I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

LOL@AINSOPH - what a flake!!!

little "a",

thought it was Quantas that knocked it yesterday? But who cares, tis all the same at the moment. I can trade (rather well).

F

big F and little c

you seem to have more names than shares Fugitive ..... still on the run from your broker?

More names than BA shares - I won't deny it! ;-)))

However, I only have one name on the lower house.

Care to explain why I am on the run from my broker?

F

Not for me to explain your failings .... but clearly anyone who spends so much time slagging peeps as their sole means of researching a company is unlikely to be successful ...... as you already know :-))



Shares are coming back into range as talk of terrorism increases - and war success is delayed

ains





City Airport debuts for BA, Virgin
Robert Lea, Evening Standard 31 March 2003

RITISH Airways and Virgin Express are opening up another front in the bid to win back business travellers by today launching services for the first time from City Airport in Docklands.





BA is starting routes to the business centres of Paris and Frankfurt with plans in May to tap the burgeoning London-Scottish routes by opening up services to Glasgow.


Virgin Express, which has been out of the London market since losing its slots at Heathrow last autumn, is opening services to its Brussels base.


The carriers' decisions bolster City Airport's plans to more than double passenger numbers from the current 1.6m - stalled by the downturn in business travel - to four million by 2010 and to double that again to eight million by 2030.


The airport, though Britain's 10th busiest, is restricted in growth by the size of the aircraft it can handle as the runway is not long enough to take Boeing 737s, the 150-seater workhorse jetliners of the budget airlines.

ainsoph,

you plonker, why do you post this dross? Are you aware of what is happening to American Airlines/the tourist industry in general? Anyone would think from your posts that BA. is a buy. Buy it now you just hand your money to the shorters.

I am looking to buy BA. (if they survive), Lufthansa and TUI for the long term - but there's no hurry. Short in the meantime.

F

Fugitive says short @ two days ago ..... now 115p ...... nice one roflol


Looks like peeps are expecting something good in the figures


ains



BA And Virgin to Make Debuts at City Airport
Evening Standard - London
ROBERT LEA
March 31, 2003



BRITISH Airways and Virgin Express are opening up another front in the bid to win back business travellers by today launching services for the first time from City Airport in Docklands.

BA is starting routes to the business centres of Paris and Frankfurt with plans in May to tap the burgeoning London-Scottish routes by opening up services to Glasgow.

Virgin Express, which has been out of the London market since losing its slots at Heathrow last autumn, is opening services to its Brussels base.

The decisions by both carriers bolster City Airport's plans to more than double passenger numbers from the current 1.6 million - stalled by the downturn in business travel - up to four million by 2010 and to double that again to eight million by 2030.

The airport, though Britain's 10th busiest, is restricted in growth by the size of the aircraft it can handle as the runway-is not long enough to take Boeing 737s, the 150-seater workhorse jetliners of the budget airlines.

However, it is investing pounds 22 million in runway upgrades and airline parking stands to facilitate increased takeoff and landing capabilities for the 100-seater regional aircraft and turboprops that use it.

Moreover, access to the airport, currently limited to taxi and bus services, is set to be transformed when the construction of the Docklands Light Railway extension to the airport is finished in 2005.

Of BA's debut at City, the airport'smanaging director Richard Gooding said: "This is a prime example of how London City can address the current air capacity constraints at other airports by maximising the use of existing capacity here.

"Canary Wharf is home to over 55,000 office workers, estimated to grow to over 100,000 in the next few years.

Business and commerce is moving east, generating an increased demand for convenient air travel."

A spokesman for BA said the move to City supplements rather than replaces existing services from Heathrow.

"There is a very good catchment for business traffic and though we are seeing a downturn in the market as a whole at present we are taking the long-term view as far as our new relationship with City Airport goes," said a spokesman.

Virgin Express is opening up at City after losing its landing slots at Heathrow in October when its code-sharing Belgian partner SN Brussels sold its rights at the hub to British Airways.

The short-haul airline, which has now turned a profit in the past two years since turning itself into a low fares airline, has been out of the Brussels-London market since then. It is launching at City via a new code-share with another Belgian airline, VLM.

CITY AIRPORT will never be London's "fourth" airport - its annual volumes are but a fraction of Heathrow's and running at about 10% of Stansted's - but it is aiming to play a valuable niche role ferrying City business travellers on short-haul hops to major western European destinations. As a result it is likely to be an ever- appreciating asset for its controlling shareholder, the high- rolling Irish investor and gambler Dermot Desmond. He bought City Airport for pounds 23 million eight years ago and could make a substantial gain if he sells. Australian investment group Macquarie has been interested in increasing its exposure to the UK and European airports market but perhaps more likely would be a swoop by TBI, operator of Luton, Belfast and Cardiff airports. TBI is a buyer of assets and Desmond is well known to its board as he holds 5% of TBI's shares.

