I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

Merrill Lynch reiterated its 'buy' advice on the stock, arguing that, in the context of the current market environment, "the dynamics of the BA investment case may not put the stock on everyone's radar screen for now. Nonetheless we remain of the view that BA will survive the current crisis and ultimately could be a beneficiary of the more consolidated industry, which might emerge." Merrill Lynch analysts are not reviewing their forecasts as yet, since the market situation is insufficiently clear and it will require an indication of the likely duration of the reduced capacity to provide any accurate quantification. "Suffice to say it is indicative of more challenging operating climate and thus the risks to estimates remains on the downside in the near term," they wrote in a note released after BA's announcement this morning.

In a statement released this morning, BA chief executive Rod Eddington commented that "there are clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times." "We are still assessing the impact on passenger demand but the industry has been feeling the effects of war for some weeks now. However, we are in good shape with more than 2 bln stg in cash and committed facilities available and we will survive this conflict," said Eddington. The airline said it plans to cut capacity by 4% in April and May and said it is accelerating its 13,000 manpower reduction target from March 2004 to Sept 2003, as well as extending the unpaid leave scheme for staff and reviewing all capex and external spend.

This looks interesting - I do hate the waiting around


ains






March 27, 2003

BA's London City debut offers new European option
By Malcolm Ginsberg TIMES



THERE will be an unprecedented choice of flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Glasgow for business travellers in London and the South East when British Airways begins operations from London City airport this weekend.
After spurning the Docklands runway for more than 15 years, BA plans to offer competitive fares rather than the business class rates traditionally associated with the airport.

BAs action means that the three prime European business destinations can now be reached from all five London airports City, Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton and all for less than 65 return (see box below).

The bold expansion at London City comes as BA is facing a slump in business traffic. Premium passenger numbers fell 14 per cent in February compared with the same month last year. Yesterday, BA also announced a further 4 per cent reduction in capacity in April and May, primarily on transatlantic routes.

London City has considerable advantages for those working in the City and it will be possible for businessmen, and those living in Central, East and South East London, to board an aircraft within an hour of leaving office or home.

With BA continuing to operate from Heathrow and Gatwick, an executive working in Canary Wharf who lives in Sussex will, for example, be able to depart from City and return to Gatwick for the same price as a London City return flight.

Passing through the Docklands airport is extremely quick, with check-in times as short as ten minutes and only a few yards to walk from the main hall to passport control and the departure lounge.

There is the added advantage of the valet parking service for 20 a day; drop off the car and it is less than two minutes to the check-in desk. The service is also available for incoming flights phone ahead and the car will be waiting.

At Heathrow it takes an average of 45 minutes to get through the formalities, and the journey out to the airport can be lengthy unless you live near Paddington to catch the Heathrow Express rail link. But Heathrow does have the biggest choice of flights to Paris, Frankfurt and Glasgow.

For many, Luton is the least convenient airport but it does offer the cheapest fares on easyJet routes to Paris and Glasgow. The airline also flies to Glasgow from Stansted.

FARES

Return to Paris, Charles de Gaulle (overnight midweek trip, booked three weeks ahead):


From London City:


64 (projected) with British Airways;
192 (current) with Air France

From Heathrow:

64 with British Airways; 62 with Air France

From Gatwick:


64 with British Airways

From Stansted:


60 with Buzz

From Luton

40 with easyjet


PARKING

Rates for 24 hours:


London City: 20 in executive car park, with free valet parking; 16 in main car park

Heathrow: 13.50 in long-term; 36.80 in short-term

Gatwick: 7.40 long-term; 16.70 short-term

Stansted: 10 in mid-stay; 15 in short-term

Luton: 12 in executive car park

* Long-term at Stansted is miles from the airport and at Luton is only available for stays of five days or longer. Advance booking discounts are available. Many hotels near the airports offer parking and accommodation deals.

March 27, 2003

BA cuts flights to save cash
By Russell Hotten



BRITISH AIRWAYS said yesterday that it is to accelerate plans for 3,000 job cuts and reduce capacity on its most important routesby 6 per cent.
The airlines chief executive, Rod Eddington, said BA had hit tough times and that conserving cash was now critical if the company was to survive the current crisis.

