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Econergy International (ECG)     

G D Potts - 30 Apr 2006 23:14

Econergy International, which has offices in Boulder, Colorado, and Washington DC, USA, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and Monterrey, Mexico, has under development 40 clean energy projects throughout Latin America that may also sell carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism. In addition to the carbon trades it brokers, it also takes equity stakes in projects which yield carbon credits.

In February 2006, Econergy International PLC floated on the Alternative
Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange. The Company's mnemonic is ECG.

Econergy Homepage

Major Holders
Ospraie Management - 9,680,927 (11.13%)
Scottish Widows - 8,418,300 (9.55%)
MPC Investors 6,608,268 (7.60%)
Thomas H. Stoner Jr 5,538,039 (6.37%)
Deutsche Bank AG - 4,419,700 (5.08%)
Halbis Capital Management - 4,295,266 (4.94%)
Moore Capital Management - 4,000,000 (4.60%)
Frederick Renner 2,766,425 (3.17%)

Advisor
Piper Jaffray Ltd
Dresdner Kleinwort Target Price 155p (15 Jan 08)

Projects by Location

Bolivia
50 per cent interest acquired for $20 million in February 2007 in Empresa Eltrica Corani S.A., a leading Bolivian hydroelectric operation that is expected to continue to generate 391,320 net MWh per year, representing roughly 20 per cent of Bolivias total electricity capacity. The dividend from the plant will be declared in April 2008.

Brazil
Pedra do Sal: In August 2007 the Group acquired the rights, subject to government approval, to own 100 per cent of this wind project expected to generate 61,000 gross MWh per year. Econergy International also signed an agreement with Wobben Windpower, the Brazilian subsidiary of Enercon GmbH, to purchase, install and maintain 20 wind turbines for a total capacity of 18 MW. Site work is expected to commence prior to year end, and the plant expects to be in operation by 1 January 2009. The output has been sold on a 20-year term at a starting tariff of approximately $114 per MWh.
Areia Branca: A 78.8 per cent. owned hydroelectric project, with a total capacity of 19.8 MW, is expected to generate 97,000 gross MWh per year with Econergy International owning an effective net 76,000 MWh. The plant is expected to be in operations by Q4 2008.
Beberibe: A 90 per cent owned wind project expected to generate 90,000 gross MWh per year with Econergy International owning a net 80,000 MWh. In April 2007 Econergy International signed an equipment purchase and installation agreement with Wobben Windpower to purchase, install and maintain 32 wind turbines at the site for a total capacity of 25.6 MW. The plant is expected to be in operation by the 2nd Quarter of 2008.
Pipoca Hydroelectric: Econergy International entered into an agreement to purchase 51 per cent of the 20 MW Pipoca hydroelectric project in the State of Minas Gerais in Brazil from its current owner. The remaining 49 per cent is owned by CEMIG, the state of Minas Gerais electric utility, which will also issue a guarantee on the 20-year PPA on behalf of its distributors. The total project cost is expected to be approximately $48 million. Sales of electricity are expected to average 104,000 gross MWh annually. In addition, the project should produce approximately 10,000 CERs annually. The agreements with CEMIG are expected to be finalized during the fourth quarter of 2007.

Costa Rica
Proyecto Eolico Guanacaste: A 100 per cent owned wind project expected to generate 112,000 net MWh per year. Econergy International and its partners signed an agreement with Enercon GmbH in August 2007 for the supply and maintenance service for 55 wind turbines for a total capacity of 49.5 MW. Site construction is expected to begin by December 2007. 25.2 MW expected to come online in Q1 2009 with the remaining 24.3 MW expected in the First quarter of 2010.

USA
Cambria: In September 2007 the Group signed an agreement to acquire for $2.7 million a 50 per cent interest in a coalmine methane project under construction in Pennsylvania that is expected to yield 700,000 carbon credits over the 14 year life of the project. The project will also provide pipeline quality gas to the regional natural gas pipeline system. The expected gas production is 300 million cubic feet per year to be sold on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The project should come online in the 1st Quarter of 2008.