BA march load figures just out

BA hit by war and killer bug fears bbc news


Worries over the war in Iraq and the spread of the mystery pneumonia virus have hit passenger numbers at British Airways.
The carrier said passenger traffic in March was 11.4% down on the same period last year.

BA's load factor - which shows what proportion of available seats are filled - fell 6.6% to 69.2% compared with a year earlier.

The airline warned that the war and the virus, together with the weak global economy, meant its revenue outlook would remain uncertain.

Asia suffers

The spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) bug has meant bookings on routes to Asia have suffered.

The virus - which originated in Asia - has infected 2,300 people across 18 countries, and nearly 80 people have died.

Passenger numbers on BA's Asia/Pacific routes were down by a quarter on the same period last year.

"(Sars) has already affected bookings, in particular on Far East routes," BA said.

War impact

Last month BA said it was cutting flights by 4% in response to a drop in bookings caused by the war in Iraq.

"Revenue and forward bookings have been impacted by the threat and outbreak of war with Iraq. The reductions are in line with company expectations," BA said on Thursday.

"There is currently limited forward visibility on revenue and traffic, reflecting the war, economic uncertainty, competitor activity and the impact of Sars."

Passenger numbers to Africa and the Middle East were 15.1% lower than a year ago, in the UK and Europe they were down 3.4%, and traffic heading to the Americas fell 6.9%.

BA also said it had seen a big drop in the number of people travelling in first class and business class seats - so-called premium traffic.

The number of these passengers was 23.8% lower than in March 2002, while non-premium traffic was down by 9.2%.

Just to get BA's dire performance into some context:

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish no-frills airline Ryanair Holdings has said it carried 1.416 million passengers in March -- 39 percent up on the same month in 2002.
Ryanair RYA.I also said in a statement its passenger load factor -- an industry measure of how many seats were sold -- was 78 percent in March, down from 79 percent a year earlier.


Air travel is now public transport! If BA ran trains (heaven forbid) they would probably run 1st 2nd and 3rd class carriages with addittional executive class and buisness class seats of course. The novelty of riding on an empty train would not bring in the revenue but BA would still claim to be the best of British!

Not sure how you can compare the two ...... different markets and not in direct competition. There is always room in the market for someone to sell cheap and if that suits you - why not. I still prefer the to pay a little extra for service.

On long haul, for me at least (and it does depend on individual circumstances), Virgin are still winning over BA with me to the West Coast. I really do think that the BA marketing outfit need a grand kick up the backside. Virgin's service outpaces BA's. And I'm a time-served BA flyer of many years.

MM

Must admit I have never flown Virgin but someone found all the virgin trains cancelled earlier this week when they wanted to go to the Tads AGM

I note Capital Group have just added 2 million shares and now hold 76 million or just over 7%.

making some progress with the market this morning



ains

04/04/2003 10:57


ZURICH (Reuters) - British Airways Chief Executive Rod Eddington has said the airline industry is locked in its toughest crisis in living memory.

"There is no doubt about that," the chief executive of Europes largest carrier told Reuters, citing the weak economic outlook, the war in Iraq and the health scare over the deadly SARS virus.

Eddington, who is also chairman of the Association of European Airlines, said a decline in BA traffic in March was not unexpected, particularly at the top end of the market, as many businesses were advising executives to stay at home.

Eddington said BA would continue to monitor its own capacity and adjust it depending on market conditions. He was speaking on the sidelines of a business luncheon hosted by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce.

BA stock was up two percent at 1033 GMT, outperforming the FTSE 100 index of blue-chips which was up 0.7 percent.

BA reported on Wednesday a 11.4 percent fall in March passenger traffic from a year earlier, while premium ticket sales declined by almost a quarter, hurt by the war, cutthroat competition from low-cost rivals and the spreading SARS virus.

The war in Iraq forced BA last month to cut capacity by four percent, including the suspension of some flights to the United States, and speed up extensive job cuts.

Global airlines are making deeper cost cuts and stopping flights as the Iraq conflict casts a another shadow over a sector that was already reeling from the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 and sluggish economies.

German carrier Lufthansa said on Tuesday it too would stop some flights due to the Iraq war. Italian carrier Alitalia and Dutch airline KLM have also suspended routes to the Middle East.

BA -- which has the largest passenger capacity of any European airline -- said it would bring forward completion of a planned 13,000 job cuts to September this year from its previous March 2004 target.

It said the four percent capacity cut in April and May would involve reduced frequencies and the use of smaller aircraft. Capacity on high-margin transatlantic routes will be cut by six percent.

