Sarantel the antenna company on the rise for the first time this morning sincce the float. In for a small amount to see what transpires

Thanks b,

Do you have any idea of the potential size of their market? It seems that they may be moving into Satellite Radio, which is bigger in the US than here. Any idea of handset sales there? Also, if it is true that US mobiles will need GPS receivers by law, then Sarantel antennas will win a large share as they have antennas which are dual purpose, ie terrestial and satellite capable (concerns over bandwidth?). I would like to get a fix on how many antennas they may end up selling in a couple of years as I think it will be considerably more than 4.5m. Maybe the potential exists for 45m if they can make them...once they have solved any teething problems with their new kit, they should be able to roll out another factory or two at much cheaper costs and get them up and running in less time than the first. I don't know how many months or years in the future this is however, and my guess is they need to act fast to get ahead of any competition.

45m antennas is going to turnover at least 45 per year. Current market cap is ~25m!!!

(smart phones sales are approx 40m for 2005 and I expect more of them to incorporate GPS very soon. The Sarantel antenna is taylor-made)

This share could really fly. PDYOR

PS I disagree about your comment about medium-term prospect (12-18 mths), with respect. There is large potential here for the long-term, especially if Sarantel can crack the MIMO (Multiple In Multiple Out) market. I see sales increasing 5-fold y-o-y for 2-3 few years based on increased take up of GPS and Sat Radio.

2006 5m
2007 25m
2008 125m
then saturation?

Wee Jock,

I do agree with much of what you say.....

my comment in regards to the 12-18 mth prospect is simply that if they can get into profit (and a decent one at that) within the next 18 months or so (or at least by this time next year), then the sp will obviously be a lot higher to reflect it......i believe that by that stage they will have a good track-record of delivery of promises; which would then lead people to believe them even further if they were to forecast continuous massive foreseeable future growth rates.......all simply leading to further short-term sp rise.......
then as you mention above - saturation (??) may be lurking around the corner... So i suppose i can extend my timing thoughts to about 2.5 yrs from now, but at this stage have no idea whether anything else that is either better, or simply renders slg's technology to be obsolete, is about to hit the market......another even better antenna perhaps ??? or even less wireless pieces of hardware in a couple of yrs time, so less demand for the antennas; seeing that the entire communications medium ( of phone/internet/tv/radio) seems to be slowly merging....(in a few yrs time will we be internetting, making phone calls, listening to radio, AND watching TV from one device which is the size of a palmtop ??? - with a desktop sitting at home in every room, where you simply load in your palmtop into the docking station and then have a wider screen - perhaps as wide as the really cool plasma's) - you only have to read about what BSkyB is up to recently......

I got into SLG b/c i thought that they would have loads of antennas to sell to the Nth American market (for reasons that you mention above)........and because i realised in early 2004 that the wireless computer concept will be a big hit.........and then due to reading an article earlier in the year about how VOIP did not allow the tracking of position/location of caller in cases of emergency calls in Australia etcetc.......a problem that gps installed into the computer/laptop would solve.....which would be bascially very similar to the US problem with the mobile phones........
Although going from this, who is to say the the EU won't follow with similar laws for their mobiles and or wirless computers.....(would be good).....

But as you say, need to know how much of a market they really can get.....well we could work out how many mobiles there are, and also how many wireless laptops there are, and then we would need to see which other countries are likely to follow the US law requirement for gps receivers.....(I need to find out how they were going to resolve that problem in Australia)...but then need to find out what the existing competition is like from other antenna manufacturers.....and needless to say that we always have the as-yet-undeveloped stuff lurking on our blindside.....

Thanks b,

Very interesting stuff. I think this is going to be a rollercoaster ride. The product is good, but will it sell? Will they be superceded? Will they be ripped off? All good questions. I especially take your point re wireless consolidation. This is a risk, but is also an opportunity. The all in one devices will need multiple antennas, or one antenna to do bluetooth, 3G, Wi-Fi, GPS, GPRS, etc. It will take time but no doubt that is where we are heading. I guess Sarantel's long-term success lies in whether or not their antenna ends up in one of these systems.

I am hurting at my recent losses but am hanging in there. Good luck, and I will be interested to know any further thoughts you have.

WJ

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