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Bankers 'drive up fuel cost' by gambling on crude oil prices 7/06/2009

Petrol prices hit their highest point for a year yesterday with motorists paying an average 100.08p a litre for petrol and 104.2p for diesel.

But one service station in West London was charging 139.9p for unleaded and 145.09 for diesel, according to petrolprices.com website.

Greedy City speculators gambling on the future cost of crude oil were blamed for driving up prices. Last January, petrol was 86.07p per litre and diesel 98.06p.

Yesterday motorists were warned average petrol prices could soar to 115p a litre.

The AA's Luke Bosdet said: "Speculators - many at banks bailed out by taxpayers - are pushing up oil prices, tipping the same taxpayers into deeper financial trouble."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/06/07/bankers-drive-up-fuel-cost-by-gambling-on-crude-oil-prices-115875-21420950/

US crude oil edged lower on Monday as US equities spent most of the day in the red and as the dollar rose against major currencies.

US light crude oil for July delivery fell 35 cents to settle at $68.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices briefly touched $70 a barrel on Friday after better than expected jobs figure boosted expectations of economic recovery and gave a stronger outlook for oil. Friday's rally on Wall Street also underpinned gains, however as US stocks struggled to get off the ground on Monday, demand for oil also remained low and even a last minute rally on Wall Street failed to bring prices higher in normal trading.

Oil did trade higher in after hours although analysts are warning that the 50% rise in oil prices in the last three months has been overdone.

Among precious metals gold lost its sparkle on Monday with Comex gold for August delivery settling $10.10 lower at $952.50 an ounce. The stronger dollar reduced golds appeal as an alternative investment.

Crude oil settled above $70 per barrel for the first time in seven months as the dollar retreated against major rivals.

Crude for July delivery rose $1.92 to settle at $70.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier it touched a high of $70.18.

The weaker dollar has helped oil prices more than double since the end of 2008 as a weaker buck normally makes commodities less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

A report by the Energy Information Administration also gave oil prices a boost. In its monthly report out Tuesday the EIA raised its outlook for this year's crude oil and gasoline prices.

Crude prices are now forecast to average around $58.70 a barrel this year compared with a previous prediction of $52 a barrel.

Crude oil futures rose after weekly government data showed a sharp drop in inventories.

Following the report US light crude for July rose $1.32 to settle at $71.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement for seven months.

The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks fell by 4.4m barrels in the week ended 5 June. Analysts had expected an increase of around 800,000 barrels.

The data follows a report earlier in the week from the American Petroleum Institute which said US crude supplies slumped by 6m barrels last week.

Meanwhile the EIA also showed gasoline inventories fell 1.6m barrels, bigger than analyst predictions of 1.6m drop.

ED: Not sure about the last sentence.

Oil futures briefly rose above $73 a barrel for the first time this year after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global demand forecast for the black stuff. It was the first time in ten months that the IEA had upped its projection of demand for oil.

The IEA estimate for daily oil demand worldwide was increased by 120,000 barrels to 83.3m barrels, on expectations of increased demand from the US and China. The effect on the oil price was tempered by expectations of increased output from non-OPEC producers, which the IEA expects to rise by 170,000 barrels a day.

The revision does not "necessarily imply the beginnings of a global economic recovery, the IEA report said, adding that the firmer trend may only be evidence of the recession hitting its low point.

The July contract for West Texas Intermediate closed at $72.68, its highest closing level since October 20 and up $1.35 on the day.

The price of gold was back on the rise again after going through a dull spell earlier this week. Golds allure was restored as investors turned their back on the US dollar, pushing the price of gold for August delivery up $7.30 to $962 an ounce.

Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday, snapping a three-session run-up, as the dollar strengthened against major currencies and OPEC announced that it was increasing monthly output for the second month running.

Crude for July delivery fell 64 cents to settle at $72.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The oil cartel said output in May, from its 12 member countries, rose on average to 28.27m barrels a day compared with 135,000 barrels a month earlier.

In its monthly report OPEC also said it expects global demand in 2009 to decline 1.6m barrels a day compared with the same time a year ago but added that it thinks the worst is over for the oil market.

On Thursday crude rose above $73 on hopes of economic recovery and after International Energy Agency upped its forecast for global oil demand.