BA has cut capacity by about a fifth in the past two years. It has also cut capacity by 12 percent on its transatlantic routes, on which it relies heavily for high-margin revenues.


2003 Reuters

Up over double the general market intraday and ahead of US figures


04 Apr 2003 13:16 BST

BA chief says earnings guidance "impossible" now

ZURICH, April 4 (Reuters) - British Airways Plc BAY.L Chief Executive Rod Eddington told Reuters on Friday it was "impossible" to give any earnings guidance now in view of the uncertain environment airlies are facing.
He would not comment on how Europe's largest airline performed in its financial year ended on March 31.

Addressing a business luncheon hosted by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce, Eddington earlier on Friday said passenger traffic to Hong Kong had "plummeted" as a result of the potentially deadly SARS outbreak.

The company was building up "reserves to help us through very tough times", he added.

BA's focus was "not on admitting new members to Oneworld", he said when asked about Swiss flag carrier Swiss International Air Lines' SWIn.S chances of joining the alliance.

April 05, 2003

BA chief attacks aid package for US carriers
By Abigail Rayner and Russell Hotten Times



ROD EDDINGTON, chief executive of British Airways, yesterday criticised a decision to allow a $3 billion (1.9 billion) aid package for US airlines.
He said that the aid for already heavily subsidised carriers would be difficult to accept at a time when the airline industry was suffering the worst crisis I have ever seen.

The US Congress has approved the aid to help the troubled airline industry to cope with a drop in bookings and a rise in fuel costs caused by the war against Iraq. The package was agreed despite protests from the White House.

The Administration called the aid excessive and is this week due to meet representatives of Congress to agree the final amount for the airlines.

Mr Eddington said aid may be acceptable to cover higher insurance and security costs but cash grants in North America are much more difficult to accept.

April 06, 2003

Flu forces BA to cut Hong Kong services
Michael Sheridan, Hong Kong and Dominic OConnell Sunday Times for full article



BRITISH AIRWAYS is today cutting its flights from London to Hong Kong in response to the deadly pneumonia virus that is devastating business and tourism in the former British colony. It is expected to cancel one daily flight from Heathrow. The second daily service will continue.
Traffic to Hong Kong had evaporated and the decision largely reflected operational changes to ensure that crew no longer had to stay overnight in the city, a spokesman said.

Andrew Clark
Saturday April 5, 2003
The Guardian

British Airways has "capped" sales of Concorde tickets at 50 out of the aircraft's 100 seats on many transatlantic services, so that it can offer first-class

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alternatives if the supersonic plane breaks down.
In a new blow to the aircraft's prestige, BA says it has taken half the tickets off the market for certain days because of concerns about the "robustness" of the service.

A spokesman said it explained reports of unusually low loads on recent flights. In some cases, Concorde has flown across the Atlantic with just a few dozen people on board.

BA has taken the emergency step while it only has two Concordes in service - just enough to run its once daily return schedule from Heathrow to New York. Three aircraft are out of action for last-minute work to fit reinforced cockpit doors. Under US regulations, explosive-proof doors must be fitted by April 9. This has proved difficult for Concorde, which needs specially designed equipment. BA revealed last week that it had axed eight flights between March 31 and April 13 while the work is completed.

Concorde has been dogged by recent technical problems. Last month, a supersonic jet with the comedian Bob Monkhouse aboard was grounded in Barbados after two failed take-offs. On several occasions, parts of the plane's rudder have come adrift.

Passengers, who typically pay 6,800 for a return transatlantic flight, are offered first-class seats on BA's jumbo jets when Concorde flights are aborted. However, this could prove difficult as BA recently cut back its schedule for standard flights to New York.

BA is "reviewing" its Concorde services to decide whether to bring forward the supersonic fleet's scheduled retirement in 2009 due to weak demand.

BA changed Concorde's timetable this week, making flights later in the day to attract more business customers. The new schedule allows corporate bosses to do a day's work in London or New York before boarding a flight. However, industry sources say cabin crew are unhappy because Concorde arrives in New York in the early evening, then departs early the next morning - leaving them no time for shopping.

"BA changed Concorde's timetable this week, making flights later in the day to attract more business customers. The new schedule allows corporate bosses to do a day's work in London or New York before boarding a flight. However, industry sources say cabin crew are unhappy because Concorde arrives in New York in the early evening, then departs early the next morning - leaving them no time for shopping."

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Well it took BA some time to realise they should provide services when the punters need them! ;)

Anothe war casualty in waiting, if any bad news arrives, I see a good trade when the price drops back to 108p or so, watch out for any news on civil airliner damage in the wars progression, this is very volatile, and could drop 20% easily if this happens.I don`t short them.