< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

cynic

Do you still hold now ? short term its a sell, long term
Kurdistan my turn out to be the best place to be ,, the Kurds and Turkey will protect the area and keep the oil flowing.

Anybody on here sold Afren today .

i sold some yesterday, merely to reduce exposure generally

I put a order in last nite to sell some at 145 , if it was 144 it might have been filled.

But this might start some buying, its what i had been thinking when i heard the first news from Iraq.


NigelWestM
12 Jun'14 - 09:27 - 358904 of 358905 1 0


This just in from Westhouse:

Yesterday all three stocks with material exposure to Kurdistan were materially down – Gulf Keystone (GKP LN, almost 9%), Genel (GENL, almost 7%) and Afren (AFR LN, almost 4-5%).

The reason for that was the fact that Sunni militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis, an extremist al-Qaeda splinter group), seized control of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the capital of the province of Nineveh, situated in an area that includes the supergiant Kirkuk oilfield (Iraq) and the fields of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The attack is a blow to Iraqi PM Maliki, who has been trying to form a new government after his Shia bloc won parliamentary elections in April. Mosul is the second city lost to the extremist group (in January it was Fallujah, a city just near Baghdad) and the attack highlighted the fact that Iraqi security forces are being outgunned by the Islamist militants.

According to Erbil (KRG) governor, tens of thousands of residents fled to the relatively stable Kurdish region to the north. Atheel al-Nujaifi, governor of Nineveh province, was forced to flee Mosul as well and he accused Iraqi troops of abandoning their posts.

Our view

Kurdistan, as opposed to Iraqi army, has a well-trained and well-armed forces, called Peshmerga, and it has always been much more efficient when it came to fighting extremists. It is estimated that Peshmerga has 270,000 to 370,000 fighters while Isis has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters. In our view, Kurdistan has an advantage now. Iraq will cooperate with Kurdish forces to retake Mosul from Isis, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said June 11, Reuters reported. Baghdad is facing the possibility of losing control of large swathes of western and northern Iraq and needs Peshmerga to avoid it. Isis may not be able to maintain its hold on Mosul in the end, but Kurdistan now has an advantage in negotiating on the legal dispute over the export of its crude. Kurdistan now has two tankers with oil, but no firm buyer yet. The reason there is no buyer is because oil traders were warned they may face potential legal action if they buy the Kurdish crude, after Iraq filed an arbitration case against Turkey with the International Chamber of Commerce. But the reality of things is that Iraq's Central government is weak internally and has too many security and social issues on its hands. With attacks from the extremists, it will need help from Peshmerga and this could be a bargaining chip for Kurds. KRG has been consistently moving towards independent export and in my view, will continue to do so. Hence, Buy all three stocks while the share prices are weak but keep in mind that we prefer AFR (Buy; 180p/share) for long-term holding and GKP (Neutral; 125p/share) for a short-term speculative trade as maintain my view that it faces operational challenges.

Iraqi Kurdish forces say they have taken full control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk as the army flees before an Islamist offensive nearby.

"The whole of Kirkuk has fallen into the hands of peshmerga," Kurdish spokesman Jabbar Yawar told Reuters. "No Iraq army remains in Kirkuk now."

With all this going on in Iraq , i would have thought with Afren having such a large investment in Kurdishstan there would be more comments on this thread

kurdistan is not AFR's main play

Didn't say it was , but it seems to be what is holding the price back and it is a large investment risk.

sp hasn't really moved very much in months, or at least it feels that way

http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2014/article/62634349

CEO suspended etc etc

have cut my losses and fast
thank goodness I slashed my holding a few weeks ago otherise that would have been very nasty instead of just ouch

Interesting , i wonder what that is about .

That price drop was a shock , here was i looking foreward to 160 plus

"Is this the next Tullow" - the title of the header - ha ha ha

It seems to be as Tullow now at what seems to be almost a five year low.
I have just had a punt on Afren - bought 40,000 at 110p - I recon the Company is the same basis Company, only the CEO and COO are corrupt - Not so unusual for Nigeria.
It should all come right again after throwing them out ? What do you guess ?

nigeria = corruption = CEO!

sorry to see you have dumped a further 10% since you bought

How high the bounce back ?

or, "What other nastiness to crawl out of the woodwork?"

If my fore-sight was as good as my hind-sight,
I would be a dammed- sight better off."

I have not done myself in yet over the 10% drop.

I remain hopeful of a recovery very soon.
Those who are forced or panic into making a deal will be soon be removed
from the scene, and things will settle on the basis of what the Company
is perceived to be worth.

You should all hold on for now I think - I hope

Company valuation has dropped about £500 million or about 33%, since yesterday
can that be justified ?

We need to throw out a couple of directors, who I thought were too greedy anyway,
and they will be replaced by more trustworthy directors.

Their director share options must have been hammered also !!

it's loss of market confidence that does the damage
on the other hand, it's not impossible that this will make the company more tempting as a t/o target, as at least they are producing a respectable amount of oil, even if less than predicted