THREAD NOW CLOSED 3 May 2007

LATEST NEWS...(Check RNS service for details)

10/4/2007 - GME removes its minority interest in Patriot so shareholders enjoy 100% of all growth at Patriot
20/3/2007 - GME announces it will no longer support as NIM as non-core but instead focus on Patriot's US$123 order book
4/1/2007 - Cantor Fitgerald report 6.90% Holding
Decemebr - $31m orders reported
w/b 27/11 - Cantor buy >3%, Further order of $11m for rig packages
w/e 24/11 - Orders of $20m announced, but not profitable as expected
w/e 13/10 - Further $8m orders
w/e 27/09 - Further additions by Schroders to 12%
w/e 22/9 - Further orders of c $18m plus Gartmore stake increases to 20%.

Global Marine Energy plc is an Oil services company primarily bringing together and delivering rig component/equipment packages to international markets. GME is the holding company for two subsidiaries, Patriot Mechanical Handling and NIM engineering. Patriot provides the bulk of GME's sales.

GME is a niche player, there being only 1 or 2 alternatives for packaged equipment.
Patriot is a member of Source One drilling - a marketing alliance created by Le Tourneau Ellis Williams (LEWCO). www.source1drilling.com

Thread re-opened post results. Feel free to post away. News summary under picture.

Disclaimer: As always, Do Your Own research as no comments or foward looking statements posted here can be guaranteed.

This is an AIM listed company so high risk - only for investments you & your family can afford and are prepared to loose.



***Latest*** (also see estimated Share position analysis below @ 20 April 2006)
19 Sept - $9m from Brazil & America
14 Aug - GME announces $9m of orders including $1.2m NIM orders for Baker marine
These funded in part from recent raised capital.
11 Aug - GME delivers 11.2m stg (2005 4.76m). NIM issues notified in July addressed.
June - Cobra Ltd take large stake, a few previous buyers add
June - Placings at 15p
25 May - Paul Findlay promoted to Group CEO. S Wild (NIM subsid) off board.
10 May - PMHH signs up to http://www.source1drilling.com alliance
8 May - PMHH huge $8.6M china order+announces multiple chinese deals
5 May - PMH signs exclusive deal with winch company EMCE/Stokvis
4 May - Shroders increase to 11.16%
19 Apr - Shroders buy 10.10% 4,525,000
4 Apr - Gartmore adds stock now 17%, CAML buys 3.52%

I think you are a very wise Owl for topping up. Padley didn't say exactly when but you're probably right about 5thApril.

Owl

You got mail!

Chrissie
So have you :)

Well, not sure how bad is bad for 2005/06, but it does seem now to be behind us. As I wondered, a full order book does not necessarily translate into bookable revenues in the year in question.

Looking at next year's t'over of 20m on a gross margin of about 37.5% gives gross profit of 7.5m, less 5m oveheads and tax at 20%(?) leaves 1.6m net profit after tax. With approx 44,800,000 shares in issue at 19p, gives a forward PE of 5.32. If this should be nearer 10, rising to nearer 14 when the interim trading results prove the prospect, then the SP should nearly double over the next 6 months and then rise to somewhere approaching 50p by beginning of calendar 2007.

Assuming everything else remains equal . . .

sd

Stockdog/Chrissie & anyone else who look in here,
you must read the whole research note - it's excellent.

'Bad' means 12m not 13m rveneues. 12m's not bad - it's nearly 3x last year. But it gets better. 2007 is not 17m, it's 20m (previously we'd have to wait till 2008 for that!!), it gets even better (and this is my favorite line in the note.

'potential current multi year orders could rise sharply to 50m'.

This is not ramping, this is objective analysts who met Wood earlier this week and who live or die by the quality of their analysis.

All in all it's great news. They've been transparent by issuing early guidance (never before), they've announced early issue of results (never before) etc

Here's the link (you may need to sugn of free account):

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/

This may have been posted already but here is the link anyway:-

http://www.oil-barrel.com/advisers/hardman/GME_March06.pdf

Thanks Technotamed - great note. Reminds me of that song:-
Catch a falling knife
And put it in your pocket
Save it for a rainy day

Well it's raining and the ducks are loving it!

Looking ahead to 2008, somewhat prospectively rather than P2 as you might say.

Turnover 30m ??
Margin 40%
Gross profit after D&A 12m
Overhead/Net Interest, say 8m ??
Net profit 4m
Tax @ 30%
Profit after tax 2.8m
EPS 6.25p
EPS Growth 41%
PE 2 years forward 3.12
PEG 0.08

If reasonable PE 1 year forward is 14, then at EPS 4.41p for 2007, suggests an SP of 61p

If reasonable PE 2 years forward is 12, then at EPS 6.25p for 2008, suggests an SP of 75p

From 19.5p to 75p over two years is 96% p.a. compound growth. On a share that we now know so well, with a proven management that have turned it round into a profitable business selling into a ravenously growth market - that's good enough for me.

With my average buy price at 48p over the last year, I can't think of a better place for my money, or coincidentally where the emotions will be so satisfied.

