Accident Exchange (Epic Code ACE) is a provider of replacement vehicles to motorists involved in accidents where they are not at fault. It specialises in the high margin prestige end of the market, and appears to be gaining market share in a growing marketplace.

Key Points are:

Full-year results show the company is growing
rapidly, albeit from a small base. Sales rose fivefold
during the year to 4.1m, and pre-tax profits registered
a near six-fold increase to 1.14m.

The current financial year has got off to a very good
start, with activity levels exceeding management
expectations by a significant margin.

Net debt at the year-end of 3.9m, giving a gearing
figure of 212% relates almost entirely to spending on
new vehicles so is asset backed. We expect gearing to
be down to 161% at end-April 2005 and to 107% at
end-April 2006.

Almost two-thirds of the companys business is with
companys that subscribe to the ABI GTA terms of
agreement, reducing the overall risk profile.

On the key financial metrics of fleet utilisation, gross margin
and ROC, Accident Exchange ranks at or near the best of its
peer group. On a PER of 9 times for the current y/e April 2005
falling to under 7 times 2006 earnings, based on conservative
estimates, the company looks attractively priced in comparison
to its peer group.

The current financial year has got off to a very good
start with excellent activity levels. Fleet numbers are
up to 330 vehicles, against our y/e April 2005
forecast of 385, the annualised run rate on sales is
currently 10m, and the annualised run rate on pretax
profit is 3m.

This company clearly has a very promising future
ahead of it.

Website:
http://www.accidentexchange.com/

Reseach Notes:
http://www.accidentexchange.com/research/EdisonOutlookNote-June04.pdf
http://www.accidentexchange.com/research/HardmanNote-June04.pdf

Just trying to keep it on the front page Dil :-)

Not worried about the lack of holders, indication that it has been overlooked but I think Thursday will bring this stock to the attention of a few others.



capa

Nearly slipped off the front page there.

Another good rise this morning I see.

capa

Very steep rise already--do you see more upside or wait for a pullback??

moneyplus - to be honest I would now wait until the results are out tomorrow and see what the market reaction is. Chances are there will be profit takers so price may dip.

Longer term these are an excellent bet imo. If they come out with 3p eps tomorrow then we are looking at probably 9p eps for the year end, second half stronger than first. Hardmans estimates are for 80% growth for the following year, say 16.2p eps so forward looking p/e of 13. Cheap imo.

capa

Results are out.

2.8 eps which is slightly lower than I was hoping for but bang in the middle of brokers forecasts.

Maiden dividend nice surprise, shows confidence as does the chairmans statement about current trading.

Price marked up as always on good results and dropped as always ,as selling commences. Sold half mine at 2.21 in anticipation of this and will be looking to buy back once it has settled down.

capa

Must learn to sit on my hands. Back in with some more at 2.06

capa

Why ?

Nice trade capa.

Cheers Dil , yes, turned out well but at the time I thought I may have been a bit premature.

capa

Flicking through newspapers this a.m at the local newsagent, noticed Independent mentioned ACE with a "worth a punt" comment at the end.

capa

Would expect some positive comment tomorrow in the I.C after results last week.

Hardmans have updated the company website and have a revised eps of 8.8p for year end and 18.8p for the next, a p/e of less than 12 for this growth is amazingly cheap imo

capa

I'm still with you capa , have these been tipped again over the weekend ?

Don't think so Dil although Shares mag mentioned results in a positive light last week.

Good start to the week.

capa

Ta.

Click on this, select the latest Numis report, and prepare to purr ;o)


http://www.accidentexchange.com/randa.asp

Currently one of my biggest holdings for 2005

Juzzle, thanks. Numis reckoning on there being 30% upside, this could prove conservative if an upbeat trading statement is released.

capa

Happy xmas capa , off we go again.

Thanks Dil, and a merry xmas to you also.

capa

Have these been tipped somewhere ?

capa

This weeks shares mag has these as a buy with a single digit p/e for 2007 as being probable. Wonder if this explains the rise today.

capa