NOW 103.9 P. 105.9 D. CRUDE WILL KILL OFF THE RECOVERY.

Crude oil fell on Monday settling around $70 a barrel as the dollar continued to gain against major currencies and US equities registered triple digit losses as economic data rekindled fears about the global downturn.

US light crude oil for July delivery dropped $1.42 to settle at $70.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Empire State index's measure of manufacturing in the New York area fell 5 points to -9.4 in June. In the previous month, the index was -4.55. New orders remained negative at -8.15 but better than May's -9.01.

Meanwhile reports of violence in Iran following the elections failed to stir up demand for oil as commodity prices fell across the board. The major oil producing country is holding an investigation into the election after accusations of ballot fraud.

The resurgent dollar took gold futures to their lowest level in over three weeks on Monday. COMEX gold for August delivery fell $13.20 to settle at $927.50 an ounce.

US crude oil futures fell again Tuesday but remained above the $70 a barrel mark ahead of weekly US inventory data.

Crude had gained in earlier trading, rising to a high of $72.77, but as mostly downbeat economic data poured through, jitters about the economic outlook returned and pushed prices lower.

US light crude oil for July delivery fell 15 cents to end at $70.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Traders digested data showing a bigger than expected drop of 1.1% in May industrial production from the month before.

Inventory data from The American Petroleum Institute was also expected to show a 1.7m decline in crude oil stockpiles. US Energy Information Administration data is due out Wednesday.

US crude oil settled higher Wednesday in a choppy session as prices mirrored a recovery on Wall St and after a weekly government report showed a bigger than expected drop in crude supplies.

US light crude oil for July delivery closed 56 cents higher at $71.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Futures had fallen to a low of $69 earlier in the session after the Energy Information Administration showed crude supplies fell by 3.9m barrels last week. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.7m barrels.

The EIA also said gasoline stocks rose by 3.4m barrels in the week ended 12 June, much more than the 650,000 barrels pencilled in by analysts.

Distillate inventories meanwhile rose by 300,000 barrels last week. Analysts expected an increase of 950,000 barrels. The weaker dollar also boosted demand for oil.

Oil prices inched higher on Thursday as disruptions in Nigeria raised supply concerns.

Positive data also helped on expectations of a turnaround in the economy, which will increase demand for oil.

Crude for July delivery rose 42 cents to $71.45 a barrel Thursday.

Royal Dutch Shell said that some oil production had been stopped after an attack on one of its pipelines on Wednesday in Nigeria. Analysts believe such attacks could increase in the coming weeks.

On the economic data front, there an improvement in the Philadelphia Fed index on regional manufacturing, up to -2.2 in June from -22.6 last month. Experts predicted a read of -17.

Great now analysts are orchestrating acts of terrorism, always thought they were financial terrorists.

Crude oil finished the week lower as traders weighed up data showing surplus fuel supplies against reports of more attacks on oil pipelines in Nigeria, the worlds seventh biggest oil exporter.

Oil for July delivery fell $1.82 to $69.55 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange after a choppy session with the contract rising to a high of $72.30 earlier in the day.

The contract, which is due to expire on Monday, was down 3.3% over the week. The spike in oil prices was prompted by news of an attack by Nigeria's main militant group MEND.

But it was concern about ample supplies and weak demand that later chipped away at demand for the black stuff.

On Wednesday the weekly EIA government report showed US gasoline supplies rose unexpectedly as refiners increased output to meet demand for the summer driving season. At the same time traders are worried that rising oil prices may put off many drivers this summer as the economic downturn continues. The EIA said demand for petroleum products over the last four weeks was down by 6% from the same time last year.

Commodities: Crude slips below $67

Crude oil fell below $67 a barrel as focus turned to the weak outlook for the global economy.

Recent data has signalled that the global economy is poised for a recovery and has helped take oil prices around double the level seen at the start of the year.

However as traders weighed up data showing surplus fuel supplies and winced at global forecasts at the World Bank, sentiment turned lower and worries about demand for the black stuff resumed.

US light crude oil for July delivery fell $2.62 to settle at $66.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The July contract expired Monday and the August contract becomes active on Tuesday.

The World Bank said the global economy is expected to shrink 2.9% this year, more than the 1.7% contraction forecast back in March. It also said global trade will drop by almost 10% this year while output is predicted to fall by 2.9%.

