The main activity of Biofuels is the large scale production and exploitation of biodiesel and glycerine following the construction and commissioning of the initial plant.

Biodiesel is produced from vegetable oils and, as an environmentally friendly product, can make a significant contribution towards reducing green house gases and meeting Kyoto targets.



RNS's from BFC can be viewed at:

http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/index?search_type=3&words=bfc&go.x=17&go.y=8

http://www.biofuelscorp.com/

At work earlier I checked the price of BFC on my phone with FT.com and the SP was 265p!!! What a shock I had when I checked on another site and it was 145p.
wilbs

There was a rouge trade that went through at 256. FT prices are always based on the last traded price.

WHATS GOING ON WITH THIS ONE NOW.

Not looking good at the moment, 100p soon!!!
wilbs

The lower they go the better the buying opportunity!

For the last 3 three days the buys have far outweighed the sells on this stock. I can only imagine that the MMs are mucking about with it.

I can't imagine the investors in the rights/placing at 230p are impressed having been sold a bullish story one month before that was shown to be - how shall I put it - optimistic? How strange it is that things go wrong so soon after a fund-raising but not before!

Tallsiii - you attribute too much power to market makers. A share goes down through weight of selling over time. There is so much uncertainty in the recent trading statement (like a lack of guaranteed customers for production hen it starts), I am not surprised people are selling. Also, the buy/sell ratios are meaningless when prices are moving fast.

Bones - I agree with the first part of your statement. BFC must have had an incling that there was going to be a delay before they sold a load more shares.

On the second part of the statement I have to say that you are missing what determines the price in a market like this. There is no SETS trading book, the only way you can buy a stock it to go to a market maker and the only way you can sell a stock again is though an MM. Therefore by definition the MMs decide at what price they will sell and buy at. If there are far more people buying from them and are selling to them, then they are being unreasonable in consistently moving the price down.

The fact is that either they know something we don't or they are playing games.

Tallsiii

Tallsiii - my point is that when a share falls fast in a day, there appears to be more buys than there actually is because the selling price is reported a few seconds or more late by which time the offer price has dropped. The algorithm picks the trade up as a buy. Sure MMs will sometimes try to manipulate prices at the micro level to stimulate some panicky sells but at the macro level the price is down for a very good reason. There is enough uncertainty with the share and the business outlook for me to think the price will likely fall further. Technically 100p looks like the next support after 140p went today.

I see your point Bones, some of the buys may actually be sells. Usually these happen when a big order is not booked until an hour after the trade has actually taken place. You can spot them by looking at the time of trade and checking the prices of other trades that went through at that time. 100 does look look like the next support level to me also, i'll probably be buying more at that level.

The fall is certainly overdone...dead cat bounce on the way.

Guardian: (7th May 2005)

"On Aim, Biofuels, which is building Europe's largest biodiesel plant on Teesside, fell 30.5p to 113.5p. Traders said a roadshow in the wake of last week's shock profits warning had not gone well. That is not surprising, given that shareholders coughed up 32m in a share placing at 230p barely two months ago."

So does it look good or bad for tomorrow?

BAD!!!!

I would not count the RNS of 29th April as a "profit warning", albeit a second announcement of delays, especially just after raising more money - always likely to cause depressed sentiment.

Did not know about the road show - that may have failed to impress, as reported.

I did not take this to mean more than 4 weeks loss of revenues in the current year - not significant over time.

wilbs - pull yourself together, man! although I also follow the theory of paradoxical intent.

Overall I'm with hlyeo98 on a significant bounce up, but against the background of the overall negative low caps market, it may be slower and lower than otherwise.

Up 1.5p so far this morning, against the market.

SD

Here's some light reading on Biodiesel.