BA, which has shed 10,000 jobs since the September 11 terrorist attacks in America plunged the industry into recession, intended to cut another 3,000 by March next year. This is being brought forward to September.

The airline said there will be no compulsory redundancies, and that the losses can be achieved by natural turnover, reductions in overtime and unpaid leave for staff.

An overall cut in capacity of 4 per cent will be made in April and May, involving reduced frequencies and the use of smaller aircraft.

The 6 per cent capacity cuts in high-margin services to North America underlines concerns about the impact of war on customer and business confidence. Changes include suspending one of two daily London-Chicago flights and one of seven daily London-New York services.

BA said it would continue its suspension of flights to Kuwait and would reduce frequencies to Dubai, but that it would restore flights to Tel Aviv on Friday with a single daily service.

About 20 per cent of BAs capacity has already been taken out in the past two years, and these latest cuts are not as deep as other major European and American carriers.

Mr Eddington said: There are clearly tough times ahead and experience has shown us that conserving cash is critical at these times. We have had the opportunity to plan our response on this occasion and go into this downturn a leaner, fitter company.

BA has 1.8 billion in cash and 400 million in committed facilities, a cushion that analysts said put the airline in better financial health than some of its long-haul peers.

Amanda Forsyth, fund manager at Standard Life, which owns 2.4 per cent of the airline, said that by halting investment in new aircraft last year, BA had been able to store up cash.

That BA has been cash-flow positive for many months is stunning, she said. The company has already taken great swaths of capacity out of the network, and this puts BA in a strong position for when confidence returns.

In a research note, Merrill Lynch said that BA shares were a long-term buy, arguing that the airlines prudent cost-cutting meant it would do well after war was over.

BA forecast last week that it was still expecting to report a profit for this financial year. However, BAs debt is currently rated as junk, or below investment grade. The credit rating agencies Moodys and Standard & Poors each said last week that they may downgrade BAs credit rating.

Meanwhile, Air France said yesterday that it would cut capacity by 7 per cent by reducing services, but would maintain at least some flights to all its destinations.

The carrier said: In view of the deteriorating economic situation caused by the Middle East crisis, Air France is no longer certain of meeting its target of a higher operating income than last year.

The airline said its current plans assumed a gradual return to normal market conditions, similar to the trends seen after the first Gulf war and after the September 11 attacks in the United States.

In a few words rather than a million. BA is a short at the moment.

F

pity you are unable to trade then fugitive :-))


By Yvette Essen telegraph
(Filed: 29/03/2003)


War's shock waves hit airlines

Worries about a prolonged war created turbulence for airlines British Airways and Easyjet yesterday. They were among the leading FTSE 250 casualties, shedding 4 to 108.5p and 11.25 to 227.75p respectively.

BA, which has suspended flights to Kuwait and reduced services to Tel Aviv, Dubai and New York, was also rattled by a profits warning from Australia's Quantas, in which it holds an 18pc stake.

JP Morgan said it now expected BA to post a pre-tax loss of 100m for the year to March 2004, down from an estimated 25m profit. BA will post passenger traffic figures for March on Thursday.

Traders also noted that Easyjet is now running a one-week offer in which it will pay for UK government taxes on all flights. They said the promotion is an indication that people need encouragement to fly. Easyjet announces its traffic figures for this month on April 7.

Continued worries about a drawn-out war also rattled the wider market as the benchmark FTSE 100 slipped in early dealings. The leading index ended the day 20.6 lighter at 3708.5 - down 152.6 points, or 4pc on the week. As London closed, the Dow Jones had lost 13 points.

Property group Canary Wharf was the main blue-chip riser, recovering from its recent battering. It improved 5.25 to 151p - picking up from its all-time low.

Investors reacted positively to news that high-street retailer Marks & Spencer, 3 better at 289.25p, is launching a new menswear range in September. The clothing will be aimed at men over 35 years.

Next advanced 20.5 to 855.5p as Deutsche Bank upgraded the clothing store from hold to buy and upped its price target by 50p to 950p after its final results.

Outsourcing group Capita edged up 2.75 to 250.75p as it was given the green light to administer the second-largest pension scheme in the country. The contract with the Department for Education and Skills covers 1.4m members and is worth 62m over seven years.