Commodities: Crude inches back towards $70

The weaker dollar, nerves ahead of weekly US energy supply data and disruptions from oil rich Nigeria stoked oil demand on Tuesday.

US light crude oil for August delivery rose $1.74 to settle at $69.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. But oil traders endured a choppy session with the contract falling a session low of $66.37 after disappointing US housing data.

Existing home sales rose 2.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77m, from a downwardly revised 4.66m in April, but it was still lower than expectations. Economists had predicted an increase to about 4.82m.

There were also jitters ahead of the latest statement from the Federal Reserve.

Oil prices have jumped from below $40 a barrel at the start of this year to around $70 on the back of optimism that an economic recovery is in place.

Commodities: Gold moves ahead

Gold moved higher though gains were tempered late on after the dollar rallied on the back of comments from the Fed.

Before the Fed's comment, worries about higher inflation made gold, seen as a hedge to rising prices, more attractive to investors. But gold slipped back slightly after the Fed said inflation will remain subdued for sometime.

Gold price for August delivery rose $10.10 to finish at $934.40 an ounce.

Oil prices fell below $69 after the Fed kept interest rates near zero.

Crude had received support earlier after a report showed US gasoline stocks rose by 3.9m barrels in the week to June 19, which was above forecasts. Distillates stocks hit ten-year highs, while crude stocks fell.

Commodities: Nigerian attack boosts oil price

The price of crude was back above $70 a barrel for the first time in a week after a Royal Dutch Shell pipeline in Nigeria was attacked by militants. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) claimed responsibility for the attack on the pipeline which supplies Shell's Bonny terminal. A spokesman for Shell was unable to confirm whether the attack had caused an interruption to production.

Demand for oil has also been boosted this week by news of refinery problems in Texas, USA. Exxon Mobil has shut a fluid catalytic cracker at its Baytown, Texas, refinery while earlier this week Valero Energy and Marathon Oil suffered power interruptions at their Texas refineries. The Baytown refinery is the largest in the USA and can process more than half a million barrels of oil a day.

Crude oil for August delivery rose $1.56 to $70.23 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest level since 18 June, with the decline in the value of the dollar also contributing to the rise in the price of the black stuff.

The slide in the value of the dollar also made gold a more attractive investment. The August futures contract for gold rose $5.10 to $939.50 an ounce in New York while the spot price rose $6.91 to $938.50 an ounce in London. Dealers said indications that the Federal Reserve intends to keep its key lending rate at its historically low level for an extended period added to the appeal of gold, with some suggesting that China would switch to buying gold bullion in preference to US government debt.

Silver was also in demand, rising more than 13 cents in London trading to just over $14 an ounce, while copper reached its highest level in a week, with the September contract rising 3.5 cents to $2.316 a pound.

as i posted on FTSE thread ......

OIL and connected issues
it is plain for all to see that crude is now heading back to levels where most regions will deem it worthwhile to re-commence development and similar work ..... and you can count Saudi into that equation too, for Aramco, who control these things in The Kingdom, shut up shop 4/6 months ago.

our business has a peripheral though relevant interest in these aspects, and market intelligence is that, though recovery is still pretty fragile, it is assuredly happening across quite a broad spectrum.

to my mind, that makes the likes of Lamprell an even more likely t/o target, and i dare say Kentz and others fall into a similar category.

Petrofac will be an undoubted beneficiary, as well as a probable predator.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil fell toward $62 on Wednesday, on course for its sixth consecutive fall and longest losing streak since mid-December, after data showed larger-than-expected builds in U.S. products stocks, reflecting little sign of a recovery in oil demand.

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Figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed distillate stocks jumping by a much higher-than-expected 3.4 million barrels, while gasoline inventories rose 767,000 barrels against a forecast 600,000-barrel build.

Combined with a 1.4 million barrels fall in crude stocks -- less than the expected 2.4 million barrels decrease -- the oil data shows little recovery in demand from the world's largest oil consumer at a time when talk of "green shoots" has come under renewed scrutiny.

U.S. light crude for August delivery fell 93 cents to $62.00 a barrel by 0621 GMT (2:21 a.m. EDT), having settled $1.12 lower at 62.93 a barrel on Tuesday, its fifth straight day of losses.