Mexico
Econergy International has executed land use agreements for the 20 MW Loreto Bay Wind Farm project and the 20 MW Eica Santa Catarina wind project. Some remaining land agreements for Santa Catarina are still being negotiated. Econergy International expects to execute a turbine supply agreement for the turbines in the late 2007 as well as PPAs with the local municipalities. The Group will also enter into an EPC contract for project construction with an international construction company. The total project cost of the Santa Catarina project is expected to be approximately $48 million and is expected to generate approximately 42,000 gross MWh and 26,000 gross CERs annually. Eighteen per cent of the project is expected to be sold to the CleanTech Fund. The total project cost of the Loreto Bay project is expected to be approximately $56 million and should generate approximately 45,000 gross MWh and 20,000 gross CERs annually. Approximately 15 per cent of the project is expected to be sold to the CleanTech Fund.

Chile
Laja:Awaiting News

Econergy's Consulting areas of expertise
Carbon Emissions Management
GHG emissions inventories
Emissions management plans
Power Project Transaction Support
Market assessments
Financial structure development
Investment due diligence
Project development support
Sustainable Energy Infrastructure
Energy infrastructure master planning
Resource & technology assessments
Feasibility studies
Institutional Program Support
Fund design and structure
Program design, implementation and performance evaluations
Management Team

My Thoughts
By the end of 2008 ECG will own and operate over four considerable renewable energy projects, these will deliver substantial revenues and allow for further investment in new projects and a dividend. As we move into 2009 the larger of Econergy's projects will come online and contribute heavily to ECG's target 1.2 million Mwh under management in 2009.
The projects all qualify for CER's (Certified Emission Reductions) and ECG can trade these with polluting companies in Latin America at a hefty profit. ECG also brokers large deals in Carbon Credits across the world, getting paid well in the process.
It's management of the Clean Energy Fund, created by global banking corporations, allows for ECG to sell part ownership of some of its projects to the fund and also gain a reputation within the renewable energy sector.
The USA is opening up to renewable energy and ECG has recognised this potentially huge opportunity by researching a number of 'clean' projects both under construction and in operation within the US for potential investment.

Econergy is my pick for sustained long - term growth. It's in a growing market, which also happens to be ethically sound and very profitable. It's management are not afraid to adopt a long term cautious approach to running the business and this has helped ECG lay the groundwork for becoming a highly successful global enterprise. The current share price in no way reflects the long term potential of ECG, my personal price target is 200p within 2 years. 5 Aug 2007. The recent weakness presents a great buying opportunity, which is in my view evidenced by the substantial holdings of Man Group, HSBC and RBS. Their assets are forecast to be worth $1.2 Billion by 2011, giving a NAV at that time of 346p.

Expected News
Early 2008, News of a turbine order for the Mexican Wind projects Eolica Santa Catarina and Loreto Bay is expected to be released.
12 May 2008, Econergy's preliminary's.
4th quarter 2008, Areia Branca expected to enter commercial operations.
March 2008, turbine testing at Beberibe.
Q2 2008, Beberibe expected to enter commerical operations.
Early 2008, bids for the balance of Proyecto Eolico Guanacaste should be awarded.
Q1 2008, Cambria is expected to enter commercial operations.

G D Potts - 28 Aug 2007 20:26 - 24 of 44

Press release
For immediate release
21 August 2007


Econergy International PLC

Econergy International acquires fourth renewable energy project in Latin America

Econergy International PLC ('Econergy International' or 'the Company'), a
renewable Independent Power Producer (IPP) focused primarily in the Americas, is
pleased to announce the signing of an acquisition agreement, subject to
governmental approvals for the transfer of permits and contracts in the ordinary
course of business, for the purchase of 100% of the 18 MW Pedra do Sal wind
project in the state of Piaui, Brazil and an agreement with Wobben Windpower to
install twenty 900 kW wind turbines.

Econergy is purchasing an 18 MW wind project at a class 1 wind site for
an upfront consideration of $0.46m with a further $2.78m to be paid on 12/31/11.

Econergy has signed an agreement with Wobben Windpower Industria e
Comercio Ltda., the Brazilian subsidiary of the German company, Enercon GmbH, to
purchase, install and maintain 20 x 900 kW E-44 wind turbines at the site, which
is located in the state of Piaui, Brazil.

Econergy anticipates that the project will generate approximately 61,000 MWh per
year and that the capital cost will be approximately $50 million. A Power
Purchase Agreement is already in place with Eletrobras, Brazil's
government-owned electric company, for a 20-year term at a starting tariff of
approximately $114 per MWh. The project is expected to enter into commercial
operations by January 2009.

With the addition of Pedra do Sal, Econergy International has three projects in
construction and one project in operation. Once fully operational, the total
generation from these four projects will be over one million megawatt hours.
Together with projects in late stage development, the Company remains on target
to deliver 1.4 million gross megawatt hours in 2009.

