013 was 47,113 mboed, marginally above the upper end of the guidance range, 40,000 - 47,000 boepd. Revenues were US$1.65bn and operating cash flows, US$1.1bn, also in line with our expectations.


Reasons for reduced production in 2014 should be well understood
Guidance for 2014 is 40,000 boepd, in line with our forecast (also 40,000 boepd). The year-on-year decrease factors in the end of cost recovery and planned shut-down at Ebok, and the ongoing political situation in Kurdistan. The underlying reasons should be well understood by the market – in our view, the year-on-year decrease should not come as a surprise. We expect a return to production growth in 2015 once further developments and field extensions and existing discoveries come onstream.



Catalysts
2014 should be an eventful year for Afren; we expect several catalysts for the shares:
1) Development of three discoveries field extensions in Nigeria, which should start to contribute to production from 2015 onwards.
2) Confirmation of improved commercial terms at Ebok, which we expect along with the full year results.
3) Appraisal of the 774 mmboe Ogo-1 discovery.
4) A resource upgrade in Kurdistan, although this may have limited value in the absence of political progress
5) Results from ten exploration wells (Nigeria East Africa / Kurdistan)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2014-01-28/

Deutsche H/t FT AV


Event: Afren has released an operational update.
DB View: Production for 2013 came in at 47kboe/d (upper end of guidance 40-
47kboe/d) and revenue of $1.65bn (DBe $1.7bn) and operating cash flow of
$1.1bn (DBe $1bn) are largely in line with our expectations. Production
guidance for 2014 is 13% lower than our expectations at 40kboe/d (DBe
46kboe/d) as field shut-downs and cost recovery at Ebok, rig arrivals at OML26
and Kurdistan negatively impact. However, we expect the tax arrangements at
Ebok to limit the negative impact on OCF to some extent. Capex guidance for
2014 is higher than our expectations at $845m (DBe $635m) driven by
increases in development activity at Okoro, Ebok and Okwok. On E&A, we
expect an extensive seismic programme at Ogo in H1 with follow-up drilling in
H2. Afren trades at a 19% discount to our risked NAV of 180p versus the
sector on 27%.

"Is this the next Tullow" - I certainly hope it is not -

Tullow has been in free fall for the past two years, in spite of good broker recommendations.
They say some recent drilling news has not been good, but does justify such a fall. Perhaps it was overpriced previously, but it not seems to be good value, and with take over possibilities.
Maybe a warning - do not over chase Afren ?

problem for shareholders is all of their profit goes back into the sea so those involved make plenty of money but shareholders get bugger all.

don't know about you, but i get capital growth, which is just dandy by me

Oil company Afren (AFR) expects that revenues generated over 2013 will come in at around $1.65 billion (1 million pounds), up on the $1.57 billion (0.95 billion pounds) it generated a year earlier. The increase was driven by a 14% jump in net production as the Okoro and Ebok fields off the coast of Nigeria began to come in to their own. Management went on to argue that its exposure to oil markets in Nigeria, the Kurdistan region of Iraq and East Africa leave it in a good position to maximise value for its shareholders. The shares grew by 6p to 150.9p.

200p target now for me.....might not be in straight lines.....over the next 6 months.....the problem is that the market is all over the place ; one day rocketing...the next gloom and doom....with that in mind caution springs to mind for all investors, amateurs like most of us and the city professionals...surge in crude WTI price might help...

not so terrible over the last week or so :-)