Worth taking a look at the TA and the Fundies.....

Bought a few Norseman Gold this morning. The weakness of the dollar and the rising SP of gold looks like it could help the mining explorers and producers over the autumn to next year.

Think Tom Winnifrith tipped this a few weeks back.


Target first stop 55p and then 60p resistance.

After it's recent fall I've bought back this morning.
2517

Not like me to get the timing right (so far anyway). Although NGL are going to be around 10K ozs short for year end June 2010 the guidance for June 2011 is unchanged, although a lot can happen over 12 months.
2517

Some strange prices going through this morning, 60.21p; 59.44p both way above current sp.
2517

I've almost certainly done the wrong thing, but have sold out for a 34% profit since 12th March.
2517

I need 62p

Have you tried asking a friend ha!ha------------------Good luck BB
2517

lol..

In the money now,,

NGL has gone the wrong way 4 me.

Watching for sub 40p to get back in.
2517

Production is going to be much less this year. Bad news. May go to 35p.

Looks way too cheap and looks like its not gone with the crowd of other small/mid producers so I suspect there is value here.

Good to see Tom W tipping it.



Buy Norseman Gold at 45.25p


Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com


Norseman (NGL) was originally tipped on t1ps.com by Tom Winnifrith back in July last year at 37p. If youd bought the shares then, you could be standing on gains of over 22%.

The Business

Norseman Gold (NGL) came to AIM via a reverse takeover in April 2007. The details are not relevant. It owns the Norseman Goldmine, which is in Western Australia and is the longest continuously running gold mining operation in the Land of High Culture. Gold was first found on the Norseman field in 1894 and since 1937 it has produced over 5.5 million ounces. Norseman’s holdings cover 1,614 square kilometres centred on the Norseman Township where most of its workers live and drink. The area has a superb infrastructure including site generated power, nearby rail links and airstrip and currently produces from three underground mines the Bullen, the Harlequin and the OK Decline.

Recent Trading

Norseman reported last month that it had increased its resources for a third consecutive year and reserves for a second consecutive year at the Norseman Gold Project including the replacement of depletion due to production. At 31st March 2010 Reserves were up by 5% to 0.42 million ounces (at 7.7 g/t gold) and resources (which include reserves) by 3% to 3.80 million ounces (at 5.3g/t gold) with this including the upgrading of 87,000 ounces from the Probable into the Proven Reserve category and 160,000 ounces from the Indicated and Inferred into the Measured Resource category. Additionally, the Resource and Reserve is expected to further expand during the current year due to the inclusion of ounces from the North Royal Open Pit optimisation, the Companys fourth mine and secondly, as the results from the drilling conducted by its four owned and operated underground diamond d rill rigs are received, interpreted and included.

Financials

The company recently announced a profit of Australian$3.11 million (c.1.8 million) for the year ended 30th June 2010, a sharp fall on the prior year as revenue fell from A$96.69 million to A$74.38 million (c.43 million). This was the result of gold production declining from 80,753 ounces in the prior year to 60,464 ounces and costs rising from A$715 per ounce to A$933 per ounce. However, significant development work means production should be back up and costs back down in the current year and as additional production is ushered in the company believes its cash balances will also be replenished. These were reduced to A$13.64 million (c.8 million, A$679,705 net) at 30th June 2010 from A$32.62 million (A$25.68 million net) a year earlier due to a net A$33.84 million (c.19.5 million) of investment spending during the year.


Conclusion

Norseman had a medium term target of producing 140,000 ounces per annum from its mines. More realistic for the current year is perhaps around 100,000 ounces of gold, with production at cash costs back to around what they were a couple of years ago. Even assuming production of just 100,000 ounces a year and a conservative profit margin of $400 an ounce then the company could be throwing off cash of $40 million a year (25.8 million). That makes the current valuation of 79.4 million look very cheap indeed. With the shares trading just ahead of my 42p limit buy price (having been t1pped at 37p in July 2009) Im currently recommending to those who bought at the time of the original tip that they hold. But if you want exposure to a well run, growing miner (and of course to gold) you could do worse than add Norseman to your portfolio.

Amazingly cheap looking at the Broker forecast following.

A P/E of just 6.6 going forward to 2011 then dropping to just 2.9 for 2012 ........derd cheap.

Norseman Gold PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Seymour Pierce
17-09-10 BUY 6.89 15.35 1.80

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 0.00 6.89 0.00 0.00 15.35 1.80
1 Month Change -12.24 -1.07 0.00 -27.15 -2.37 -0.28
3 Month Change -23.25 -3.97 -31.96 -0.79 0.83


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS -91.23% 629.98% 122.70%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 22.24m 35.15m
EBIT m 11.00m 23.80m
Dividend Yield 0.00% % 3.92%
Dividend Cover x x 8.55x
PER 48.46x 6.64x 2.98x
PEG -0.53f 0.01f 0.02f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

Trading halt on ASX....takeover or capital raised ?....or something else....?

Sods law. Would you believe it.

Capital raising.

And I bought in half an hour before.....

Mariana Resources H1 loss widens


Mariana Resources unveils a consolidated first half loss widens to 1.05m - up from 390,016 last time.

At the end of June the firm had cash and cash equivalents of 3.3m.

Chairman J. R. Horsburgh said: "Exploration over the first half of the 2010 year has added significant value to the company's portfolio of properties.

"A high level of activity has been maintained both through Mariana's own efforts and those in partnership with joint venturers."

This stock is far far too cheap, just look at the forecast P/E for 2011 and 2012.

A P/E of just over 3 for 2012, when are people going to wake up and realise its fallen back way behind other mid tier producers like cluff and centamin, highland etc.

A fantastic opportunity here...........

Norseman Gold PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Seymour Pierce
01-10-10 BUY 6.89 15.35 1.80

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 0.00 6.89 0.00 0.00 15.35 1.80

1 Month Change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -22.72 -3.83 -31.73 -0.86 0.77


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS -91.23% 629.98% 122.70%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 22.24m 35.15m

EBIT m 11.00m 23.80m

Dividend Yield 0.00% % 3.12%

Dividend Cover x x 8.55x

PER 60.91x 8.34x 3.75x

PEG -0.67f 0.01f 0.03f

Net Asset Value PS p p p

Technical
Technical indicators remain quite healthy overall for the Gold bull market
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 09:17 GMT

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/daily-commodities-update-technical/2010-10-14.html

Tipped in Shares Mag........

Norseman Gold (NGL:AIM) - BUY - 58.5p - Stop loss: 40.75p

The gold miner is addressing credibility issues so the market can focus on its plans to
more than double production in the next two years.