G D Potts - 28 Aug 2007 20:28 - 25 of 44

Press release
For immediate release
24 August 2007

Econergy International PLC

Proyecto Eolico Guanacaste (PEG) Project Signs Turbine Supply Agreement

Econergy International PLC ('Econergy International' or 'the Company'), a
renewable Independent Power Producer (IPP) focused primarily in the Americas, is
pleased to announce two significant developments with its 49.5 MW PEG wind
project in Costa Rica.

Signed turbine supply and installation agreement with
ENERCON GmbH ('ENERCON') for fifty-five E-44/900 kW turbines; and

Signed PartnerKonzept (O&M) agreement with ENERCON for an
11-year period that begins once PEG starts operations in 2008.

In 2006, Econergy and its partners, Saret de Costa Rica, S.A. and juwi GmbH (the
'Consortium'), submitted a bid to supply 49.5 MW of wind energy to Instituto
Costarricense de Electricidad ('ICE') in a competitive tender for a 20-year
Build, Own, Operate and Transfer contract. The Consortium now has a signed
agreement with ENERCON to supply and install fifty-five E-44/900 kW Wind Energy
Converters. In addition, the Consortium and ENERCON have signed an EPK (O&M)
agreement whereby ENERCON will provide PEG with a comprehensive operation,
maintenance and spare parts agreement for an 11-year period once PEG commences
operations in 2008.

Details of PEG were included in the final results for the year ended 31 December
2006 announced on 10th May 2007. Econergy now expects the project to annually
generate approximately 245,000 MWh, reflecting the exceptional load factors at
this excellent wind site, and 37,000 Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs),
increases of 23 per cent and 76 per cent respectively from our previous
estimates. The total estimated project cost for PEG has risen 10 per cent to
$103 million. Econergy's interest in the project is 45.9 per cent. We continue
to anticipate that the project will enter into partial commercial operations,
24.3 MW, during the fourth quarter of 2008, with the remainder coming on line in
the fourth quarter of 2009.

Tom Stoner, CEO at Econergy commented:

'The PEG project represents the third supply contract Econergy International has
signed with ENERCON or its subsidiary company, Wobben, for wind turbines in
Latin America.

These agreements continue to reinforce Econergy's reputation as one of the
leading renewable Independent Power Producers in the region with access to
quality OEM partners in a tight market for turbines.' He added: 'By signing the
O&M agreement, we are also reducing our project risk as we outsource safety
inspections, maintenance and repairs, among other activities, into the hands of
the experts who have engineered, tested and serviced this equipment. This all
ensures we are able to deliver our targeted output within our planned
timescale.'

G D Potts - 28 Aug 2007 20:29 - 26 of 44

More news and a new update that has revised output levels much higher by 26% and 76%, whilst the cost has only risen 10%.
This company is a sure fire long term bet to double over the next few years and pay a very healthy dividend during 09.

argos7 - 29 Aug 2007 23:52 - 27 of 44

totally agree potts will be getting in soon just before final results I expect! lots of massive trades of late!

ValueMax - 15 Oct 2007 12:41 - 28 of 44

When are they likely to break even?

G D Potts - 15 Oct 2007 15:16 - 29 of 44

For the 6 months up to June 07 ECG recorded a 0.6$ million loss down from 3.4$ million in the same period of 06.
I would expect, as new projects come online, for ECG to become profitable in the first half of 08.

G D Potts - 15 Oct 2007 15:32 - 30 of 44

I am planning to make my holding the core of my portfolio within the month and am confident that there is a lot of money to be made through buying this one early

ValueMax - 16 Oct 2007 09:47 - 31 of 44

What are your thoughts on the admin expenses that ECG have been incurring?

Without them, they'd currently be running at a profit. Can the expenses be reduced to create a leaner company?

G D Potts - 17 Oct 2007 13:42 - 32 of 44

I assume the admin costs are coming from the number of deals that ECG is brokering, i.e. turbine agreements for their windfarms, management of the clean energy fund, brokerage of carbon credit deals and prolonged negotiations with governments (Which can be slow and expensive) to guarentee ownership and land rights for potential projects.
I believe these costs will begin to come in lower once ECG has established the vast majority of the paperwork involved with pipeline projects, IMO this will occur over the through 08 as deals are being finalised and signed for regarding turbines and ownership.

In answer to the second question yes the costs probably could be further streamlined but as above i think given time the admin costs will return to normal levels and ECG's profitability enhanced.

