will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

Looking at the chart (with hindsight), instead of buying more at 14.1, I should have takne the breach of the 14p mid price support as a sell signal (however tough) on my 20p and 18p holdings. Then, if I still believed in the fundamentals (as I do, so long as they make some sales!) waited and watched for a strongly positive bit of news - like a major sell to a big airline, or a capital-free JV with a Chinese airline.

Just shows that averaging down can be very risky, as it certainly has been here. Had I sold at the 14p support-break (a 13p bid price) I would have been down 37% on 60% of what I hold now, equivalent to only losing 22% of 100% of what I hold now.

Again, looking at the chart and drawing a line from the low in April 2003 to the low in June 2004, its extrapolation to today shows we could go as low as 10p before we hit support again - that would be a 9p bid price - ouch!!! a further 10% loss, representing a 49% overall loss for me, compared to the 22% equivalent loss if I'd sold at the support-break.

However, with a piece of good news reversing the trend the upside potential before we hit the resistance line of the same long-term down channel could be as high as 34p. Well, you have to allow me a little optimism.

Anyone got a better plan for me than to continue to hold and hope?

yours as ever

Stop Loss - er, I mean Stock Dog

I got rid of these at 18p, having bought at 38p
I invested in Stanelco--a wise decision me thinks!!

Good move Keith.

BTW, just done a little analysis on the 37 stocks I've traded and/or still hold over the last 6.5 months, dividing them into 25% bands, ranging from loss of 25% or more up to gains over 175%. The pattern of distribution over these ranges is highly informative, as follows:-

+175-200% 1 stock
+75-100% 1 stock
+50-75% 3 stocks
+25-50% 3 stocks
+0-25% 8 stocks
-0-25% 15 stocks
-25-50% 5 stocks

20 lost/are losing = 54%; 17 won/are winning = 46%. That's a win/loss ratio of 0.85 - less than 50% success rate in picking stocks. However, the winners have gained 66% more than the losers have lost with a win/lose ratio, in money terms, of 1.66. My overall performance to date is 9.5% up, in a week when the market is gloomy in general.

My winners are up 23% on their capital, my losses are down 14% on theirs. Had I restricted my 5 losers in excess of 25% with strict stop losses, my money win/loss ratio I estimate would be nearer 2.40 and my overall return about 13.5% - about 50% more than actual.

The point of this slightly tedious arithmetic is to demonstrate that you make real money out of a few long-running winners as long as you stop short your losers.

Furthermore, all my larger losers, had I stop-lossed them at say 85% of the bid price at purchase (which gives a fair degree of freedom not to be stopped out through trivial dips in SP) could have been bought back into at a lower price after allowing both selling and re-buying dealing costs and spread, had I still had fundamental belief in them - which I do, that's why I still hold them. And the sooner you stop loss them, the truer this is, of course.

Just a little exercise to re-convince me to set and use stop losses without flinching rather than let the sentiment that we are all prone to allow me to keep holding "nice" stocks in spite of Mr Market's advice.

Hope this is useful to others who suffer similar inability in the selling department.

SD

So,you are going for a 15% stop loss,right?
Talking about big losses and what to do when the sp has crashed and one's holding has dwindled from thousands to hundreds of pounds(in my case the dreadful Wiggins transformed into the hateful Painstation/Planestation)because one stared mesmerised at the falling sp and seemed physically unable to sell;my answer is to forget the share and pay little attention to it,thereby avoiding constant recrimination and regrets.I don't check the chart,I do nothing other than calmly watch for a useful rns.
I am afraid that a share going bust is a possibility in the market.With Aerobox I think there is real potential...just needs the first decent contract...maybe Virgin...Branson is'nt stupid!Maybe Arab Emirates...these boxes don't get too hot,do they?
Don't give up hope and I think that guaranteed stop losses are essential in today's volatile market where the small caps are particularly subject to attack.

ethel
with a stop loss there is nothing to stop you buying in again lower after the SP has fallen. On the other hand, if it falls no further before rising sharply, then there is no reason not to take that as a good safe buying indicator to getback in again, albeit losing a few 's getting in and out and on the first bit of the new rise.

I think the stop loss should be the automaton bit, not ignoring the SP and reading RNS. But as we all know the St Loss is more sinned against than sinning.

SD

stockdog...your analysis very helpful as I also suffer from the same problem...however would any of your winners have been stoped? and if so are you sure to have bought in again?

keith...like you am still a ptg sufferer but being rather dim still hold a few and also like you am hoping to recover on seo...the persistent and continuing deramping of ptg is a matter of ammazement and has undoubtedly driven ptg almost over the brink.