Financials were once again out of favour. Friends Provident gave up 2.25 to 80.75p, Aviva shed 7.75 to 379.25p and Prudential eased 6.5 to 333p. Lloyds TSB dropped 6.5 to 333.5p and Alliance & Leicester went down 25 to 784p.

Mining stocks were under pressure as ABN Amro downgraded Anglo American, 28 lighter at 917p, and second-tier stock Lonmin, down 26.5 to 685p, from hold to reduce. The broker said it was worried about investing in companies with South African exposure.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 slipped 0.8 to 4016.3, down 79.3 or 2pc on the week. SkyePharma was the leading second-tier riser, advancing ahead of the pharmaceutical company's full-year results on Wednesday. Merrill Lynch reiterated its buy rating, saying it expects a modest profit for 2002. It climbed 4.5 to 47.25p.

Selfridges was lifted 8.5 to 242p on traders' gossip that Icelandic retailer Baugur is hoping to raise its 1pc stake in the department store.

Construction services group Carillion fell 9 to 121p on fears Network Rail will cancel further maintenance deals.

Elsewhere, London Forfaiting climbed 5 to 22.75p as the trade finance organisation crept back in the black, posting a pre-tax profit of 1.2m for 2002, up from a loss of 8.6m the previous year. Chairman Jack Wilson warned: "The Forfaiting trading environment in the current year does not differ markedly from that which persisted in 2002."

Civilian Content, the financer and distributor of films such as Michael Winterbottom's In This World, rose 0.50 to 2.37p. Crispin Barker, who moved from non-executive director to non-executive chairman on Thursday, bought 1m shares at 1.9p per share, increasing his holding to 25.4pc.

Devro, the sausage-skin maker, was .5 lighter at 59.5p, despite traders' chatter that Swiss investment vehicle Acomita is considering using its 14pc stake in the group to bid for the rest of the shares. They reckon Acomita is willing to pay up to 75p per share.

On Aim, Osborne & Little picked up from its 1993 low as the fabric and wallpaper company revealed it was in talks with certain directors interested in taking over the group. Bid hopes bumped the shares up 7.5 to 192.5p and more than offset the news that Osborne expects to make a pre-tax loss of about 200,000 for the year ending March 31.

Empire Interactive, the computer games developer and publisher, ticked up 0.62p to 3.62p as traders gossiped chairman Sir Rodney Walker had purchased 1m shares at 3.5p each, taking his stake in the company up to 1.2m shares.

LOL@AINSOPH - what a flake!!!

little "a",

thought it was Quantas that knocked it yesterday? But who cares, tis all the same at the moment. I can trade (rather well).

F

big F and little c

you seem to have more names than shares Fugitive ..... still on the run from your broker?

More names than BA shares - I won't deny it! ;-)))

However, I only have one name on the lower house.

Care to explain why I am on the run from my broker?

F

Not for me to explain your failings .... but clearly anyone who spends so much time slagging peeps as their sole means of researching a company is unlikely to be successful ...... as you already know :-))



Shares are coming back into range as talk of terrorism increases - and war success is delayed

ains





City Airport debuts for BA, Virgin
Robert Lea, Evening Standard 31 March 2003

RITISH Airways and Virgin Express are opening up another front in the bid to win back business travellers by today launching services for the first time from City Airport in Docklands.





BA is starting routes to the business centres of Paris and Frankfurt with plans in May to tap the burgeoning London-Scottish routes by opening up services to Glasgow.


Virgin Express, which has been out of the London market since losing its slots at Heathrow last autumn, is opening services to its Brussels base.


The carriers' decisions bolster City Airport's plans to more than double passenger numbers from the current 1.6m - stalled by the downturn in business travel - to four million by 2010 and to double that again to eight million by 2030.


The airport, though Britain's 10th busiest, is restricted in growth by the size of the aircraft it can handle as the runway is not long enough to take Boeing 737s, the 150-seater workhorse jetliners of the budget airlines.

ainsoph,

you plonker, why do you post this dross? Are you aware of what is happening to American Airlines/the tourist industry in general? Anyone would think from your posts that BA. is a buy. Buy it now you just hand your money to the shorters.

I am looking to buy BA. (if they survive), Lufthansa and TUI for the long term - but there's no hurry. Short in the meantime.

