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William Hill (WMH)     

rolling - 04 Nov 2003 14:05

Where do you think they will go to or should i sell now

Chris Carson - 17 Jan 2014 17:26 - 244 of 472

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=WMH&Si


Agree, needs to bounce sharpish or next support 340.0

goldfinger - 17 Jan 2014 21:00 - 245 of 472

Could be a double bottom Chris.......fingers crossed.

Chris Carson - 17 Jan 2014 22:14 - 246 of 472

It could be GF, then again Man U could win at Stamford Bridge on Sunday :O) Just don't know, if we did we would all be millionaires.

jimmy b - 18 Jan 2014 10:18 - 247 of 472

Bookies lost £25 million last week when all the favourites won in the premier league ,William Hill lost £13 million alone ,didn't help either.

goldfinger - 18 Jan 2014 10:44 - 248 of 472

ahhhhhhh look out Chris.

jimmy b - 18 Jan 2014 11:20 - 249 of 472

I still think this will bounce back at some point GF ,it just could be from a lower base ,time will tell.

david lucas - 20 Jan 2014 18:28 - 250 of 472

Do not hold WMH but it looks as though it may bounce from 360. Up a little today - 1.9p

Dil - 21 Jan 2014 02:47 - 251 of 472

It has the best online bookie site and is also best of the high street bookies.

It's it online Casino where it's lacking and this is the big growth area for bookies.

david lucas - 21 Jan 2014 08:36 - 252 of 472

That does explain the problem. If 360 does not hold 340 is the best 'bet' for a floor!

goldfinger - 21 Jan 2014 08:44 - 253 of 472

Pressure to regulate Fixed odd machines in shops is another reason SP as come under pressure. 50% of shop revenues!!!!!!!!.

Take them out and you have some serious cash to replace.

jimmy b - 21 Jan 2014 08:59 - 254 of 472

Going down again.

cynic - 21 Jan 2014 09:02 - 255 of 472

certainly the chart is now looking very ugly, and very undecided whether to cut and run or to sit out the storm

Chris Carson - 21 Jan 2014 09:44 - 256 of 472

340p looks nailed on, sticking with it though for now. Good stake building oppo in my opinion, there is more to this company than relying on gaming machines in high street outlets.

jimmy b - 21 Jan 2014 10:21 - 257 of 472

I read on one financial that its online business is worth £4 per share on it's own but i can't find it now .
Chris your right but it is a huge revenue for them some shops (i know) take more money through those machines than over the counter , if that law got through i think this would sink like a stone ,however i don't think it will get passed for now so watching for a lower entry and i'll be back in hopefully for the world cup.

halifax - 21 Jan 2014 10:28 - 258 of 472

alternative thinking suggests if the gamblers can't play the machines their money would revert to traditional bets.

cynic - 21 Jan 2014 10:35 - 259 of 472

doesn't the treasury get a big slab of tax from these machines?
that will be a good deterrent!

jimmy b - 21 Jan 2014 11:13 - 260 of 472

Exactly , and i'd like to see Millibands view if god forbid he was in .

HARRYCAT - 21 Jan 2014 11:47 - 261 of 472

JP Morgan comment:
Some restrictions on gaming machines are likely: Following the increased focus from the opposition on the issue of gaming machines regulation, we think that the government is now more likely to impose some restrictions. While there could be some protection for the industry (as a significant employer, and financial supporter of UK horse racing), we think that lobbying power is limited. Restrictions could come as early as spring 2014 (as the Prime Minister mentioned in the House of Commons), but are more likely to come in the autumn, after the outcome of the Responsible Gambling Trust’s study into the possible link between gaming machines and problem gambling is known.
We have analysed the impact of a restriction on maximum stakes. Campaigners against the machines often cite the amount that it is possible to lose on the machines (theoretically £300/minute, although this is often misrepresented). We see B2 game stakes (current max £100) as an easy target, not least as this could be done from within existing legislation. We have based our analysis on a reduction in the max stake to £20, which we think could reduce gaming machine revenue by 15%. Assuming some offset from "lost" revenue moving online, our scenario suggests 39% downside to our FY15 EPS forecast for LAD, 13% downside for WMH and a broadly neutral impact for PWL. Over time, we think that LAD and WMH could also have to close a significant proportion of their shops, as we think that the bottom 20% of the shops would be lossmaking in our scenario (vs. 10% currently), and a further 20% only marginally profitable.
Increased regulatory risk comes on top of existing industry headwinds: Slowing gaming machine growth is putting pressure on UK Retail profitability. After a decade of strong growth, gaming machines (50% of UK Retail revenue) are maturing. This is putting pressure on top line growth in UK Retail, (as OTC betting is in gentle decline) and so on per-shop profitability.
Intensifying competition in UK Online. Ahead of the planned change to a point of consumption (POC) tax on UK online gambling in Dec-14, competition is intensifying in this fragmented market as operators fight for scale. Affected by the transition from desktop to mobile, online gaming (c.50% of online revenue) also remains weak for many operators.
We now use sum-of-the-parts valuation: We now value LAD and WMH using SOTP (vs. PE previously), allowing us to isolate UK Retail from the rest of the businesses. We apply a 5.5x EBITDA multiple to UK Retail (in line with previous trough multiples), and a 14x multiple to Online. We also use our FY15 forecasts vs. FY14 previously. On this basis, our LAD price target moves to 95p (from 140p; we forecast a 19% fall in LAD’s EPS in FY15 vs. FY14). Our WMH price target moves to 340p (from 360p), both Jan-15 from Nov-14). We continue to value PWL on a PE basis, and our Jan-15 (was Nov-14) price target moves to €63 (from €59), based on a 25% PE premium to the gaming subsector and our FY15 forecasts."

david lucas - 21 Jan 2014 12:11 - 262 of 472

Good post Harrycat. Think it confirms the 340 level

Dil - 22 Jan 2014 02:34 - 263 of 472

Did well out of these but sold out and switched into online only operators.

Absolute crap compared to William Hill but thats where the growth is.

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