Time to top up, if I can get in quick on Monday morning.

sd

All I need is another 60 days like today! Definitely feel as though bad days are behind us.

full price being paid now after more institutional buyin recently!

Long may it continue.
By my reckoning, there should be about 37m shares left.
Sounds a lot but free float on sector leader Abbot is 19M, and they're 16x the price, and 8x the p.e.

If GME gets to 60p, then on current order estimates ending Mch 06 it's PE is only 4.5!!
Goodness knows what it is now - about 0.9 I think - now that is cheap!

Well, I'm gonna take a break for the Spring. Nothing more to say really. Will pop back occasionally during late Spring. Managed to get average down to 36p - just 2.9p more than Woods 33.10p. 2005 is past, and (except for GME), I think it's been a 2nd profitable year.

Re GME, looks like upward momentum should ensue with so many insti's on board & now so few of us PI's - I can only see Barnard & possibly some Goldman clients selling under the 50p-60p mark, and Barnard is not really significant anymore - given Gartmore's huge 17%. We could see Noble also adding again soon, and even maybe UBS :-) . The chart looks like it could trend fast if we get past 30p - not many PI's to sell, and instis will hold long and far IMO..be surprised if less than 5x will do for them.

There's little chance of further placings given GME seem to have a rolling 'as needed' credit facility with RBS, and can use some of profit to finance new orders. The industry is extremely tight - absolutely no slack at all.

With 19m in orders & carry through of delayed sales+rising rig rates yet to be reflected, we will see profits at the interims (pretty definite), and for the following 2 years - no reason to doubt analysts, and Wood will want to see Sept 2007 75p options expire profitably.

Profitable co, PE of 4.5 at 61p - so I think very very cheap right now, and none of the potential reflected in the price!! Of course, lots of clever stuff could be done to raise the price too - e.g. with PMH OTC stock, further consolidations etc.

To me now at last GME/PMH really is a very worthwhile investment. I've even tipped it to a friend- only the second stock to have done that with in 4 years after SEO ...so I'm probably about 9 on the 0-10 scale of being bullish. Few other places I'd want to have a similar position right now...and I think I'd pay 1.10-1.20 to reflect 2007/2008 50m potential orders for this if offered. I think 2.50 would be too expensive though.

Good luck to all holders...we have all the odds on our side finally.

All IMO & DYOR

Owl

Thanks for all your posts and enjoy the nesting season - see you when they've hatched.

If you are a SEO and a GME man, you should also look at DGT - I'm sure you'd appreciate the fundamentals I have been posting on that thread recently.

sd

Oil sticking above $70 - should be good for GME/PMHH.
I'm hoping to build my SIPP soon as funds get in account.
Unfortunately takes days as trustees have to clear them first!

Oil now over $71 !

Schroders have bought 10.10%.

The situation is now about as follows:

GME Share Total 44,786,730 - A

Goldman (Noms) 5.28% 2,365,000 - Clients buy @ 22p-27p (still holding? - probably)
Gartmore 17% 7,612,498
Shroders 10.10% 4,525,000
MDB 3.68% 1,650,368
Amvescap 3.74% 1,660,000
P Wood 7.90% 3,537,683
UBS 4.47% 2,758,559
Noble 4.46% 2,000,000
CHI 3.72% 1.665,000
CAML 3.52% 1,575,000
Staff (Ex Wood) 0.5% 218,800

At 19 April, Total 'Fixed' = 64.37% = 29,567,908 - B

Est 10 PI's 25k Invested (100,000 shares) 1,000,000
PI's 100 PI's 10k Invested (40,000 shares) 4,000,000
-------------------
ASSUMED 'OPEN INTEREST' BY PI ~11% 5,000,000 - C


So A-(B+C) = 10,218,822 shares left !! - Only 23% of the company

Now there are 7MM's - leaves 1,459,832 per MM

(NB these figures DO NOT include Companies holding)

Guy's (& dolls), we're currently in a fabulous position after Schroders

Tomorrow will be interesting, think the news was after the bell today was it not ?.......nice thread owl :-)

Cheers, Spec - wondered where I was for a moment there ;)

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/market-research/people/25269/new-goals-for-wood.thtml

broker buy , 225k at full offer price :-)

Beat me to it Spec - 2 huge end of day buys.

L2 after hours trades - most not appearing on usual software.

These are trades & times after 4pm (as listed on L2- descending i.e. latest is first):

16:11 10,000 23.75 O
16:03 320,000 23.92 O
16:03 37,500 23.92 O
16:02 25,000 23.00 O
16:02 257,500 24.00 O
16:53 50,000 23.00 T
16:34 257,500 24.00 X
16:20 225,000 23.96 B
13:37 9279 22.65 O

Excellent! - something big has to be coming with 10 insti's in 3 months with no recent orders, and statement & analysts saying loss will be wider & sales a bit worse than expected. E.g Schroders - you just don't put 10% (over 1m) into an AIM company under those circumstances. Thats 10 insti's at least buying in 3 months - many well over 3% i.e. not even scaling in! Certainty or madness - if certainty, they won't want to wait till 2007/2008 results to see a reward IMO.