F

Fugitive says short @ two days ago ..... now 115p ...... nice one roflol


Looks like peeps are expecting something good in the figures


ains



BA And Virgin to Make Debuts at City Airport
Evening Standard - London
ROBERT LEA
March 31, 2003



BRITISH Airways and Virgin Express are opening up another front in the bid to win back business travellers by today launching services for the first time from City Airport in Docklands.

BA is starting routes to the business centres of Paris and Frankfurt with plans in May to tap the burgeoning London-Scottish routes by opening up services to Glasgow.

Virgin Express, which has been out of the London market since losing its slots at Heathrow last autumn, is opening services to its Brussels base.

The decisions by both carriers bolster City Airport's plans to more than double passenger numbers from the current 1.6 million - stalled by the downturn in business travel - up to four million by 2010 and to double that again to eight million by 2030.

The airport, though Britain's 10th busiest, is restricted in growth by the size of the aircraft it can handle as the runway-is not long enough to take Boeing 737s, the 150-seater workhorse jetliners of the budget airlines.

However, it is investing pounds 22 million in runway upgrades and airline parking stands to facilitate increased takeoff and landing capabilities for the 100-seater regional aircraft and turboprops that use it.

Moreover, access to the airport, currently limited to taxi and bus services, is set to be transformed when the construction of the Docklands Light Railway extension to the airport is finished in 2005.

Of BA's debut at City, the airport'smanaging director Richard Gooding said: "This is a prime example of how London City can address the current air capacity constraints at other airports by maximising the use of existing capacity here.

"Canary Wharf is home to over 55,000 office workers, estimated to grow to over 100,000 in the next few years.

Business and commerce is moving east, generating an increased demand for convenient air travel."

A spokesman for BA said the move to City supplements rather than replaces existing services from Heathrow.

"There is a very good catchment for business traffic and though we are seeing a downturn in the market as a whole at present we are taking the long-term view as far as our new relationship with City Airport goes," said a spokesman.

Virgin Express is opening up at City after losing its landing slots at Heathrow in October when its code-sharing Belgian partner SN Brussels sold its rights at the hub to British Airways.

The short-haul airline, which has now turned a profit in the past two years since turning itself into a low fares airline, has been out of the Brussels-London market since then. It is launching at City via a new code-share with another Belgian airline, VLM.

CITY AIRPORT will never be London's "fourth" airport - its annual volumes are but a fraction of Heathrow's and running at about 10% of Stansted's - but it is aiming to play a valuable niche role ferrying City business travellers on short-haul hops to major western European destinations. As a result it is likely to be an ever- appreciating asset for its controlling shareholder, the high- rolling Irish investor and gambler Dermot Desmond. He bought City Airport for pounds 23 million eight years ago and could make a substantial gain if he sells. Australian investment group Macquarie has been interested in increasing its exposure to the UK and European airports market but perhaps more likely would be a swoop by TBI, operator of Luton, Belfast and Cardiff airports. TBI is a buyer of assets and Desmond is well known to its board as he holds 5% of TBI's shares.

BA march load figures just out

BA hit by war and killer bug fears bbc news


Worries over the war in Iraq and the spread of the mystery pneumonia virus have hit passenger numbers at British Airways.
The carrier said passenger traffic in March was 11.4% down on the same period last year.

BA's load factor - which shows what proportion of available seats are filled - fell 6.6% to 69.2% compared with a year earlier.

The airline warned that the war and the virus, together with the weak global economy, meant its revenue outlook would remain uncertain.

Asia suffers

The spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) bug has meant bookings on routes to Asia have suffered.

The virus - which originated in Asia - has infected 2,300 people across 18 countries, and nearly 80 people have died.

Passenger numbers on BA's Asia/Pacific routes were down by a quarter on the same period last year.

"(Sars) has already affected bookings, in particular on Far East routes," BA said.

War impact

Last month BA said it was cutting flights by 4% in response to a drop in bookings caused by the war in Iraq.

"Revenue and forward bookings have been impacted by the threat and outbreak of war with Iraq. The reductions are in line with company expectations," BA said on Thursday.

"There is currently limited forward visibility on revenue and traffic, reflecting the war, economic uncertainty, competitor activity and the impact of Sars."

Passenger numbers to Africa and the Middle East were 15.1% lower than a year ago, in the UK and Europe they were down 3.4%, and traffic heading to the Americas fell 6.9%.

