The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Your right Kivver ,no one knows ,look at the last 2 days ,you can try and trade this all you like ,but it will be luck more than judgement if you keep getting it right.

I've been trying out a "demo CFD" service, where you get some play money to trade with, as I wanted to see if I'd be any good at trading (as oppossed to investing). Very scary. Good job it was only play money. It was an eye opener though, as to where all this volatility is coming from, and does nothing but highlight my fears of much much worse to come.....

Strawbs.

Knees up, Mother Brown.
Knees up, Mother Brown.
Knees up, Knees up,
Better get your knees up,
Knees up, Mother Brown.

Sorry, got to do something for my spirits upon seeing all this red. Would it make everyone feel better if I made a cup of tea?

Please. No sugar. ;-)

Biscuit as well, Strawbs?

Hmmm. Better watch my waistline.......get larger.

Got any custard creams...... :-)

Theres going to be a lot lost to the market strawbs.

A lot of these youngsters who come in with a TA manual and a CFD or SB account will have been hit very hard, and will no longer have the will to function on the markets.

Credit in the market place is exaggerating the falls.

Custard creams very difficult to get hold of in Germany, Strawbs.

Although they do have a circular, chocolate-filled affair called "Prinzen" (= princes), marketed under a slogan which translates to "Princes come further". The mind boggles . . .

Yep. That has worried me since I started looking at CFD's and spread bets. I liked the idea of being able to short, but decided both vechiles where too risky for me. Given that most people chase "bargains" because previous news has pushed prices rapidly higher, I suspect many have lost on certain trades, and have gambled on the "former darlings" making the money back. In a bull market, that should work. In a bear one, it's a very risky stratergy. I've no doubt people will buy with leverage in this drop, and will see the prices recover slightly, only to hold on and see them all drop rapidly again.

Strawbs.

Sigh. No custard creams Soul! This market is very depressing.

Got any cake?

Goldfinger (apologies, time to get serious!), good point. I'm interested that Strawbs' sentiments have been proven right - there's a big shake-out going on and I'm guessing that the signs are bearish for the rest of the summer at least.

Not that that observation makes me an investment guru or anything. Am just glad I'm sitting on some cash, and wishing it was more, because at present my wealth projections for the end of the year are looking very forlorn!

Chocolate marble cake okay for you Strawbs? (I see I couldn't tempt you with the Princes!) There were some muffins, but I had to stuff the last one into my mouth whole to prevent screaming when I saw the FTSE red-lining it!

These things are cyclical soul. Things may be rough for a while, maybe even a year or two, but you can be sure that at some point things will turn around.

Strawbs.

Chocolate cake........mmmmmmm.....arghghghghgh (In a Homer Simpson style)....

I'll have to come to this tea shop more often!

You're right, Strawbs. I'm coming across as desperate mostly for the humour value; (for which I suspect no-one will thank me :o)) but in truth I'm looking forward to going bargain-hunting at the right moment because my small oilers and similar are still all primed to do very nicely in the coming year or so, and if I can sell some high and buy back in much cheaper then I guess I'm a happy Trader.

What strikes me is that there appears to be a lot of pre-emptive selling (credit again to Goldfinger for sowing the thought), as you wouldn't ordinarily get this much movement on an oil-price change of just $1 or so. Okay, so it's the interest rates as well, but the tiddlers I'm investing in are the ones taking the worst battering when they still have the most to gain from high oil prices, even if crude goes to $40. I'd be far more worried if I had shares in BP and general blue-chip stocks as they carry the bigger down-side risks, but as usual it's not about risk but about the market's perception of risk.

Fortune will favour the brave and the patient.

I'm sure plenty of people are in the same boat. Not sure when it'll be safe to go bargain hunting. It's very difficult to trust this market at the moment. Just when you think a shares reached the bottom......it falls further. Given that much of a price support is down to sentiment, I'd look at the price charts. If the price is trending down (as VOG appears to be), I'd avoid, at least until a sustained period of flat lining. Everyone tends to think that a "bargain" is only there for that moment and they have to buy there and then. I've found that patience is often rewarded by waiting to see the trend, rather than buy straight away. Good luck with bargain hunting.

Strawbs.

Good points, Strawbs. My theory is I'll know a good buy when I see it (I've been right before, sometimes!), but will let this be influenced by taking the temperature of the market, charting, etc.

I'd be inclined to wait through the summer, though, simply because I can't see the turn-around coming that quickly, and even if things do start to look more positive this side of the holiday season, I think it'll take a while for confidence to return, which again takes us into September. At the earliest. If Bernanke keeps flapping his gums indiscreetly to every floozie with a Dictaphone, then we'd probably all be better off playing the binary betting game for a while.

EDIT. Right now is a good chance to get my head down, do some research on what people are saying is hot and see how it all comes out in the wash.

Actually small caps will probably do worse than large caps in a bear market. The main reason is that small caps are generally "one trick ponies". e.g. They could do really really well, if they strike oil (or whatever market they are in), but they could fall flat on their face if it goes wrong. Large caps have lots of diversity. One piece of bad news will only make a small dent in the overall prospects. Of course you won't get rich quick with large caps, but you won't (shouldn't) get poor quick either. Remember that "bear" and "bull" are sentiment indicators. Bulls are happy to take lots of risks with their money, so markets (particularly small caps) are generally over valued on the chance of some good news. The bulls will also stay invested, on the "hope" of better news if something slightly fails to meet expectations. e.g. Missed RNS, late drilling results. etc. Bears don't like taking risk, so money is pulled out of high risk, and switched into defensive plays. Remember too that market makers (who must buy the shares) don't like risk. Holding lots of shares is risky, so in a falling market, prices are marked down quicker than in a rising market (bescause they don't know when they'll get rid of them).

Strawbs.

Don't think anyone can blame Bernanke particularly. He will have far more facts, advisors and computer models on the state and direction of the economy (US and globally) than all of us. Probably better to have a few alarm bells now to slow things down, rather than suddenly falling off a cliff later.

Strawbs.