cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
Falcothou
- 09 Sep 2008 08:14
- 2470 of 21973
On the other hand Asia is not convinced
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 08:16
- 2471 of 21973
And London can't make up it's mind,. I'm with Asia today.
cynic
- 09 Sep 2008 08:24
- 2472 of 21973
FT seems to think that on balance this was a "good move" and reaction from China and Japan g'ments was actually pretty positive ..... I expect today to be pretty quiet while ther is further reflection and also to see how NY performs
Falcothou
- 09 Sep 2008 08:49
- 2473 of 21973
I know that history rarely consistently repeats itself but in this current era of uncertainty it seems to have been quite a good bet to short the dow at the close after it has had a big rally and then close out at the open . For example last night it would have been worth 50 points,this probably has even more relevance when it closes at resistance e.g. around 11750
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 09:05
- 2474 of 21973
FTSE seems to be leading the pack this morning, now up to 5512, the problem is no one else seems to be following, with DAX only slightly up and DOW futures slightly down.
This still feels like a relief rally to me, with so much negative news being released, and more to come, reality will return.
stroreysj
- 09 Sep 2008 09:26
- 2475 of 21973
scared the poo out of me so closed out at a small loss. (Definately learning as would have ridden it out in the old days) waiting patiently for another opportunity to short
HARRYCAT
- 09 Sep 2008 10:00
- 2476 of 21973
Slightly off topic, but after monday's fiasco & the subsequent conspiracy theories, the following just goes to show how easy it is for one piece of information to sway people's thinking:
"The Florida Sun-Sentinel was to blame after accidentally re-publishing a six year-old story from parent paper the Chicago Tribune, stating that after 76 years in the air UAL had filed for bankruptcy. The United share price went from $12 to 1c at one point.
United did indeed file for bankruptcy protection - back in December 2002. It emerged from Chapter 11 in 2006, but soon got back to its loss-making ways - chalking up a $2.7bn deficit in the second quarter of this year alone.
Perhaps it is understandable that investors jumped to the conclusion that this airline was bust.
An old rule of financial regulation says that the authorities should not seek to protect a fool from losing his or her money, but should stop a reasonable person from being made to look a fool.
Idiot market participants are at fault here - not the hapless website operative that pressed the wrong button."
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 20:29
- 2477 of 21973
How quickly sentiment can change, the DOW is down 200 points now with worrys over Lehman Bro now down 40% lower, a refinancing deal with a Korean Investment Bank has fallen through and Standard and poor has put Lehman on a credit watch. The Fed can't rescue all the major banks. Also I noticed a news release today saying new house builds in America had fallen again, it was only last week that I heard reports saying that maybe America had now seen the worse of the housing downturn. Now reports are saying that the housing crises could be far from over.
Sorry to be so gloomy, but tomorrow looks like it could be a very bumpy ride on the FTSE.
Earlier today I was thinking of cashing in my bank shares, and re-purchasing lower down, it looks like I may have missed this opportunity now.
Good luck for tomorrow..............
cynic
- 09 Sep 2008 20:33
- 2478 of 21973
am currently short Dow but just banked porfit in half at 11300 ..... now wating to see iof that level holds .... if not, shall short further ......have also gone short ASC, excellent company though it is as i think sp has got far far too ahead of the game .... shall be looking for others tomorrow
cynic
- 09 Sep 2008 20:52
- 2479 of 21973
just shorted FTSE for the morrow, though already indicating -65
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 20:59
- 2480 of 21973
So you shorted at 5350 Cynic. Should prove profitable.
I will be looking to short, but will wait till after open.
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 21:01
- 2481 of 21973
I'm useless at shorting individuel companies, but some of the house builders look tempting after recent rally.
spitfire43
- 09 Sep 2008 21:38
- 2482 of 21973
Take a look at the FTSE 10 year chart below, and compare the last bear market to where we are today. Unfortunately I cant over write the bear channel onto this basic graph.
First the last bear market started at the second highest peak in October 2000, and bottomed in February 2003 = 2 years 9 months.
If you draw a bear channel using lower lows and lower highs, you will see that recovery would only be confirmed in November 2003 with a break of the higher bear channel at 4200.
This bear market started at the second highest peak in November 2007, and we are 10 Month's into this one.
If you were to draw a bear channel from this peak, I believe that to confirm a positive breakout of the upper trend line today would require the FTSE to first pass the 6000 level, which would confirm the end of this bear market.
I don't think we will see the lows of the early 2000 bear market, but I feel we still have further to go. I'm planning for a bottom either at the end of this year, or very earlier next year, in the mid 4500s. I can't back this timeframe or figure up with certainty, it's just my opinion. DYOR etc.............
maddoctor
- 09 Sep 2008 21:43
- 2483 of 21973
surprised you lot are bothering , CERN are going to destroy the Universe at 8am in the morning!
Stan
- 09 Sep 2008 21:50
- 2484 of 21973
Wana bet -):
Falcothou
- 09 Sep 2008 22:02
- 2485 of 21973
Mr. Denninger isn't too keen on commercial property at the moment Spitfire...
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Strawbs
- 09 Sep 2008 22:50
- 2486 of 21973
"CERN are going to destroy the Universe at 8am in the morning"
Should make a lively start to trading then.....
Strawbs
stroreysj
- 10 Sep 2008 06:35
- 2487 of 21973
looks like some of you guys jumped the gun last night. Like Cynic banked about half of the fall yesterday and sat back waiting for further direction. Having said that the market is setting itself up for a great shorting opportunity so will just sit on my hands a little longer and then its candy from a baby
dealerdear
- 10 Sep 2008 07:34
- 2488 of 21973
CNBC have just reported that someone is taking a stake in Lehman's and the FTSE is now only opening 20 points down with the US futures soaring.
BE careful out there cause these are wicked markets!
cynic
- 10 Sep 2008 07:43
- 2489 of 21973
set stop loss on final half of Dow o'night which was hit, but left even that part with a nice profit of 100 pts too ...... FTSE short open and showing about 40 pt loss at mo