BA also said it had seen a big drop in the number of people travelling in first class and business class seats - so-called premium traffic.

The number of these passengers was 23.8% lower than in March 2002, while non-premium traffic was down by 9.2%.

Just to get BA's dire performance into some context:

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish no-frills airline Ryanair Holdings has said it carried 1.416 million passengers in March -- 39 percent up on the same month in 2002.
Ryanair RYA.I also said in a statement its passenger load factor -- an industry measure of how many seats were sold -- was 78 percent in March, down from 79 percent a year earlier.


Air travel is now public transport! If BA ran trains (heaven forbid) they would probably run 1st 2nd and 3rd class carriages with addittional executive class and buisness class seats of course. The novelty of riding on an empty train would not bring in the revenue but BA would still claim to be the best of British!

Not sure how you can compare the two ...... different markets and not in direct competition. There is always room in the market for someone to sell cheap and if that suits you - why not. I still prefer the to pay a little extra for service.

On long haul, for me at least (and it does depend on individual circumstances), Virgin are still winning over BA with me to the West Coast. I really do think that the BA marketing outfit need a grand kick up the backside. Virgin's service outpaces BA's. And I'm a time-served BA flyer of many years.

MM

Must admit I have never flown Virgin but someone found all the virgin trains cancelled earlier this week when they wanted to go to the Tads AGM

I note Capital Group have just added 2 million shares and now hold 76 million or just over 7%.

making some progress with the market this morning



ains

04/04/2003 10:57


ZURICH (Reuters) - British Airways Chief Executive Rod Eddington has said the airline industry is locked in its toughest crisis in living memory.

"There is no doubt about that," the chief executive of Europes largest carrier told Reuters, citing the weak economic outlook, the war in Iraq and the health scare over the deadly SARS virus.

Eddington, who is also chairman of the Association of European Airlines, said a decline in BA traffic in March was not unexpected, particularly at the top end of the market, as many businesses were advising executives to stay at home.

Eddington said BA would continue to monitor its own capacity and adjust it depending on market conditions. He was speaking on the sidelines of a business luncheon hosted by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce.

BA stock was up two percent at 1033 GMT, outperforming the FTSE 100 index of blue-chips which was up 0.7 percent.

BA reported on Wednesday a 11.4 percent fall in March passenger traffic from a year earlier, while premium ticket sales declined by almost a quarter, hurt by the war, cutthroat competition from low-cost rivals and the spreading SARS virus.

The war in Iraq forced BA last month to cut capacity by four percent, including the suspension of some flights to the United States, and speed up extensive job cuts.

Global airlines are making deeper cost cuts and stopping flights as the Iraq conflict casts a another shadow over a sector that was already reeling from the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 and sluggish economies.

German carrier Lufthansa said on Tuesday it too would stop some flights due to the Iraq war. Italian carrier Alitalia and Dutch airline KLM have also suspended routes to the Middle East.

BA -- which has the largest passenger capacity of any European airline -- said it would bring forward completion of a planned 13,000 job cuts to September this year from its previous March 2004 target.

It said the four percent capacity cut in April and May would involve reduced frequencies and the use of smaller aircraft. Capacity on high-margin transatlantic routes will be cut by six percent.

BA has cut capacity by about a fifth in the past two years. It has also cut capacity by 12 percent on its transatlantic routes, on which it relies heavily for high-margin revenues.


2003 Reuters

Up over double the general market intraday and ahead of US figures


04 Apr 2003 13:16 BST

BA chief says earnings guidance "impossible" now

ZURICH, April 4 (Reuters) - British Airways Plc BAY.L Chief Executive Rod Eddington told Reuters on Friday it was "impossible" to give any earnings guidance now in view of the uncertain environment airlies are facing.
He would not comment on how Europe's largest airline performed in its financial year ended on March 31.

Addressing a business luncheon hosted by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce, Eddington earlier on Friday said passenger traffic to Hong Kong had "plummeted" as a result of the potentially deadly SARS outbreak.

The company was building up "reserves to help us through very tough times", he added.

BA's focus was "not on admitting new members to Oneworld", he said when asked about Swiss flag carrier Swiss International Air Lines' SWIn.S chances of joining the alliance.