London Brent crude fell 80 cents to $62.43 a barrel.

"The middle distillates numbers are terrible. It is normal that stocks are going up at this time of the year but we are already at record levels," said Tony Nunan, risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.

"It looks like gasoline demand had started to get better and now suddenly looks bad. It could be for a couple of reasons: it could be a price response or it could just be that the economy is just not out of the woods yet," he added.

Prices could fall further if the Energy Information Administration , which will release its weekly inventory data at 1420 GMT (10:30 a.m. EDT), shows similarly bleak data.

Oil prices have fallen almost 15 percent from their brief surge above $73 a barrel in late June on worries a rebound in global fuel demand may be far off, after economic optimism helped lift prices from lows under $33 struck in December.

But questions over the pace of economic recovery continue to be raised, with the second-quarter's rally in energy and equity markets now petering out.

U.S. stocks fell to a 10-week low on Tuesday after a member of the Obama administration's economic advisory panel said the United States should plan to possibly provide a second round of stimulus funds to prop up the economy.

More bearish data came from Japan, where the value of the country's core private-sector machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, hitting a record low in May, sending the Nikkei average < .N225> closing down 2.4 percent to a six-week low.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan < .MIAPJ0000PUS> dropped 1.6 percent.

Potentially curtailing trading, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said on Tuesday that the agency will hold hearings in the next few weeks to seek comments from consumers and market players on whether to set position limits on all commodity futures contracts.

The top regulator of U.S. futures markets is considering a clampdown on excessive speculation in energy and commodity trading by restricting holdings of big players, part of a broader move by the Obama administration to stabilize financial markets.

Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since January on Demand Concern
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By Yee Kai Pin and Ben Sharples

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, headed for its biggest weekly decline since January on concern a prolonged global recession will sap demand for energy.

Oil has dropped 10 percent this week on speculation fuel consumption in the U.S., the biggest energy-using nation, will remain subdued. Gasoline stockpiles increased over the Independence Day weekend, the peak of the summer driving season, a July 8 report showed. Yesterday, futures touched $59.25 a barrel, the lowest intraday price since the start of the year.

The No. 1 factor is still demand -- it all goes back to the economy, said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at brokers Newedge in Tokyo. Its possible well test yesterdays low. If the market goes down further from here, we could see more selling orders.

Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $59.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $60.04 at 2:41 p.m. in Singapore, poised for a fourth week of decline. Futures rose 0.5 percent to $60.41 yesterday, snapping six days of losses, the longest losing streak this year.

Crude oil bulls are hanging in there, albeit by the thinnest of margins, said Stephen Schork, president of Villanova, Pennsylvania-based consultant Schork Group Inc. If the bulls are going to put up a defense, this is where it will occur. If they fail, the path toward a $40-handle will be wide open.

Reduced Appeal

The dollar rose against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Gold slid July 8 to a two-month low of $905.10 an ounce and is headed for a second weekly decline.

The dollar traded at $1.3965 per euro at 2:43 p.m. in Singapore, up from $1.4020 in New York yesterday.

Oil may fall next week on speculation the global recession and payroll cuts will constrain demand and keep U.S. supplies ample, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Nineteen of 41 analysts surveyed, or 46 percent, said futures will decline. Nine expect the market will be little changed and 13 forecast that oil prices will rise.

With a poor economic outlook for the future, oil is going to be pressured to come down in price, said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle. Just as exuberance pushed oil higher in the second quarter, pessimism could easily push oil lower in the third quarter.

U.S. gasoline inventories climbed 1.9 million barrels to 213.1 million last week, an Energy Department report on July 8 showed. Stocks of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, climbed 3.74 million barrels to 158.7 million, the biggest increase since January. The gain left distillate stockpiles 30 percent higher than the five-year average.

IEA Report

The International Energy Agency will release its monthly Oil Market Report today. The Paris-based agency June 11 raised its global oil demand forecast for the first time in 10 months, citing signs the economic slowdown is abating.

Gasoline for August delivery in New York dropped 0.8 percent to $165.08 a gallon at 2:30 p.m. Singapore time.

Brent crude for August settlement on Londons ICE Futures Europe exchange fell as much as 53 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $60.57 a barrel. Prices are down 7.7 percent this week.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net; Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 10, 2009 02:49 EDT