G D Potts - 02 Dec 2007 16:05 - 33 of 44

RNS regarding RBS/ABN 's holding in ECG. Suggests large players think Econergy is going in the right direction.

I think we could see a move to profitability in early 08

(Updated the header with new projects)

G D Potts - 03 Dec 2007 17:19 - 34 of 44

Think the Agcert problems are reflecting on ECG's SP.

G D Potts - 18 Jan 2008 16:26 - 35 of 44

Fall in the SP is heavily overdone.
Shares are undervalued even compared to some of the other bargains around the market at the moment. Full years out in May. Expect news of One, perhaps 2 new projects coming online

G D Potts - 01 Feb 2008 09:52 - 36 of 44

Dresdner Kleinwort in a research note gave Econergy a 155p price target. "We feel the recent share price move is unwarranted and we retain our buy recommendation on the stock" - 14 Jan 08.
"Its historic misclassification as a carbon trader has led to underperformance and presents an attractive entry point"
"Econergy would have a portfolio of gross installed capacity of 1.5GW by 2015" - this is 1.6% of Brazil's current total installed capacity or 6.3% of Argentina's.
"Potential Exit strategy, Econergy could position its Latin American Assets for sale in 3-4 years.... average acquistion multiples have been around $2.5M per MW, on that basis Econergy could expect to recieve around $1.2 Billion in proceeds from a sale at this time (2011)"

Looking at that 1.2$ billion, we can get an idea of potential returns. $2 to 1 = 700million proceeds. 30% Tax = 210million. Net Proceeds = 490million.
Assume 40million new shares are issued in the period, this gives us 127million shares.
490'000'000 (Sale proceeds) / 127'000'000 (No.of Shares in Issue, Current 87million)
= 3.85 = 385p per share.

Current SP = 39p, Potential upside = 887%

G D Potts - 06 Feb 2008 13:25 - 37 of 44

Fitch anticipates that Brazil can, with sustained economic stability, gain Investment Grade status in the medium Term (Recently upgraded to BB+ from BB, just one notch below investment grade. Investment grade should imply lower borrowing costs, greater credit flows, lower capital flight risk and ultimately greater investment stability. Which will benefit ECG's projects in Brazil

G D Potts - 16 Feb 2008 12:52 - 38 of 44

Novera Energy is being taken over. Hopefully the same doesnt happen to ECG at this point. Results of May 12th will reveal operational status at Cambria and Considerable progress at Ariea Branca and Beberibe.

G D Potts - 16 Feb 2008 13:11 - 39 of 44

That Bid values Novera at 111,564,000
3.2x The value of Econergy.
Novera was planning to generate 250MW by 2011, Econergy Plans to deliver 207MW by Jan 2010. The results will give us a better idea if ECG can beat this projection, assuming they do, both will have 250MW by 2011. Given comparable market Cap's - ECG 34.8M NVE 111.564M, divide them by 250 (MW) we arrive at a value per MW of
ECG - 139,200
NVE - 446,256. A Massive difference of 307,056 Per MW, suggesting ECG is heavily undervalued.

G D Potts - 20 Feb 2008 22:58 - 40 of 44

Cambria is almost certainly now operating, as Clean Energy Generated (MWh) and
CO2 Emissions Avoided (MtCO2e) on the companies website are rising at a faster rate than usual

G D Potts - 10 Apr 2008 12:53 - 41 of 44

Daylight robbery if this deal goes through.
'The Trust [Tchenguiz Family Trust] has a high regard for the board, management and employees of Econergy, is supportive of the company's strategy and believes in its long-term potential. However, we believe that this potential can best be realised in the private sector,'

G D Potts - 11 Apr 2008 12:33 - 42 of 44

Good gag by Trading emissions

G D Potts - 12 Apr 2008 18:22 - 43 of 44

'Gus Hochschild, director of research at Dawnday Day Corporate Broking, estimated the company's power projects to be worth 116 million if they come to fruition and said the current share price was "absurdly low".
FT Today.
Lets hope the board are being advised in the same way and hold out for a 90p plus offer. Ideally, IMO, they would sell say a 15% stake in the company from a new issue to one of the parties looking at the company to provide working capital through 2010 when the shares should be worth much more.

I am not completely opposed to a merger with Trading Emissions as I believe the businesses would combine well, Trading Emissions cash pile I believe acting as boost to the number of projects ECG can take on, but on much better terms than their first derisory offer.
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