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11.07.2006
Rockhopper Exploration Gets Some Encouraging Preliminary Results from Its Controlled Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) Survey On Its Falkland Acreage
Rockhopper Exploration together with Desire Petroleum, Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) and Borders and Southern feel that explorers in 1998 were premature in turning their backs on one of the last major untapped oil and gas provinces in the world: namely the Falkland Islands.
Like Desire, which was involved in the 1998 campaign, Rockhopper feels the Falklands are worth another crack. Although it is a long haul between acquiring acreage and drilling for oil, Rockhopper, which is having its first shot at finding oil in this remotest of regions, has received good news about one of the steps on the way in that the preliminary results from a Controlled Source Electromagnetic Survey (CSEM) have proved encouraging.
Unlike Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL), which is probing in virgin territory in the South Falklands Basin, Rockhopper has set up in the North Falklands Basin, which proved such a disappointment and put a dampener on further exploration for eight years.
There were great hopes for the drilling in 1998. Six wells were drilled back-to-back with Desire having interests in two wells. As Rockhopper and others like to point out, these wells were far from a complete disaster. The North Falklands Basin stretches 250 km from north to south and the wells drilled there all looked the same kind of play concept. Of the six only one failed to find any indication of oil and gas and was never logged. The most exciting well was Shells test of the Fitzroy structure with well 14/10 which recovered live oil to the surface of 27 degree API. Another well, 14/5, also drilled by Shell, had 32 per cent gas at the surface.
For one reason and another, the wells were never tested. Because they were drilled back-to-back there was not time for proper evaluation. The wells were drilled by the majors Shell and Amerada and these have to compete internally for scarce rigs. Why drill in expensive out of the way places when you are on to a better bet with assets in, say, the Gulf of Mexico? Matters were not helped, of course, when in 1998 the oil price had fallen to US$10 a barrel. This made it barely economic to drill for oil anywhere never mind such a high cost/high risk area.
The situation is different now. With oil at US$70 a barrel the economics have been transformed. Explorers believe the source rock regional seal where the wells were drilled prevented upward migration of hydrocarbons. High quality seismic was needed to define traps at deeper levels in the source rock.
Rockhopper, which joined Londons AIM in August 2005, owns 100 per cent of four offshore licences, covering 5,800 sq km of the North Falkland Basin. These are PL023, 024, 032 and 033.
Rockhopper believes the 1998 explorers did indeed target the wrong play type. Recently the company signed up leading seismic contractor CGG Marine to shoot a 3D seismic survey over two of its licences PL032 and PL033. The 685 sq km survey is due to get underway in December and is designed to provide further data on a number of promising leads.
Before the 3D seismic, however, there are other steps which can be taken, notably 2D seismic. Rockhopper has taken on a new tool in the search for hydrocarbons: the Controlled Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) survey. The surveys were conducted on prospect J1 and lead K in block PL023 and PL024.
The CSEM survey works through transmitting an electromagnetic field into the earth, which is modified by the presence of subsurface resistive layers. These changes in the field are measured and the resulting data is processed to provide information on the resistive structure of the subsurface. Because hydrocarbon accumulations are generally very resistive, this method could indicate the presence of oil and gas. The survey has shown there are resistive bodies co-incident with the prospects that had been identified by traditional seismic. The group still has much work to do to incorporate these results with recently acquired 2D seismic.
However, broker Kepler Teather & Greenwood Merrion, for one, believes the survey is very good news for Rockhopper. It says, although far from conclusive, it shows that any reservoir present in the targets could be charged with hydrocarbons and hence will remove significant risks in these prospects. Prior to conducting the CSEM, Scott Pickford (the independent petroleum consultant) had put the chance of success at prospect J1 of being 1 in 5 (although KT&GM believed this could well have been optimistic. This CSEM could lower the risks significantly and make the chance of success as high as 1 in 3. In the competent persons report at the IPO, the J1 prospect was deemed to have potential oil in place of 328 million barrels. On a 30 per cent recovery it would give recoverable reserves of approximately 100 million barrels.
But of course you do not know until you drill. Rockhopper also holds 7.5 per cent of Desire Petroleums licences PL003 and PL004, These blocks contain some interesting prospects and Desire plans a three well drilling programme here as soon as it can. The timing is problematic due to the shortage of rigs. Given these delays Rockhopper last year decided not to exercise an option to increase its equity in the Desire licences to 15 per cent. It stressed the decision was no reflection on its view of the prospectivity of the acreage, pointing out that it farmed in to the permits to gain early exposure to drilling, an option which no longer seems to be on the table.
The shortage of rigs and costs are a major problem for companies operating in the Falklands. Whats more the remote location will ensure a hefty mobilisation and demobilisation fee (during the last drilling campaign it took 74 days to tow a rig to the islands). It may be that the problems will have eased by the time Rockhopper comes to drill and there is always the possibility of farming out to help costs. Meanwhile the CSEM result is a positive boost on the way to drilling.