The biodiesel production process
1. Extraction.
Rapeseed contains an average 40% oil content. 98-99% of this can be removed and utilised. The extraction of vegetable oils is a well-established industry.
There are two main processes for the extraction of vegetable oil.
(a) Mechanical Extraction using a series of presses.
(b) Mechanical extraction/solvent extraction - the mechanical extraction being an initial crushing process before removing oil in the solvent extraction process.
(a) Mechanical Extraction.
This is a process of mechanical separation of the oil from the oil seed. This process produces a crude oil and a cake meal, which contain approximately 10% of the oil content.
The seeds are firstly cleaned to remove stones and pieces of metal, which may be present. Once the seeds have been cleaned, they are broken open to aid in the mechanical extraction.
The prepared seeds are crushed under great pressures using a screw press, which causes the cells within the seed to rupture, allowing the release of the oil.
Depending on the intensity of the pressure 50-75% of the oil content can be removed by this method.
(b) Solvent Extraction.
This is a process where by a solvent (usually Hexane) is used to remove the oil. Prior to solvent extraction, most processes use a mechanical extraction process to remove around 20% of the oil content. The remaining cake is then fed into a solvent extractor on a moving bed. The solvent is sprayed over the cake in a counter-current clockwise stream and the oil is removed, as it is soluble in the solvent. The solution is then taken off and the solvent is distilled off leaving the crude oil. From this process around 1-2% oil content remains in the meal.
2. Refining.
Once the crude oil has been extracted, it then must go through a refining process. The impurities present in the oil need to be removed as they can effect the transesterification process. For example if there is a high percentage of phosphorous in the oil, then the methanol and oil could form an emulsion so strong that the process would have to be stopped and the product rejected. The process would then have to be restarted.
3. Degumming.
This process is used to remove the phospholipids, minerals, chlorophylls and colloidal proteins [ AAEOI using phosphoric acid. The phosphoric gums settle out, as they are denser and can be removed by centrifuging the solution.
4. Bleaching.
Bleaching is a process used to remove the colour pigments in the oil. These pigments are absorbed into the bleaching earth. The bleaching earth also removes trace metals, soaps and oxidation products
5. Neutralisation.
The addition of a alkali (Caustic Soda) in a centrifuge removes the free fatty acids. As well as this, the process also removes heavy metals, which would start the oxidation of the oil.
6. Esterification.
This is a chemical process where methanol is mixed with the refined oil to produce Rape Methyl Ester (RME) and glycerine. This process is carried out with the aid of a catalyst to speed up the reaction. Excess methanol/catalyst solution is used in this process to ensure all the oil is converted to esters. The oil and methanol are mixed at a ratio of 1 methanol to 10 of oil.
This is a slow process, which takes up to 8 hours under vigorous agitation. Once all the oil has been converted to RME/glycerine the separation can be carried out.
The methanol is then removed from the mixture by distillation. This methanol can then be recycled back into the process.
The remaining RME, glycerine mixture must then be separated. This can be carried out by simple use of gravity as the glycerine has a higher density than the RME. Alternatively, a centrifuge can be used to separate out the mixture.
The RME then needs to be washed with warm water to remove any catalyst or soap which may remain.
At this stage, the RME (Biodiesel) is around 98% pure, which can be used directly in diesel engines. If the Biodiesel does not meet required standards at this stage it may need to go through further purification in order to meet specification set by the engine manufacturers.
The esterification process can be carried out in one of two ways. It can be carried out in:
(a) Batches
Batch processing is a processing method where by a given amount of oil/methanol is put into the reactor. Once the reaction is complete the batch is moved on to the next stage and another batch is fed into the reactor.
Or
(b) Continuous
Continuous processing is a method where by a continuous flow of oil/methanol is fed into the reaction system and the reaction mixture is continually moving through the process reaction vessels.



Biodiesel economics
The principal variable cost in biodiesel production is the value of the the oil feedstock. In economic models developed by northeast biofuels costings have been based on the following assumptions:
Raw material 100% Oilseed Rape
Minimum till farm cost basis
Biodiesel plant local to diesel blending
Solvent extraction (<1% residual oil)
Rape meal into both feed and fuel
Refined glycerine
Plant depreciation over 15 years
10% Return on capital employed
Using these assumptions the cost of biodiesel at the pump is built up as follows:
Based on an oilseed rape ex-farm value (4 year average) of 142/te

Cost of refined oil (after extraction) 29.5 pence/litre
Cost of esterification 10.3 pence/litre
Duty (after 20pence/litre reduction) 27.1 pence/litre
Distribution costs 6.5 pence/litre
VAT 12.8 pence/litre
Total 86.2 pence/litre
Fossil diesel price (UK avg. April 2004) 78.1 pence/litre
Difference 8.1 pence/litre

wilbs

May 06, 2005
Asian Palm Oil for Euro Biodiesel

Reuters. Asian palm oil could supply up to 20% of the European Unions biodiesel needs by 2010, Pascal Cogels, the head of Fediol, the EUs vegetable oils federation, told Reuters.
The reason is price: palm oil is one of the least expensive vegetable oils.
The winners in that scenario would be Malaysia, which produces 45% of the worlds palm oil and Indonesia (39%).
The EU currently imports about 3.5 million tonnes of refined and crude palm oil every year, chiefly from those two countries.
A 20% share of biodiesel would mean between some 300,000 and 350,000 tonnes of additional palm oil imports, according to Fediol.
Rapeseed oil now makes up between 80%85% of the EU biodiesel.


wilbs

Let's say gross profit (before overheads, interest, depreciation, amortisation) needs to be at least 10% of cost price (+ VAT on this profit margin). So the selling price has to be 95.83p per litre.

So how do they plan to achieve this price, given the prevailing cost of mineral diesel? Is the latter likely to rise much? Can they reduce their costs by bulk processing? Should they run the numbers for jatropha beans?

As you were, permission to collapse in a puddle, Wilbs!

SD