Seem to be quite a few buys going through today, but no price movement yet.

titpton11 - sorry, no time to answer at length, but a) probably and b) who knows, once sold ones POV tends to change

SD

stockdog...thanks for reply

anyone heard anything?

proptrade - a lot of buying this afternoon in not bad volume, AGM coming up 20th May when they will need to be able to announce something interesting to keep shareholders' attention - hopefully at least a signed deal with a (solvent) US airline. If nothing good to say then will be further sell off, I guess.

Meanwhile, I do not expect any other news for the next month. I'm well into these, sitting on a very painful 48% loss. Should never have averaged down, except all the signals were there to do it the last time I bought at 14p which had been well established as a support level over time, also good prospects announced from a well-managed company and tipped (as still is) by RHPSG (Tom Bulford syas he has talked to FD and they are getting ready to announce US ariline deal and CEO has been in China discussing JV type deal. They are testing refrigerated units and exploring other industrial applications for the technology.

Maybe some/all these aspects will be given a positive announcement at AGM.

As to today's fall off in SP, seen nothing, heard nothing. Everything is looking almost like SEO except no new sales for the current year apparent yet. What is Pyramis without his Thisbe, or SEO without its ASDA, or ARX without a single sale?

What's your analysis?

SD

i have follows this stock for ages (from just over 20p) becuase i love the concept but just questioned the cash position and order flow issues.

i have maintained over this thread that i would rather miss the first 20%+ move with a decent order with confidence that the company is now viable and earning, than just wait and see if there is takeup.

I think this company has HUGE prospects but in the same way if they have no customers they will have no business.

cards on the table i think ARX will survive and thrive but i am not punting until i see the dealer deal out a couple of aces (or even one!)

plse keep me updated as usual
rgds
PT

decent buying today...various players involved.

Proptrade, thank you for supporting the position my head tells me is right - to save me from my heart that wants to buy more. You are a better man than me for not having been drawn in yet.

ARX is an almost perfect paradigm for me (as I have ranted on about before) but I do need to learn to maintain discipline not to go in any deeper until there is a definite prospect of sales. Roll on the AGM when I have great hopes of good news.

SD

SD,

stick with it. we have all made mistakes and will make more in the future. i have been burned and listened to my heart a few times but i also have a City background so usually, but not always, take a disciplined approach.

with all trading there are only TWO key variables when buying a stock:

1. discipline - pick a level for entry and exit and
2. risk management - trade with what you are prepared to lose and when doubling up, refer to point 1!

not teaching anyone how to suck eggs here but that is how i trade 90% of the time.

Rgds
PT

PT - the more eggs you suck the fewer you learn to break! Thanks for your advice.

I got in at the wrong level 20.75 and have averaged down twice at 18 and 14.1. Of course averaging down only makes it look good 'cos the average loss reduces as a %age, but your absolute loss is still there. When the SP goes back up you feel very clever, but the reality is that your losses would go back up anyway, so making you money from where you are really starting - at a reduced capital level.

So the averaging down in my view is not to do with making the averages look better. It's purely to do with wanting more stock in principle and getting it at a better price than the last lot. But the better price is sheer illusion, unless the first part is true - you want more anyway.

Having committed the level of funds I am happy with at not so bad an average price, there is no merit in buying more even at this low price, even if proved right. Much better not to risk more capital and take an opportunisitc dip in on a good bounce.

Guess who am I trying to convince? Is it working?

SD

Should I buy in at 10.25p or do you think more good news is needed... I respect that i have to do my own research but just a question for the experienced ones?

Sid,
I have followed this stock for two years or so, but never held. I once was hovering over the buy button at 39p when the Jabberman on another BB announced the price would be 50p next week, and I decided it wasn't a stock for me!

Sadly I was right, 39p was more or less the high point, and the price has fallen back since.

It's a shame, because I want to see the company, and product succeed.

To assist you in your reseach, I have posted a 1 year chart below.

Think I'll add it to my watch list and as Stockdog said... wait for upward trend!!!

sidtrix the chart is on a downward bender - with no visible sales this is one stock that could go under, although I do not think there is evidence yet that it will. So caution is required.

With the chart on a down bender with no visible means of support, is another reason to wait and watch, in spite of reassuring words from the FD to Tom Bulford on RHPSG.

As a small punt with at least a 2 year view it is probable you will come to no harm eventually. But as Andy says, if it is going to work and make ssales progress eventually, missing the first 20% rise from 10p will not be relevant within 6 months.

Wait for lift off on some positive news at the AGM, is my instinct still. If the price starts to rise noticeably immediately prior to AGM it might be worth a little toe in to catch the good news in the air that has probably leaked out from the AGM reports.

SD