Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 09 May 2013 09:08 - 24830 of 24858

YEP but were talking RELATIVE here Hays. From 8% to 11%.
Haystack - 09 May 2013 09:15 - 24831 of 24858

If the poll is wrong then what it is relative to is not important. Their polling numbers are often tiny as their signed up population get bored. They also cannot do demographically random
selections.
goldfinger - 09 May 2013 09:19 - 24832 of 24858

Sigh....... I give up.






lol , ffs Haystack by your own logic it's still a valid swing.

over 100 TORY MPs are now concerned about their jobs and are turning on the cabinet .
they want to now ignore the libs protests ,
and start to bring in tory policys and pull out of human rights
and stop immigration from the eu
watch the big moves soon or they will join UKIP

only 18 months till the election campaign starts . ukip will get a lot of MPs
the new beginning in the uk .
CAMERON AND THE LIAR OSBORNE have fcuked up the party to a CON PARTY

takeaways have over 2.2 million illegals sleeping on the floors at night
it is time to round them up and deport them get the planes ready

Anyone see the interview with Nutty Nadine yesterday.

Given back the whip but couldnt bring herself to say she supported the 2 posh boys, laughable interview.

Wont be long before shes in bed with Nigel. Nigel Farage that is, so many Nigels at the moment in the news.

There you are Tanker.

From no less than "The Times

David Cameron was forced to admit that the Government was issuing contradictory orders to the banking sector even as he pledged to end the remorseless “bashing” of the City. The Prime Minister told an investment conference in London that he wanted Britain to play to its strengths by defending its banking sector, amid fears over tougher Brussels regulations including a cap on bonuses and a mooted tax on financial transactions, according to The Times.


Seems like I will say anything to stay in "power".

.

fred i agree with is comments on the banks .
it is lack of force to get these immigrants out
is why we are switching to UKIP wewant immgration stopped
and deport illegals and get rid of HUMAN rights for criminals because human rights is only for criminals not good honest humans

Tanker,

Don't blow a fuse, for if you need emergency admission through A and E into the "safe in our hands" NHS hospital, you will only need to make an appointment 3 weeks before the event.

Three years into their tenure, Cameron, Osborne and his crew are still pressing the destruct buttons.

The public are paying their management fees for destroying the NHS.

Many at the election will see this government's successes and vote UKIP as a justifiable revolt.

fre agree on your post about the NHS but when we have got rid of 6 million
immigrants it will improve the doctors and hospitals re full of the scum coming here for free health and pay fck all in to the system .
get rid of the scum and the water will be clean .

Misquoting, somebody or other.


"Cameron is fatally stabbed, staggering round the stage in his death throes.The government is in its death throes."



------------

Tanker,

If your "migrants" go home, the NHS would collapse.

From experiences of many, many of the most diligent doctors, nurses and auxiliary staff are the immigrants.

The migrants often filling roles which many of the indigenous population feel beneath them, or they are not prepared to do.
======

Much of the ranting of UKIP and Looney tory right wing does not have basis in fact and is used as a diversion by the Con party from the real problems of the UK and their own problems.

Like in the 1930-40 they are practising populist ideas and scapegoatism. The present tory party, really is the Nasty Party.

Dil
Get some stastical education. You can't measure a % change from something that is unreliable to start with. The error factor for good polls is quite high. For unreliable polls is would be unknown and probably higher than any perceived swing. If I came up with a guess of a % of something as 20% and later my guess was 25% then all you know is they were two guesses and nothing else.

Hays, disagree completly. The 2 polls were only 3 days apart are you saying those people polled were changed significanly ........... I dont agree.

Relatively speaking we saw a 37.5% swing to labour.

The queens speech was a let down even a lot of torries say the same.

lol thats crap Haystack.

If the basis of the two polls is the same then any movement is valid.

Queen needs a new speech writer imo.

fred your post is bollocks i know quite a few who have very good degrees
and cant even get interviews ,the managers wo are immigrants only interview
fellow immigrants and run it for their friends .
the same has on friut farms do not employ brittish people it is all under the counter
and time for investigations to happen and check this out which is FACT

They don't use the same set of people to see of their views have changes. That means they have to select a new population. That means a new unreliable poll from scratch. I am signed up to YouGov and I don't get repeat polls asking about change of views on polls that I have previously filled in. The polls were unreliable partly because they only use people who sign up to be polled. You can't get reliable results from self selected populations.

Not disputing the reliabilty of the selection process or the reliability of the result but this wouldn't invalidate a swing.

Of course it would. It wouldn't even be a swing. It would just be two different sets of data with no connection between them. To calculate a swing, you have to be sure that the two populations are statistically representative of the general population regarding their demographics.

It would be like comparing the results of two biased dice. The results are only internally consistent within the results for each of the dice. the results would show you how the dice differed but nothing about the real odds of good dice. If I get a 6 half the time with one die and then get a 6 three quartets of the time with the other die, is that a swing?

If you reinterviewed the same set of people the second time them you might measure a swing. However, the result might have little actual meaning if the selected group were not representative of the general population. For instance if I interviewed, for a poll, only members of the Socialist Workers Party, I could measure a swing in their views if I then reinterviewed the same people. But their views are not representative of the general population.